North Korea has demonstrated with underground tests that it can explode an atomic bomb; it has dramatically demonstrated in two tests in July that it can fire a missile powerful enough to reach the continental United States.
What Pyongyang hasn’t yet proven is whether it can marry the two to create a workable nuclear weapon capable of striking US targets.
For several years, weapons and non-proliferation experts have speculated that Pyongyang had succeeded in “miniaturizing” the atomic device sufficient to fit on the top of a ballistic missile that could reliably reach the target and survive atmospheric reentry.
North Korea, of course, has long maintained that it has accomplished this feat, which is in fact relatively common among nuclear weapons states. Many North Korea watchers are reluctantly coming around to the notion that they can do this.
The Washington Post recently reported that there was a consensus among the “intelligence community” that North Korea has accomplished this feat and could hit the US, Japan and South Korea with nuclear arms in line with leader Kim Jong-un’s threat to engulf America in an “unimaginable sea of fire.”
The Japanese, however, are not willing to go that far in their assessment. The latest defense ‘White Paper’ (Defense of Japan 2017) says only that North Korea has made “significant headway” in its nuclear arms development.
The paper acknowledges its “possible” ability to develop miniaturized nuclear warheads that can fit on the tips of its missiles.
It is notable that not everyone believes that Pyongyang’s two missile tests in July could really reach the continental US. The Russians have published wildly different figures for the flight duration and trajectory of North Korea’s recent tests, suggesting that they could not have reached the United States.
The consensus of the intelligence community seems conclusive enough, although there are quibbles as to whether Pyongyang’s missiles have a guidance system that can find the target or a reentry vessel that can prevent the warhead from burning up in the lower atmosphere.
The July test rocket came close enough to Japan to be tracked and photographed from its northern island of Hokkaido. It reputedly showed the warhead breaking up. The missile was launched on a very high trajectory, which means it travelled only about 500 miles to fall into the Sea of Japan.
There of course is one way that North Korea could prove conclusively that it has reliable and workable nuclear weapons. They could put a live atomic bomb on the top of a missile, fire it somewhere and explode it in the atmosphere for all to see.
This is what China did in 1966 to demonstrate that its initial 1964 atomic bomb test was not a fluke but a real weapon. Of course, the Chinese have a vast desert hinterland for testing; North Korea has no such desolate and remote atomic bombing range.
North Korea’s missile program has long been hampered by the fact that the country is small and it cannot test long-range missiles without violating powerful neighbors’ air space.
That, however, hasn’t stopped Pyongyang in the past. In the late 1990s, North Korea fired long-range rockets directly over Honshu, Japan’s largest and most populated island. They splashed down in the North Pacific Ocean after failing to put a satellite into orbit.
North Korea later moved its launch site from its eastern to far western region, and shot them on a due south trajectory, only momentarily passing over Japanese territory in the southwestern Ryukyu Islands and landing in waters northwest of the American fortress island of Guam.
Guam is now in North Korea’s sights again. Less than two days after the publication of the Washington Post story and US President Donald Trump’s threat to rain “fire and fury” on North Korea, Pyongyang unveiled an astonishingly detailed plan to lob missiles near the vital US military outpost of Guam.
North Korea said that it would fire a volley of four intermediate-range missiles, presumably bracketing the American outpost, landing 30-40 kilometers from the island. Pyongyang specifically noted that the rockets’ trajectories would cross Japanese air space in Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures.
In the past year, no fewer than seven North Korean missiles have fallen within 200 nautical miles of Japan’s coast off Akita prefecture without soliciting any major reaction from Tokyo other than a mild protest. Pyongyang obviously figures that it has taken Japan’s measure.
North Korea has long feared Guam, which in its view is a nest of pirates. The island is home to Anderson Air Force base, which is the base for B-1 and B-52 bombers which routinely fly missions along the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas and can carry nuclear weapons.
American military facilities occupy nearly 30% of the island that hosts at least 6,000 US military members. It is also the home port for US nuclear submarines that would likely be deployed any conflict situation.
Pyongyang did not specify the launch site or the time of the threatened launches near Guam, which some speculate will come before the end of August. The last time North Korea set of a volley of four missiles was in June, which potentially aimed at American bases in Japan.
Such a test would have a lot of appeal for Kim Jong-un: It would exercise the troops in his Strategic Rocket Force, also known as the Missile Guidance Bureau, thumb his nose at Japan and irritate the US by appearing to stage a test attack on one of its most important bases in Asia.
It would also possibly answer some of the earlier questions about Korea’s capabilities for long-range flight, especially if all four missiles manage to hit their targets or close to them. North Korea would thus not need to conduct a more difficult atmospheric test to demonstrate it capabilities.
The next move in such a scenario, for which Trump recently said the US is “locked and loaded”, would be crucial. Guam, as recently deployed in South Korea, has Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missiles.
That would create an exquisite decision for the US: Should it attempt to shoot the missiles down or let them pass unimpeded rather than risk shooting and missing?
Only very stupid politicians cannot understand that leaving NK alone is the best policy. NK is not expansionist and Kim Jong-un seems to be happy with being the absolute emperor of NK. It’s obvious that NK would never use its nuclear weapons except if its survival was at risk, so let them have them. The danger of the US starting a nuclear war is much bigger than that of NK doing so.
What are the Americans doing in the southern part of Korea. This is not American territory. It is part of Korea. It is the property of the Koreans. The American soldiers are occupying part of Korea, they are invading Korea. They must be removed out of Korea. Let the Korean look after their country. The Americans claim that their soldiers are in southern Korea to protect it against other Koreans. What is this bullshit? The Koreans do not need foreign soldiers to "protect" part of their country. It is like someone who declares that he is "protecting" the wife of another person.
If the North Korea has a nuclear bomb or rockets and guiding systems to deliver the bombs to Guam only NK knows. Everyone seem to agree a pure conventional war will result in millions of lost lives. US Army war game simulations prove a conventional Korean war is not feasible. The Rand Corporation military experts share this assessment. We know North Korea (NK) has huge stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons. We know NK have several hundred long-range artillery cannons.
In my point of view there is a lot of politics going on, intended for domestic audiences in NK and the US. Japan and South Korea should ask the question: “Would we be more secure without the US bases on our soil?” We can clearly see from the rhetoric the US do NOT mind having a war if it is on foreign soil.
China seems to be the only adult in the room. Let us hope they calm the issues down.
I agree with Micheal Chan’s assesment completely. American troops are not needed in Korea or Japan. Neither country needs nor secretly wants foreign soldieras on their land any longer. Many people se this NOT as a protective measure but a continued occupation of the two countries. It does no good for the relationships for anyone. The number of troops in Japan is about double that of those in Korea but this is nothing and both The ROK and Japan are capable of defending themselves. I have been litening for some time to the militerists and the politicians in the US talking. These people need to study the history of both nations more. The Koreans have had to fight for their country in "real" terms more than any country in Asia. They have a better record at defending Korea than any foreign army has. They chased out the Northern tribes, the Chinese and the Mongols Hideyoshi and his Japanese army.It is interesting to note that in the whole history of the Mongol Empire the Koreans were they only nation that defeated and KILL a Mongol general. General Sartai. Nw that should be an indication of how resilient the people of Korea are. The Japanese for their part also have a record of able defense of their own lands. One other point We often bring up the great shame of the years from 1939 to 1945 in refernce to the "iwanbu or (ianfu in Japanese). The 200,00 comfort women. Well in 72 years of American occupation of South Korea and Japan there is a long history of women forced into prostitution for American soldiers by the deals between Americans and the Japanese Yakuza or in Korea with the Kkangpae. How many? Well after 2 years they fibure more than 2 million between the two countries and others say that is a conservative number. More tragic are the children who are left behind by their American fathers. Insoo-ni and Adriana Miyamoto have become famous but they are exceptions. But how about the thousands who have not and are considered as lower than the average person in society. These are the results of being "protected" by foreign military forces. I have seen these things with my own eyes having graduated from a Japanese university and I lived long in East Asia. My words are not those of some acholar sitting in a white tower somewhere and living in his books.
This article is typical———–FAKE NEWS!!
Applies to commenters.If you claim that North Korea is not a threat, why Russia and China do not support North Korea.Quite the contrary they are sanctioned against North Korea.
On the other hand North Korea remains a "buffer zone" for both China and The Russian Federation. If there were to be a conflict between North and South in Korea and the South were to win this would cause consternation in China and The Russian Federation. That is because it would put the occupying Americans right on the Chine Border and that much closer to Russia. The Chinese would probably see this as an effort to surround China with a ring of American missiles as they did with Russia in Eastern Europe. As Michael Chan points out the United States does not belong either ethnically, liguistically or politically in East Asia. They are even today considered by many in the Koreas, Japan, China and even Russia as intruders or in some cases even occupiers. The presnt bellicose attitude of the USA certainly would and is, causing unwanted problems in the region. The Americans once in a foreign country are more difficult to get rid of than an infestation of ticks, as shown in their insistanced to station troops in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
US neocons want to start a war but preferably using non US troops at the front line. South Korea and Japan are resisting US manipulations. Some Indian politicians and generals however appear to have been bought over or blackmailed by CIA in provoking China in Doklam.
You hit the point – said everything in a few words.
Serán estos 4 misiles los 4 ginetes del Apocalipsis?