Should Japan buy the Arrow-3 missile defense system from Israel? Would Israel sell it to Japan? These are critical questions because Japan’s missile defense capabilities today are severely limited.
Japan has the US THAAD system, and it has Patriot PAC-3. Japan also has the Aegis naval BMD featuring the latest SM-3 (RIM-161) Block II-A missiles that can hit tactical ballistic missiles.
But none of these systems are ideal as the North Korean missile threat continues to ramp up, and as North Korea continues to pursue atomic and hydrogen bombs that can be mounted on a long-range missile.
The latest development was the successful launch of an ICBM-like missile by North Korea. Luckily, observers say that the missile’s nose-cone broke up on reentering the atmosphere indicating that the North Koreans may not yet have good reentry technology for the warheads of its exoatmospheric long-range missiles.
In any case, until North Korea can actually run a successful test series of an atomic nuclear warhead on reentry, there is no way to judge accuracy and reliability. This means it will be some time before North Korea really poses a nuclear missile threat unless, of course the North Korean’s get help from China or Russia. Anyone looking at the North Korean displays of missile prowess, or the test firings must come away with the strong sense that North Korea is getting a lot of outside help in their missile development.
The US has been silent about the various transfers of technology to North Korea, perhaps for diplomatic reasons. But the practical consequence is that the timetable of the North Korean threat depends on whether or not these under-the-table transactions continue. (We must always keep in mind that as relations between the US and Russia, and US and China deteriorate, the likelihood of technology transfers increases.)
Meanwhile the US, South Korea and Japan need to prepare for the coming danger, whether it is in a year or two or further out in time. Given the proximity of South Korea and Japan to the threat, warning time is minimal and there is no way to tell whether the launch is a test or an actual attack.
THAAD as an air defense system can tackle intermediate range ballistic missiles, but only in the terminal phase of their flight. Because the US uses a hit to kill technology (meaning that the THAAD interceptor missile must actual hit the incoming missile, not just explode somewhat near the missile), accuracy is everything but it is difficult in the final stages of flight because of wobbling by the incoming missile and due to winds and other atmospheric conditions affecting the THAAD interceptor. That may explain why THAAD tests have only been partially successful.
The Israeli Arrow 3 system is different. Supported by the Israeli contractor Israel Aerospace Industries and by Israel’s IMI Systems both partnering with Boeing in the United States, Arrow 3 is an evolved system with sophisticated long-range radars and command and control systems. Arrow 3 is the only ballistic missile defense system that has shot down an enemy rocket hundreds of miles from where it was launched. Unlike THAAD, the Israeli Arrow 3 is an exoatmospheric system that can hit an enemy missile above 100 km and at a range of more than 2,400 km (60+ miles altitude, around 1,500 miles distant).
It turns out that the Arrow 3 range is perfect to meet Japan’s requirements for missile defense. Arrow 3 has a special type of hit to kill system that does not have the limitations of THAAD. (The earlier version of Arrow had a proximity warhead, better suited to lower altitude hits.)
Japan should consider seriously buying Arrow 3, but it will probably require a deal with the United States and Israel where Arrow would be under the security control of the United States. Israel rightly worries deeply about any compromises to its strategic systems, and Japan has a poor internal security infrastructure that is not good enough to provide the needed assurances to either the US or Israel. However, if the security issue can be bridged than Japan would be well-served by Arrow 3.
Indeed, as the North Koreans may have to enter into a warhead testing program that is a much greater threat than missile tests with dummy warheads, the US, Japan and South Korea must think seriously about disrupting North Korea’s testing program. One way to do that is to shoot down North Korea’s test flight missiles. THAAD may not be able to do the job, nor will Aegis and certainly not Patriot. Arrow 3 is the only defensive system around that is likely to knock out North Korea’s test flights and, inter alia perhaps convince the North Korean’s that their missile-nuclear gambit is a clear and present danger to their survival.
Anyone here that does not pedal for Israel you can join the BDS movment. Start off by turning off your computers and throwing away yoru cell phones. Stay clear of 85% of medical technology. Make sure your wife AVOIDS having an Amnio if she is pregnant and avoid Catheters and most hospital diagnostics. Thats all Israeli tech. Anyone undergoing cancer treatements. Stay clear of Interefeuron and anyone with MS stay clear of the meds…. This is all propganda Israeli medical technology you do NOT need. And we will thank you for not using it as to helping out the planet. We’re happy to oblige.
SO MANY IGNORANT people here that do not undestand Israeli technology. The majority of all high tech weapons used by the US are developed by the most leading technically advanced and best defended country in the world. ISRAEL. Than again were not sure if this is just hidden anti semtism around a topic where their weapons knowledge is as advanced as their understanding of Israeli technology. They probably have NO clue that not only could they not live a day without Israeli technology but that they were born healthy as a result of it.
WRONG.500% totally wrong. Where do you get your information from the dollar store?
James Agapios Ah James, where is the love?
Could it be that intercepting the missles over NK might in fact be a good choice?
Moe Curly ACTUALLY IT WAS IRAN’S(AND NK’S) NEWEST RPXY HAMAS.
Japan must act agressively in fortifying its military defensive and offensive capabilities or it will be too late. A 3rd world war is incomparable to the previous wars that is why Japan must adapt, intensify and reinvent itself to address the new threats associated in this eventuality.
bfgh
Stephen Bryen , that’s why Arrow 3 works
@Stephen Bryen ….my suggestion is that USA stops it’s threat to N. Korea, stop it’s twice s a year military drill with S.Korea. remove it’s troops and open up trade. What brought Soviet Union down was opening of trade not the Pershing II missiles in Europe. Sanctions and threats will only empower their regime. Lastly, stop peddling products from the most racist apartheid regime on Earth.
I am not peddling for anyone and you are dead wrong in making an unsub stantiated assertion. I was the Director of the Defense Technology Security Administration and a Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and I headed a major defense company in the U.S. In no case do I have any connection to the Arrow program.
idiotic comment not worth responding to
It is not a sales pitch. I don’t work directly or indirectly for any company or government involved. Yes I like the Arrow 3 because it works. We need to do something to strengthen defenses against N.K. Any suggestions? I really resent your comment it was a sales pitch.
Can Asia times clean up it’s act and stop using Israeli terrorist blogger like Stephen Breyer, Goldman, Spengler… And other Natanyahu paid Zionist? … How low do you plan to go?
Perry Kamath There never has been a PLO bombardment, so what nonsense are you talkng about?
"as the head of the Jewish Institute for National Security affairs"
Now, why would Stephen Bryen not mention this affiliation in his sales pitch here?
Who is this guy Stephen Bryen? Can’t you guys see he is peddling for the Israelis?
Israel has shown during the last conflict with PLO bombardment that it can shoot down every missiles that was directed against Israeli towns. That rocket system was much LESS complex compared to Arrow . Have Americans proven their system better in combat conditions?
Sadly, another article by a so called journalist peddling "FAKE NEWS"!!
" THAAD may not be able to do the job, nor will Aegis and certainly not Patriot. "
If Bryen is correct, as an ignorant I should understand that these US systems are useless, right ? So who is helping NK, Israel ? Maybe yes, just enough to get something flying; and they are smart enough to kill two birds with an Arrow 3. Meantime, Moscow and Beijing are sharing a great fun for the Anglo / japs.