As Chinese and Indian security forces square off on a remote plateau in the Himalaya mountains, it is has become clear over two months into the showdown that it’s not really about China building a road in an area disputed between China and Bhutan.
As always when China is involved in a confrontation near or across its frontiers — be it the border war with India in 1962, skirmishes with the Soviets along the Amur river in 1969, or military raids across Vietnam’s northern border in 1979 — there is a hidden political agenda.
In 1962, China wanted to assert its influence in the Third World where until then India had been a leading voice. In 1969, China had to show it would not hesitate to challenge their main enemy at that time, “the Soviet revisionists”, by military means. In 1979, China sought to “punish” Vietnam for intervening in Cambodia and ousting the pro-Beijing Khmer Rouge regime.
This time, China is attempting to drive a wedge between Bhutan and its traditional ally India, China’s main and traditional geopolitical rival. Most recently, China is frustrated with India’s reluctance to join its One Belt One Road infrastructure development initiative. Unresolved border issues are another bilateral problem, as is the long-time presence of the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan government in exile in India.
In June, Chinese construction workers protected by People’s Liberation Army soldiers moved into the Doklam plateau, an area which the Bhutanese claim as their territory and which the Chinese call Donglang and likewise claim as theirs. India does not claim Doklam, but supports Bhutan on the unresolved border issue.
Less than 50 kilometers from the stand-off area is the Bhutanese town of Haa, the center for the Indian Military Training Team, or IMTRAT, which is responsible for training the Royal Bhutan Army (RBA). Doklam is also located on the western flank of the Chumbi valley, the narrow salient between western Bhutan and the mountainous Indian state of Sikkim.
Any Chinese attempt to widen that corridor, giving its security forces more room to maneuver in a sensitive border area, would be perceived as a threat to India’s security.
India obviously interpreted China’s move as a provocation and moved troops into the disputed area to disrupt the construction of the road. China has not said why it is building the road in an area it claims to have held for “centuries.” The sensitive construction comes at a time China is revving up its US$1 trillion One Belt One Road global infrastructure building spree.
India’s reaction to the roadworks may have been exactly what the Chinese wanted. It appears that India was left with no choice but to walk right into a diplomatic trap. The move has made India appear as the belligerent party and at the same time caused concern in Bhutan where India’s military presence is a politically sensitive issue.
There is currently a good all-weather road down the Chumbi valley. Nathula, the mountain pass where China meets the Indian state of Sikkim, is already a major post for cross-border trade with India and many Chinese goods are re-exported to Bhutan. However, direct imports from India account for 75% of Bhutan’s total trade, while 85% of its exports are sent to India.
There is some trade across the Bhutan border with China as well, with Bhutanese carrying medicinal herbs on yak or horseback to China and returning with electronics and other manufactures. But the volume of that trade is small and the road China intends to build does not appear to be for expanding trade — especially since Bhutan and China, despite more than twenty rounds of talks, have not yet demarcated their shared border.
In recent years China had begun courting Bhutan, the only neighboring country with which Beijing does not yet have diplomatic relations. That courtship, some analysts suggest, could reset the prevailing India-dominated balance of power in the Himalayas.
Throughout modern history, Bhutan has depended heavily on India. The tiny Himalayan kingdom is tied to Delhi through treaties signed with the British colonial power in 1910 and independent India in 1949 and 2007.
The first two treaties gave Bhutan a high degree of internal autonomy but its foreign relations were still guided by India, in effect making it an Indian protectorate. The 2007 treaty granted Bhutan more independence over its foreign affairs.
India not only trains the Royal Bhutan Army, but also pays the salaries of its troops. And the Border Road Organization, an outfit affiliated with the Indian Army, has built roads all over Bhutan. For India’s security planners, Bhutan is of utmost strategic importance as it lies south of the crest of the Himalayas, or the northern line of defense against China.
China’s claim to territories south of that defense line was the pretext for a massive Chinese attack in 1962, where Chinese troops invaded large areas in the eastern Himalayas and then withdrew after inflicting a crushing defeat on Indian army units in the area.
Despite its long-time dependence on India, Bhutan has in recent decades gained more independence. It became a member of the United Nations in 1971 and its 2007 treaty with India — a revised version of that signed in 1949 — states only that the two countries “shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interests of the other.”
In a bid to counter India’s influence in Bhutan, China has deployed its usual “soft diplomacy.” Chinese circus artists, acrobats and footballers have recently traveled to Bhutan, and a limited number of Bhutanese students have received scholarships to study in China.
Tourism has expanded as well. Nineteen Chinese tourists visited Bhutan a decade ago; now it is more than 9,000 a year, or 19% of its annual total arrivals. Chinese travelers have become a major source of income for the small kingdom of less than a million people.
Last August, Bhutan and China representatives met for yet another round of border talks. According to a statement issued by the Chinese foreign ministry after the talks: “Although Bhutan and China have not established diplomatic relations yet, it will not hold back the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.
The Bhutanese side is willing to continue deepening exchanges in such fields as tourism, religion, culture and agriculture and further lift the cooperation level with China.”
The current conflict has thus placed Bhutan on the horns of a complicated dilemma. On June 29, the Bhutanese foreign ministry stated publicly that “[China’s] construction of the road inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of the agreements and affects the process of demarcating the boundary between the two countries.”
A month later, Bhutan’s ambassador to India, Vetsop Namgyel, attended a function at China’s New Delhi embassy to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. His top-level attendance was significant considering China and Bhutan do not yet share diplomatic relations.
On August 2, the Chinese foreign ministry issued a new statement saying that “the China-Bhutan boundary issue is one between China and Bhutan. It has nothing to do with India” and “India has no right to make territorial demands on Bhutan’s behalf.” India, the Chinese foreign ministry went on to say, has not only “violated China’s sovereignty” but also “challenged Bhutan’s sovereignty and independence.”
China has suggested in principle that it would give up its other territorial claims in northern Bhutan if Thimphu agrees to give up its claim to the Doklam plateau — a proposal that India would see as detrimental to its national interests and a violation of the 2007 treaty it holds with Bhutan.
At the same time, Bhutan is eager to lessen its dependence on India and show the world that it is a truly independent nation. The Doklam dispute has therefore led to mixed reactions in Bhutan. The Bhutanese don’t want the Chinese so close to home, but India’s overt intervention could be viewed as reverting to the status of an Indian protectorate.
That view could influence local electoral politics. P. Stobdan, a well-known Indian security analyst, argued in a July 11 article for the Indian website The Wire that, “the next election in Bhutan in October 2018 will be fought on pro- versus anti-Indian slogans.”
That would no doubt be music to China’s ears — and if so Beijing would have achieved exactly what it envisaged when it started constructing an obscure road to nowhere in Doklam.
That metaphor didn’t make any sense…if we’re going to talk about this diplomatic issue along the lines of sexual interaction, Doklam would be the ‘girl’ and she is is already promised to China or Bhutan (they are the claimants). China being the stronger ‘man’ does what he wants and Bhutan keeps quiet. India, seeing how a nice pretty girl is now being advanced by China says ‘Hey, that’s Bhutan’s girl, you keep your hands off her!’ and then starting having his way with the girl, who India has no claim to in the first place. The girl wasn’t asking for it, but India thrusts his ‘manhood’ into Doklam without consent. The fault lies with the rapist, raping some stranger while she ‘lies with one of her lawful partners’.
Democratic India???? With 25% elected criminals????
China has always been an authoritarian state. The emperor’s demanded absolute obedience. This served the nation well as long as the emperor can lead and provided for the people’s welfare. If not the Chinese have revolutions to throw out the despots and established new dynasties. So far this served the nation well as China still exist after so many millennia. Whether the authoritarian government can continue depends on the Chinese people, not outsiders. Best that foreigners butt off from interfering.
James Denk Is this Wangcha fellow the same one, who in his first anti-India tirade on Doklam, established beyond any doubt in his mind that India did not have the ballz to stand up to China at Doklam and as such denied that India was there in the first place to resist China building a road on Bhutanese territory? That China would run roughshod over India? Thought so. He is anti-India through and through and does not represent the Bhutanese government. Nor the voice of the people of Bhutan. But, yes, a voice in the wilderness.
sonny
hey dolt,
Im still waiting for your evidence on ‘China supporting NE insurgency’ !
You ‘fight insurgency’ by kidnapping young women ‘suspects’ in the middle of the night and gang rape them in front of their families ?
Is this supposed to be ‘carrot’ or ‘stick’ ?
What shameless twit !
Sat Mohabir
You can go ask him.
Sat Mohabir
How could anybody take Sonam seriously when he call India
a ‘democracy’ ?
https://www.quora.com/Will-Nagaland-and-Manipur-get-freedom-from-India
John Brown I don’t see how my sexual history or Jesus Christ have anything to do with this discussion. I suggest you learn more creative ways express your rage and go out more, instead of revealing your own insecurities online with random bouts of rubbish.
Why trespass into Chinese controlled Doklam in the first place if you want to talk. You can’t tell the house owner to negotiate after you break into his house and refuse to leave.
Will India allow the PLA to cross the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh to stop road constructions which is altering the status quo? And refuse to leave until India agrees to negotiate.
Husain Bandookwala so far India records speak for itself. See link https://robertlindsay.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/india-as-an-imperialist-country/ and https://huesofasoul.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/sikkim-an-untold-story-of-annexation/
Whose hidden agenda? India trying to flood Bhutan with troops by claiming to defend Bhutan against China. Luckily Bhutan saw through the treachery, so no invitation to the Indians to intervene. Once in Bhutan the Indian army will never leave.
Bhutan has seen the fate of Sikkim. To pre-empt that, all immigrants of Indian or Nepali descent were expelled from 1990 to 1993 to prevent subversion and agitation by non-natives demanding political rights.
The world should realize that India was never a nation, they were British Rajas w/hundreds of languages & political parties w/deep conflicting interests and more than 20 official languages. Claiming to be the world biggest democracy (a phony), still has to show a "caste certificate" for a government position a brutal discrimination disguised as affirmative action – like the Nazis, its horrible treatment of the disabled & women the worst in the G20 with Delhi, Kolkata & Mumbai now competing for the rape city title.
Modi a Hindu nationalist & dedicated vegetarian (Hitler also) as governor is responsible for Gujarat riot & massacre of Muslims and was barred from entering the United States. His regime "overpaid" USD billions for fancy foreign weapons (more kickbacks for the elites?) while the majority suffers, and w/ Modi’s currency-cancel policy transferring wealth from the poor to the rich (more black money?). Since 1995 300K Indian farmers committed suicide, its brutal oppression toward the minorities w/ States rioting, Mumbai protesting, national bank employees striking & 27 active insurgents wanting independence chaos everywhere. During election mass illiterate peasants line up under scorching sun looking like undeveloped Africa casting ballots not understanding what they are doing, then returning to their miserable no-hope-existence… many diving in lakes of garbage just for survival.
Half the India population still defecate in the open w/ filth contamination everywhere ……do rat worship at Rajasthan……. people barely hanging onto outside of traveling trains …. 300 mil people without clean water and 300 mil illiterate adults….the planet biggest cesspool of most corruption – beyond description…..mass children died at Gorakhpur due to hospital officials not paying oxygen bill……decent freeway, airport & modern buildings infrastructure almost non-existence except pockets in Bangalore & Mumbai etc……endless festivals/holidays a manufacturing productivity nightmare & a pipe dream for Modi’s "Made in India".
Despite bragging of its IT success (tiny 25 mil people), India is still a country with its corrupt ruling elites having "ABSOLUTELY NO ACCOUNTABILITY" to its people, barely see corrupt Indian elites nor officials get punished. India elites always proud of "speaking Inglish", unless they face up to their dark hubris braggadocio colonial slave mentality (inferiority complex) and non-stop touting their fake GDP numbers, which is predicated on the misery and looting of its almost 1 billion hapless poor. Indian elites (domestic & foreign) should be really ashamed of themselves, they should reflect and ask themselves first why is their country is like this??
Spot on Riki . But then we are outsiders. Non Indians have no rights to interfere. Indians love it that way. It is in their nature. Hurray ! Keep it up Indians.
"This time, China is attempting to drive a wedge between Bhutan and its traditional ally India, China’s main and traditional geopolitical rival. Most recently, China is frustrated with India’s reluctance to join its One Belt One Road infrastructure development initiative. Unresolved border issues are another bilateral problem, as is the long-time presence of the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan government in exile in India."
The wedge alreaady existed and Bhutan has had the China choice for many years.
The Dalai Lama will not last more than a few more years and the government in exile would not gather the attention without him.
Even 8% growth out of $2 trillion is only 160 billion, wheras 6% out of 11 trillion is 660 billion. It will take India many decades to come close to China.
Does India have enough in common with the US and/or Japan socially for robust alliance?
"Most recently, China is frustrated with India’s reluctance to join its One Belt One Road infrastructure development initiative."
Why would China be frustrated?
Quite possible was that the invitation was the necessary and desired charade, while acceptance was the risk.
The Bhutanese are much smarter than the article suggests. They are not going to fall for the Chinese tricks. Also Bhutan knows what the Chinese intentions are– all they have to look at is what the Chinese have done with the countries that they have borders with– in fact even where they have no border– in the open seas– they are claiming territories that do not belong to them. There is ONLY one thing the Chinese care about– two things: Money/hagemoney and the cordyceps for the impotent Chinese. In fact Bhutan better watch out.. or their few tigers and rhinos that they have will all end up in the bedrooms of these impotent Chinese.
Yes the Bhutanese need to be careful as they are between the Indian devil and the Chinese deep blue sea. Either way they are finished. After the Chinese consume the cordyceps it is a difficult place to be in between a hard [ Chinese ] and rock [ dense Indian ]. Maybe ask the Nepalese.
The Chinese won’t be frustrated. Their strategic aim is to bypass the Straits of Malacca. With CPEC this is achieved. It is the Indians who are frustrated. CPEC would render their Trump card in the Straits of Malacca useless. Hence their angst at the CPEC.