A ship loaded with containers at a port in Ningbo, China. Photo: Reuters

After China’s trade surplus with the US rose 6.5% in the first half of the year, despite a contraction in the overall surplus, the world’s number two economy is set to see a strong start to the second half.

China’s exports are forecast to rise 10.9% year-on-year in July, according to a median estimate from analysts, reports Reuters, down slightly from June’s 11.3% growth.

The expected trade surplus of US$46.08 billion would be the second highest monthly surplus this year.

The surplus with the US accounted for 64% of China’s total surplus for the first half, compared with 43% a year ago, according to China customs data.

The great export numbers for China come as the White House considers launching a probe into Chinese trade violations using a domestic US trade law, as the New York Times reported this week.