Not the supposed protectionist Donald Trump, but the “free trade” wing of the Republican Party has taken the United States into a trade war that it can only lose. New sanctions against Russia passed by the House and Senate last week force Europe into a de facto alliance with Russia against the United States, and by extension with China as well. It is the dumbest and most self-destructive act of economic self-harm since the United States de-linked the dollar from gold on August 15, 1971, and it will have devastating consequences. The charade in the House and Senate may embarrass Trump, but it also poses a threat to European energy supplies as well as an extraterritorial intrusion into European governance. Berlin, Paris and Rome will conspire with Moscow to circumvent the sanctions while attacking the United States at the World Trade Organization and other international fora.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), and their counterparts in the House of Representatives allowed their indignance against a sometimes provocative president to overwhelm their sense of self-preservation. The sanctions will hurt Russia, but not nearly as much as they will hurt the United States over the long term. The White House envisioned sanctions as a bargaining chip, to be used to persuade Moscow to behave in the Ukraine and to limit the ambitions of its Iranian ally of convenience. In their present form, however, the president will have no authority to remove sanctions imposed by Congress. That turns a feint into a threat. Wars have been started over less.
The Democrats along with the McCain Republicans, it will be remembered, accused Trump of undermining the Atlantic Alliance, of isolating the United States, and of handing a diplomatic victory to Russia. Not Trump, but his detractors have given Moscow a degree of leverage over Western Europe to which it has not aspired since the height of the Cold War in 1983, when Soviet premier Yuri Andropov considered a pre-emptive Russian attack in response to Western plans to deploy medium-range missiles in Germany.
Supposedly it was Trump who ignored the exigencies of international relations in favor of domestic political theater. Yet it is the Establishment wing of the Republican Party and its Democratic allies who combined to embarrass the president, without a moment’s consideration of the consequences of their actions. Among Washington’s elite, Trump Derangement Syndrome has nothing to do with ideology. It is about jobs and patronage. This is not hypocrisy. It is chutzpah.
Trump humiliated the Democrats and the Establishment rump of the Republican Party last November. The losers now face the prospect of permanent exile from political life. Writing in the Times Literary Supplement July 25, historian Edward Luttwak predicted a Trump dynasty lasting sixteen years, in which Ivanka Trump Kushner would succeed her father. “No wonder that leading Democrats and non-Trumpers continue to act hysterically even eight months after the election. President Trump’s plan threatens to exclude them all from office until long past their retirement age,” Luttwak wrote. The hopes of high office of the defeated Establishment can be realized only by stifling the Trump administration in its cradle.
That is the motivation behind the Black Legend of Russian collusion that continues to occupy the waking hours of the American media while putting most Americans to sleep. As Sen. McCain said after the Senate vote July 27, the sanctions “respond to Russia’s attack on American democracy…. We will not tolerate attacks on our democracy. That’s what this bill is all about. We must take our own side in this fight, not as Republicans, not as Democrats, but as Americans.”
The notion that Russian machinations explain Trump’s electoral victory is fanciful, although Russia’s intelligence services no doubt sought targets of opportunity in the American electoral scramble. McCain’s outrage over the violation of America’s political virginity, though, rings rather hollow. Some of his friends, for example National Endowment for Democracy President Carl Gershman, publicly advocate regime change in Moscow, a topic that has been a matter of on-and-off public debate in Washington for years. A 2016 Defense Intelligence Agency document reported that Russia believes that the United States favors regime change. The US supported the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine, which threatened Russia’s access to its Crimean warm-water port. America’s capacity to influence political events in and around Russia is vastly greater than Russia’s.
After the fall of Communism, the dominant strain of American thinking held that the march of liberal democracy was unstoppable, and that it would transform the Muslim world as well as Moscow. I played a bit part in this project; in 1992, then Ambassador to Moscow Robert Strauss arranged for me to advise President Boris Yeltsin’s finance minister, Yegor Gaidar. Strauss did so at the behest of private equity investor Theodore Forstmann, who had funded a proposed study of the Russian economy. As it turned out I had little advice to give to the Yeltsin government, which was acting as a family office for various Russian oligarchs who divided up the Russian economy. The free-for-all of theft left the economy in ruins. One needed a large shopping bag full of currency to do ordinary shopping. A few hundred meters from the Kremlin, old people sold used clothing to buy food, and World War II veterans wore their medals to beg in the streets. No-one who had first-hand experience with Russia’s brief experience with democracy was surprised at Vladimir Putin’s subsequent popularity. The oligarchs continued to steal, but in a measured and organized fashion that allows ordinary life to proceed without catastrophic disruption. Putin rules Russia by means I sometimes find abhorrent, but his is a land where people don’t talk of Ivan the Reasonable.
An ideological residue of the utopian attitudes of the 1990s colors the Republican Establishment’s attitude towards Trump, but it does not really inform them. This is not about the US elections, or Putin’s nastiness, or freedom and democracy. It’s about privilege and the pecking order in the Washington swamp. McCain and Schumer want to destroy Trump because a successful Trump administration would destroy them, and destroy the reputation of an entire generation of diplomats, intelligence officers, academics and military officers who achieved rank by promoting the export of democracy, nation building, counterinsurgency, and so forth.
The trouble is that the Schumer-McCain combination has taken aim at Russia but inflicted collateral damage on the Europeans. The sanctions legislation in its present form allows the United States to impose heavy fines on European companies involved in energy infrastructure with Russia, and threatens several major projects now in progress, including the Nord Stream II natural gas pipeline, the Baltic Liquefied Natural Gas Project, and the Russia-Turkey Blue Stream pipeline, among others. EC Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker warned July 27, “The US bill could have unintended unilateral effects that impact the EU’s energy security interests. If our concerns are not taken into account sufficiently, we stand ready to act appropriately within a matter of days. ‘America First’ cannot mean that Europe’s interests come last.”
The Trump administration has annoyed America’s trading partners previously by complaining about the exchange rate of the euro and about Germany’s trade surplus with the US. But those were cosmetic issues compared to sanctions which the Europeans see as a threat to essential economic interests. The French and German foreign ministries denounced the sanctions as a “violation of international law” and national governments as well as the European Commission are preparing as yet unspecified countermeasures.
Europeans suspect that the US wants to sabotage Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe and replace them with LNG exports from the United States. Neither the Trump administration nor its opponents in Congress entertain such a Machiavellian agenda. On the contrary, the Trump administration initially supported sanctions against Russia as a bargaining chip, to be played to extract concessions from Moscow over the Ukraine, Iran and other matters of contention. The House and Senate bills in their present form effectively tie the president’s hands, turning what was a bargaining chip into a declaration of trade war. This would not be the first war to begin when what was intended as a feint was interpreted after the fact as a threat.
Not Trump, but his domestic opponents have set in motion an unprecedented disturbance in Atlantic relations, and effectively put Berlin, Paris and Rome in the same camp with Moscow in opposing American policy. European governments are already consulting with Moscow about mechanisms to get around the sanctions. Russia has responded by expelling a large number of diplomats from the embassy in Moscow, but that is merely a symbolic gesture. There are more disagreeable measures that Moscow might take, such as providing advanced weapons to Iran, giving close air support to Iranian-controlled militias in Syria, and increasing military cooperation with China. Russia and China, as I have reported, already back Iran’s international brigades of Shi’ites as a counter-toxin to Sunni jihadists shaken loose by America’s blunders in Iraq.
America won the Cold War by driving a wedge between Russia and China, and by persuading a frightened Western Europe to point medium-range missiles at the Russian heartland. Russia sought to compensate for its economic inefficiency by turning Europe into an economic colony, and the most dangerous operations of the Cold War were undertaken to prevent this. Now, for narrow political reasons, Trump’s enemies propose to undo the whole structure of relationships that won the Cold War and drive Europe into the arms of the Russians and Chinese. I do not believe for a moment that McCain and Schumer have a clue about this – they are like the “sleepwalkers” in Christopher Clark’s brilliant history of the outbreak of the First World War – but if I were a Russian operative, I would try to invent someone like John McCain, if McCain did not already exist.
Isn’t is odd, though, that after Trump’s visit to Europe and before the latest sanctions against Russia, Angela Merkle gave a speech in which she suggested that Europe might have to give up looking to America for leadership and simply plot its own course? I wonder what brought her to that rather radical pass? I doubt if it was McCain.
And in Poland, where one might expect to find more support for Trump than in Western Europe, especially considering their new "traditionalist" government, a recent Pew poll revealed that only 23% of Poles trust Trump to "do the right thing," compared to 58% who trusted Obama. What do you suppose could be at the heart of this vacuum of European support for our president?
The time has come for Europe to break its military, economic, and foreign policy alliance with the US. Europe has lost a fortune on participatimg in the US sanctions.
Our NATO membership cost us a fortune. Our participation in US/NATO has made us become human rights criminals. The US regime change in Ukraine failed, and Europe got stuck with the bills and refugees. Europe participation in the ridiculous Middle East/North Africa wars has been costly and Europe is not capable to provide for the increasing number of refugees. US/NATO false flag operations a.k.a “Gladio” has made us commit act of terrorism against our own citizens and destroyed democratic processes.
Americans as a whole are far from stupid, but Americans in office must be among the most stupid – and dangerous – people on Earth.
"indignance against a sometimes provocative president"??
More like outrage against an always moronic stupid and dangerous president!
Trump’s just a symbol for what "they" don’t like.
Ultimately, it’s about whites getting too uppity. Can’t have that.
Those that hold the real power are far from stupid.
Dangerous, yes. Solipsistically paranoid, yes. But far, far from stupid.
Once again, the Israeli Likud mouth piece publishes another article and interestingly this time he is kind of finger pointing at McCain and Trump. Keep in mind that up to know, he was very much in favor of Trump and US policies so far as it served his masters in Tel Aviv…this included bombing Syrian bases which he was cheerleading few articles ago and then Trump’s moves against Iran and Russia in Syria and US support for Despotic regimes in the Persian Gulf…..Why the U-Turn now?…so far everything was going great for the greater Israel plan which (Goldman, AKA Spengler..and other surnames..is certainly blogs and gets paid for)….Up to know Israel was busy supporting every terror group and expanding their colonies and shooting the innocent occupants of Palestine…..what the real fear in Israel is that with US Sanctions on Russia and Iran..most of these EU partners will now begin to see major effect on their economies and energy needs. This is all in time when they really need to improve their economy….a blind man can see that Macron of France needs Iran’s market to sell their third class Peugeot cars and sell their Air Buses and who can they let go of a recent $5 Billion to potentially $20 Billion dollar Total Oil investment….France’s economy will go down if they let go of these lucrative deals….As for Germany, they recognize the value of Nordstream gas pipeline along the fact that US could not provide cheap natural gas therefore they will loose not only the resource but lucrative business with Russia and to some extent Iran and by extension China…..Given the tension with US, this in turn will also impact Israel. Keep in mind that the BSD movement in Europe is lot more popular and European unlike Americans have better organizations to deal with ever expanding Israel. This will improve the situation for Palestinian as European will be more sympathizing to Russia and Iran and therefore this will shift their policies even more toward a more just peaceful solution. What Israel and Mr. Zionist writer of this article is afraid of is the divide between US and Europe as it relates to support for Israel. He could care less about European as long as they sheepishly take order from US and expand Europe and keep their mouth shut about Israel…but that won’t be the case going forward…Keep in mind also that the election campaign hacks where not all about Russian intervention as it was also about Israeli hackers….Just think who has so far go the most benefit from the Trump presidency…it has been the entity of Israel and Bibi Natanyahu….He got more financial Aid, more weapons and complete control of US intelligence and their own mole in terms of Trumps son in law Kushner…so make no mistake…..so far the winner has been Israel but they over played their hands and not table is turning and hence, you will see more writing from Mr. Goldman shedding crocodile tears.
Your article was timely and very insightful. Thank you.
I don’t know, could be "complex positionality" at work. Or good cop, bad cop.
Or maybe it’s just that his fellow neocons are getting a bit too lunatic and ham-handed for the even-tempered, erudite Spengler. A tactical disagreement.
I wonder what he thinks of this laughably blatant anti-free speech Israel boycott bill they’ve got going? I mean, if you’re going to dispel the idea that Congress is Israeli-occupied territory, that bill sure ain’t the way to do it.
I also like to add that up to now, Israel has a deal with Russia in which they could go into Syria and bomb Hezbollha and Iranian militia at will. This was a deal that Natanyahu made with Russia and in turn Russia would turn a blind eye as long as Israel would smooth up the relations between Russia and USA. Now as things getting out of hand for Russia/USA relationship, Israel will loose its leverage with Russia and you will notice that Russia will go back to its Iranian ally and will offer them freerer hand in Syria and don’t be suprise that in the next 15 months they may even sell them some of the military hardware (T90 Tanks, Sukhoi’s and other armaments in Iranian’s wish list). In Iraq, we see that Hashad ‘ Shabi (Shia Militia) has been fully integrated now in Iraqi army and has been securing the border with Syria. In Syria the Hezbollah been the defacto force in fighting ISIS…all of these are terrible news for Israel and the same rope (Trump administration) that they thought would have them free up and terrorize the Mideast is being slightly tighten around their necks. In the next 7 years, they will be forced to accept some sort of peace settlement as both Syria, Iraq and Hezbollan and other proxies will be too strong for Israel to deal with and US power will be declining even more in Mideast. As much as Israel and Saudi’s would like US to start a war with Iran, the European can not stomach another war and therefore they will not participate given that Iran has been adhereing to the JCPOA. Their other hope is the creationg of independent Kurdistan however this pipe dream is also rapidly will come to halt. With Erdogan waking up from his Ottoman empire dream and Syria/Iraq securing the borders, Israel spies and intelligence agencies are quickly loosing time and around in Kurdish area. These are the realities the Israel is facing and the future would look really bleak as more sanction is piled up on Russia. This will bring us back to the old cold war where Russian ended up supporting few Arab regimes due to its own interest and that is not a good picture for Israel and elites that occupy the Washington D.C.
The Israelis are already looking past the end of their brief Russian entente, the lessons of which were most certainly not lost on Syria/Iran/Hezbollah.
"This is not about the US elections, or Putin’s nastiness, or freedom and democracy. It’s about privilege and the pecking order in the Washington swamp. McCain and Schumer want to destroy Trump because a successful Trump administration would destroy them…"
So, Trump was right in the beginning when he declared that McCain isn’t a hero. He’s not a patriot. He’s just another self-serving pol, and, at 80 years of age and with brain cancer, he is terrified that Trump will destroy his political career.
Incredible. And you are usually so rational.
Good try Goldman, but it has been America first since the founding fathers.. Trump just calling it for what it is. He, and Bernie, are the consequences of popular discontent because of globalization, concocted by, and to serve, America established elite first.
"What do you suppose could be at the heart of this vacuum of European support for our president?".
Because he is American, as simple as that, and not just Europe, the whole world understood that
Mrs. Merkel probably thought the "internationalist" McCain was preferable to the "isolationist" Trump. If that’s what she thought, she was mistaken.
It’s an aphorism that we Americans always win the war and always lose the peace.
Trump wants a deal with Russia; McCain wants confrontation. Who is stupider and more dangerous?
I supported Trump’s deal with Russia over Syria. In fact, I’ve been advocating such a deal for years. And we’re putting something in the water that makes you paranoid.
Good article by mr Goldman.but I think by now the Empire is beyond saving itself from marching on its own destructive path
Michael Klopman
Low level cunning combined with callousness. You are right – dangerous and paranoid
The lady doth protest too much, methinks. Thanks for making me feel as though I were in the 7th grade again, it makes me young again. "outrage against an always moronic and stupid . . " I’ve little doubt you spent 3 of the happiest years of your life in the 7th grade..
US congress and senate seems to like to interfere with other countries affair
David Goldman Thank you, Mr Goldman, for an excellent article. And my admiration for responding to the rambling insults of Mr. Agapios, which barely deserved a response.
With all due respect, I think you missed the larger point Mr. Goldman was making. As your earlier comment suggests, you came to the table with preconceived notions. Please argue the larger, important points Mr. Goldman is making. What is fundamentally wrong in his analysis?
I hope you’re wrong about that.
Impossible, the US is the center and the heart of world capitalism, and capitalist western Europe can not afford to break away from the center, if it does it ends up into another Greece, with no way back.
Ignorance…
You are either ignorant of history or narrowmindedly biased. At the end of WWll the United States went on a two day a week diet to create a food surplus to help starving europe. We also instituted the Marshall Plan and lots of other low level programs to help Europe. Hardly the acts of America First. We became the defender of weakened Europe against an aggressive Russian piolicy of world domination. We ultimately ended up giving foreign aid to almost every country in existence. Not all of this was altruistic but we had a nurturing attitude towards countries needing help, and since our politicians are so imperfect we have not done such a great job everywhere and not been appreciated. Some of our good will has turned out to bite us, such as our help to China to become a quality manufacturing source. Sure we benefitted with lower cost goods. That made it a win-win for both countries. Now China wishes to bring down the United states by displacing the dollar with the Yuan as the world’s reserve currency and creating an altarnative system to the west dominated system. They will then be able to destroy the US economy and the United states in turn. Te only way to head this outcome off is to reinvigorate the manufacturing sector of the US economy so we are less vulnerable to cost rises in trade of goods we don’t manufacture and rebuild our financial strength by ending the enormous outflow of dollars from our country in trade deficits and foreign aid. He is trying to change minds in the US and warning recipients of American largesse by coining the phrase America First. A strong America is the best and safest situation the rest of the world should want.
American First and American Last are two sides of the coin of AngloAmerican neocon Zionist global hegemony begining with the planned decay of Germany and Russia and culminating with total sanctions and wars against the Axis of Evils or so called, Snakes against the Greater Israel and the global Wahhabism.
@Goldman,,,you keep repeating the same mantra…Iran no longer needs its own population to fight any war as you have seen from your Israeli journals and Mossad….Iran can easily mobilize Shites from Lebanon all the way to Tajikistan and Pakistan to fight any wars…Iran only provides advisors….so you have a moot point.
@Jan Krikke…you are entitled to your opinion. I have followed mid east news daily for the last 40 years and lived in Iraq, Syria, travelled to Israel, lebanon and Iran. many many times…believe me…I speak 4 languages fluently and know a thing or two about ME policies. I have seen plently of snake oil sellers in my life time. This is a guy than can write a 500 page book about ME troubles without mentioning the key word "Israel"…these are paid Bibi bloggers…they are pro in manipulating poor souls!!…
I dont think there is anyone who seriously believes that Trump has any "America first" vision. It is just a political slogan lacking any serious thought let alone strategy to achieve it.
"The Democrats along with the McCain Republicans", the Bill passed 98 to 2 what do you mean McCain Republicans, 96% of Republicans voted for the Bill, you are just manipulating the title of the articule for you own agenda.
Here we go again; insults coupled with lack of decorum. I doubt you understood half of what the writer intended to convey. You are intellectually ill-equipped to discern the big picture.
Should France bomb Poland, Ukraine and Estonia ?
James Agapios With such a cosmopolitan background you should be able to be a bit more elegant and respectful in the way you express yourself – and concise. A 500 word comment suggests penned-up frustration that is better channeled into an article, if you must. By taken the tone you do, you will not make it easier to convince those who may find points of agreement with your views.
What a great analysis. I commend Mr. Goldman for hitting this nail right on the head. I can add nothing more.
Thank you, Mr. Goldman, for the clear-sighted and concise article. But please take care, too, of the details: Yuri Andropow was party chaiman in 1983, but he was never premier of the USSR. Premier (prime minister) in 1983 was Nikolai Tikhonov.
As long as the world accepts the counterfeit US dollar as the currency of the world, the US has all nations over a barrel.
Being a former Naval Intel when the POWs came home, I think the NVA broke him.