North Korea’s latest test of a missile with a range capable of threatening American cities has left the Trump Administration somewhere between wishful thinking and a hard place. Too bad neither represents a realistic resolution of the conundrum.
The easy way out, for the US at least, is to “let China do it.” President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley have in unison chanted the same basic mantra: The problem would be solved if China would apply more pressure on North Korea.
Unfortunately, this naïve wishful thinking is based on several false premises.
First there is no evidence China can tell North Korea what to do with any real hope of success. The two countries are not buddies and there is no love lost between China’s President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. They have not met since both leaders came to power in 2012 and they communicate via messengers.
China has supported a UN resolution strongly condemning North Korea. The Kim regime no more pays heed to China than it has to protests from South Korea, Japan or the United States.
Just as China cannot stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapon and intercontinental missile technology, North Korea is not developing these technologies for China’s sake. North Korea believes it needs nuclear strike capability in order to be taken seriously by the US.
To date, sanctions on North Korea have not worked. The American response has been to ask the UN Security Council to impose more sanctions. In particular, Trump does not feel China is tightening the screws hard enough.
Shutting down North Korea’s economy might bring Kim to heel from the American perspective but clearly such as move is unacceptable from China’s view. Economic collapse would trigger a massive humanitarian crisis and China would be left to deal with the refugees as they take the only viable option and migrate north into China.
There is a flip side to this approach. Even if the sanctions bring North Korea to its knees, it does not mean the Kim regime will become more conciliatory. Kim may decide he has nothing to lose and simply launch an attack on the south.
The other tough approach is to launch a Rumsfeldian shock and awe military bombardment on North Korea before the North can attack.
There is virtually no chance, however, that carpet-bombing could vaporize the array of artillery and missiles facing South Korea. The consequent damage to Seoul and other parts of South Korea from the retaliation would be significant, not to mention the danger to the 30,000 American troops stationed in the south.
There is also no assurance any precision strikes could successfully take out Kim and his inner circle nor knock out all the country’s nuclear weapons and development centers. The risks of failure are simply too great to contemplate.
There is a more sensible approach that an increasing number of commentators and foreign policy observers are suggesting the Trump Administration consider: offer talks without preconditions.
North Korea fears the US and knows Beijing cannot commit on behalf of Washington. Pyongyang wants to deal directly with Washington and does not see China as a credible intermediary. Why not begin a direct conversation?
The Clinton Administration almost reached an agreement with Pyongyang when the clock ran out on Clinton’s term. George W. Bush elected to ignore North Korea and then imposed preconditions before being willing to resume negotiations.
Pyongyang saw the Bush White House as dealing in bad faith and that the only way to gain American respect was to complete the development of a nuclear bomb. North Korea detonated its first nuclear bomb in October 2006, during Bush’s second term.
The Obama administration, unfortunately, followed the Bush line: no negotiations without preconditions. To push for North Korea’s agreement, Washington bandied the threats of sanctions and solicited Beijing for help.
In the 16 years since the end of the Clinton administration, Washington and Pyongyang have made no progress in reaching a common understanding. Each has accused the other of acting in bad faith. The US threatened more sanctions; North Korea kept testing weapons with bigger bang and missiles with longer range.
This endless cycle is not going anywhere and the threat of an American shock-and-awe style attack clearly worries Pyongyang. Why can’t Washington soften a bit and show a willingness to talk without pre-conditions? What does it have to lose?
Will the world respect us less as a fearsome hegemon because we are willing to swallow our pride, or will it applaud us for taking the first step towards peace? Donald Trump has an opportunity to accomplish an important foreign policy triumph that has eluded his two predecessors.
In contrast,China moved all of her million or more soldiers out of North Korea after the Korean War.
As you wrote, things were improving under Clinton’s policy of engagement. North and South were talking, the North was allowing reunions of family members who hadn’t seen each other for decades, and the US and South Korea were helping alleviate the suffering of millions in the North Korean famine. These days, things are less good.
I had high hopes that the Kaesong Industrial Complex would lead to normalization of relations. After all, North Korea needs money and South Korea has an ongoing labor shortage, so factories built near the DMZ seemed like a perfect way forward. After all, nothing prevents war like mutual economic benefit. However, both Koreas had trouble playing nice.
Ultimately, I don’t know what the solution is, or even if a solution is possible. I agree, however, that sabre rattling at a nuclear armed unstable military regime with very little to lose is a bad idea.
Thanks for a great post.
Unfortunately, what critics and commentators alike don’t really, profoundly get is that the United States of America is the worldwide "bad boy" of the moment. History will judge that it was the Americans who caused universal strife and misery in the early 21st century. It is a terrible thing to have to contemplate but it is the truth. America, like Nazi Germany before it, is the blight upon the world, the horror show and the demon that the world has to fear and deal with. Very grim and very sad. But true.
Cradits goes to Amaricans. The reason for North Korea is Expending their nuclear capacity is US.US imposing their will on every country and not every country is ready to accept US petronaization.
George Koo.
Your article reflects the ground reality.The facts lay bare for analysis.
How many missiles were dropped in Syria and the mother of all bombs in Afghanistan. Did Afgan. fall? What about the Syrians? The regime is still intact and standing tall isn’t it? These countries have no counter measures.
With brute force, US thinking is it’s ability to destroy an entire nation. So naive when still in clinical test for formula to the killer blow.
A cornered serpent will release all of it’s deadly venom prior to it’s exit, which applies in the US/N.Korea situation.
Dummy US thinks peer pressure is enough to rein in N.Korea.
Ask the Republican president to rein in his own Republican senators and those Democratic senators.
In serving their nation, fellow citizens with different agenda and ideology are already tough nuts to crack, what do you expect when nations are involved.
US mentality is liken to too many Hollywood blockbusters Rambo style glorification when the actual casulty is limbs, arms, sight and broken lives, with the dead, rest in peace tombstone. Naive for US to imagine themselves superior to crush N.Koreans like ants.
Threats won’t work.
Fatty Kim has grown up. Already has the retaliatory means. Sanctions will prove ineffective. While most nations will go along with UN sanctioned resolution, NK has it’s own circle of support who won’t publicise themselves.
Instead of just focusing on NK, attention directed at SK is appropiate.
SK publically, wants to move peace process, but not realistic about THAAD issue.
US export THAAD to the Korean peninsula which is seen in monetary terms.
China and Russia should twist S.Korea’s arms on the THAAD issue and assure their security of threats from the North.
Should the US withdraw all it’s protector troops from S.Korea which more or less ease tension between the Korean kins.
S.Korea can sell the THAAD arsenal if they are paying.
The US already showed it’s cards by approving the Taiwan arms sale.
It’s all about money.
Conciliatory talk with the fat boy of North Korea won’t work
Sadly, I think the US establishment are quite happy to continue to ramp things up, it’s good for the weapons sales business. They are doing the same with Russia, ratchetting up things by placing numerous bases along their border and supposedly anti-missile systems that just happen to be capable of firing small nukes. Again great for weapons sales. Obama left office as the president who sold the most weapons since WW2. Syria and the wider middle east in chaos suits the US no end too, the weapons sales are obviously huge but there is the added bonus that the EU economy is being impacted by the refugee crisis. I firmly believe the US are quite happy to let these situations continue, simply because it’s just good business.
Frankencracy is the answer for the US!
The solution is simple- nuclear arms aren’t safe in anyone’s hand. So, one law must apply to the whole- No one is allowed to own or develop nuclear-related products.
Yes America got too hold back…if we want world wide peace…unity is power..
I’m totally agree with u….America got too leave north korea at peace….move up all there amy force for they…if they not want the thrid world war stay stranger…..they is a saying in my home town ”dog that brak dont bite” it easy to understand…but if u attack him then it would be lot of trouble…..