The tallest Kashmiri politician today, Farooq Abdullah, former chief minister of the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir and an erstwhile cabinet minister in the central government in New Delhi, would have been a consummate surfer in the world of sports.
The audacity with which he rode the wave of Kashmiri nationalism through turbulent decades (while also remaining “Delhi’s man in Srinagar”) has been breathtaking.
Abdullah, who is currently a parliamentarian, may have deliberately opted to surf unforgiving political waves when he said in Delhi on Friday that India needs to accept help from the United States or China to settle the Kashmir issue.
Abdullah asked indignantly: “How long will you wait for talks [between India and Pakistan]? Will you wait for a thousand years?
“You have to take the bull by the horns. Sometimes you have to do it. You have [the] atom bomb and they too have [the] atom bomb. How many people will get killed?
“The only way is dialogue. Take a friend’s help. We say we have friends across the world. So take their help for talks and tell them we want to solve it [Kashmir].
“Four wars have been fought. How [many] more losses do you want? The money we spend on planes and war machinery, if [we] used it for poor farmers, then the country [would] develop rapidly…. You need to find a solution. You won’t find anything by being rigid.”
As a seasoned surfer, Abdullah knows the size of the swell that he has to work with. He understands that Kashmiris feel utterly exhausted from being on the barricades for decades but nonetheless remain defiant in their belief that they have nothing more to lose.
Coercion never works against people who are desperate, having experienced the frontiers of pain and loss, but the state apparatuses somehow refuse to learn from history. Hence the stalemate in J&K.
But then, the stalemate is unreal too, since the ground is definitely shifting. As a veteran politician, Abdullah can sense the stirring.
Kashmir is transforming as a regional security issue as never before seen in the 67 years since British rule ended.
It is increasingly becoming untenable to say that Kashmir is India’s internal problem – or that it is a mere India-Pakistan dispute.
That the unresolved Kashmir issue poses an impediment to settlement of the Afghan issue has been evident for some time, but there is an added urgency felt lately.
The administration of US President Donald Trump admits that a “regional approach” is needed to resolve the Afghan conflict. Indians hope this means the US will step up pressure on Pakistan to terminate its support for the Taliban and the Haqqani network.
But they overlook the fact that to secure Pakistan’s cooperation, it also becomes necessary to explore the depths of its concerns and legitimate interests as well. And Pakistan says Kashmir is the root cause of regional tensions.
No doubt the upheaval and violence in J&K are attracting world attention. However, what may transform the Kashmir problem significantly will be China’s decision to wade into it.
Thus a terrible beauty has been born in the recent period. The China-India relationship has gotten into a confrontational mode, and there is open talk of an outbreak of hostilities.
But Indian strategists fail to see that a new confrontation with China may not necessarily be a replay of the 1962 war. It could be far worse.
In an editorial on Friday, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times wrote on the month-long military standoff between China and India in the China-Bhutan border region: “If New Delhi remains stubborn, India should get prepared for all possibilities from a potentially grave escalation of tension….
“The PLA’s mobility and logistics capability cannot be matched by that of its Indian counterpart…. [People’s Liberation Army] troops may appear in any area beyond the Line of Actual Control that was previously controlled by India…. China does hold a lot of cards and can hit India’s Achilles’ heel.”
The “Achilles heel” unmistakably refers to J&K. An earlier Chinese commentary called the Ladakh region of Kashmir, currently controlled by India, disputed territory claimed by China, Pakistan and India. Such statements are unprecedented.
Suffice to say, if the possibility cannot be ruled out that a settlement in Afghanistan might highlight the imperative need for mediation to resolve the Kashmir issue as well, that possibility becomes a near certainty if China gets entangled in it.
Not surprisingly, India has always resisted third-party intervention in Kashmir, while Islamabad has consistently sought outside mediation. But India’s stance looks obdurate when New Delhi also remains unwilling to engage with Pakistan in dialogue – and, most crucially, has alienated China.
India’s intervention in the Bhutan-China territorial dispute creates a new precedent in regional security. Some Chinese commentators have already speculated about a third country intervening in India-Pakistan disputes.
Meanwhile, there are other disturbing signals. Some time back, the US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, disclosed that Trump hopes to mediate in India-Pakistan tensions and that the topic figured in National Security Council discussions in the White House.
These are early days, but Abdullah’s remark underscores the paradigm shift taking place in the geopolitics of the Kashmir problem.
The “muscular diplomacy” toward China and Pakistan pursued by the present government in India, mentored by Hindu nationalist groups, has opened a Pandora’s box.
Ken Kwan We are entitled to our own opionion!
Ken Kwan I take it Pakistan wasn’t? What do you make of a country whose icon is the biggest mass murderer in modern times? Hence the Chinese tradition of democracy through tanks.
Vamshee Devulapally this is beyond Mr Khan’s pigeon sized brain.
Bhadrakumar, your commentary is always so to the point, and so incisive.
Vamshee Devulapally, India is picking up fights with all its neighbours in the hope that the rest of the world sees it as a victim rather than an aggressor…which it is. No one is questioning its status as a Nation State. But in its rush to legitimise itself as a great power it is losing its internal battle against poverty, misery, communalism…just having loose change in your pocket does not make you powerful…
Saeed Khan pls don’t weasel out mate. I read your views and I see them. Unless your views are a smoke screen for something else. And don’t compare RSS to madrasa.its chalk and cheese. Everyone knows what happens the moment Muslims are a majority. For ex: Mallapurm, 24 parganas, IS themselves…should I go on? RSS dominates Nagpur. Tell me what has happened in Nagpur? If you are trying to eyewash our discussions by painting RSS to Islamic intolerance then that won’t fly anynore.
Let’s agree to disagree. Use your intellectual capital to fight the right battles. The entire Islamic world is doomed. The chasm of technology and HDI is so wide between Islam and the rest that you can never catch up. Not with madrasa teaching hate and arbic.
I suggest you get your head of the sand and go fix that.
Vamshee Devulapally. This is not a debate on who understands geopolitics better, nor is this an attempt to compare the teachings of a madrassa to the hate indoctrination of RSS Sevaks lead by its fascist leader called Modi. You have completely missed the point I made in my earlier post. But then, I never expected you understand it anyway.
Do you forget that it was ill intentions of the pakistani confederate who attacked immediately after the partition making their intentions bare. It was then that the king sought help and acceeded to Indian dominion. I guess you are from Pakistan. If that is true, what you learnt as history is a joke for example Pakistan’s history starts from 325 BC (accordingg Karachi University sourced history)
Syed Ziauddin you havenot factored a point that he worked under Congress dispensation and was nowhere to be seen talking about the issue earlier. I am quite sure these kind of articles are a propoganda campaign which is also part of covert war games.
INDIA is the only country in asia left that continues to live in the shadow of the white man..HINDU EXTREMIST ARE PLEASING thier former colonial white masters..MODI has hugged and KISSED every white leader..yet,the loss on india is compelling..the children die of hunger yet we dont have any business agenda on cooperation with other asian countries…the only alliance modi dances with is japan and south korea both countries in the western box and both countries with a horrific history of crimes against their fellow asians..time is not indias side..it has to abandon its dream of thinking it can live in the western box
The truth of the poverty rate in Inida is really astonishing, and especially in public health care. Over 500 million Indian rural population defecate in the open, because there are no toilets, which accounts for 65% of all public defecation in the world according to a Ted Talk presented by an Indian female lecturer. And believe me, about 20 years ago, China was exactly like this, if not worse. What the Indian government needs to do it to get the reform necessary and boost up the economy and then it can talk about building its great dream of power in south Asia. Of course, India could also choose the way of confrontation with its neighbours, and spent even more money on weaponeary import, let’s face it, currently the second largest spender only after Saudi Arabia. There is a book intensive about Sino-Indian border disputes named India’s China War written by a british diplomat 30 years ago, which is quite genuine and neutral if one looks into the content, not favoring either side, as it is often the case with western main stream media (as India was often regarded as the glorious democratic nation cultivated by the West due to its colonial past). It reveals the extreme false education for decades, which nurtures the wrong idea that India is sohow the victim and should arbitarily draw the borders with its neighbours with China and Pakistan alike. I notice that in China there is also the problem of nationalism, which is often surprisely suppressed by the ruling party. Just be aware that a seemingly democratic nation is also able to elect Hitler like religious extreme nationalist. It is quite clear that through the bear hug initiated from Mr. Modi to Trump, that he is seeking sort of help and support from the Americans, and then days after, the border standoff occurred. All those are no mere coincidence. It is true that both armies are not like what they were in 1962. Although it could only benefit the Americans to stir up the region further and even sell more weapons, I have to admit, I am quite curious as to know how the PLA has evolved. So a conflict with India might not be a bad idea to test the waters, and see how they can improve.
Anand kapoor I agree with you.
M K Bhadrakumar’s opinions are usually biased and defeatist. This former diplomat seems like he has sold out to peddle views that sound music to India’s detractors. Always.
Syed Ziauddin I disagree. The authors views are coloured by his ideology and that’s not uncommon. If you are really concerned about my views pls read the authors comments from as far back as the last 10 years. There are archives on this site. The author makes one feel as if Indians cannot get anything right.
And so what if he is from the IFS? So what? That doesn’t redeem him of his ideological moorings.
The author in fact very recently echoed false news about Chinese troop movement which turned out to be propaganda as per US think tanks.
Who would I believe.? My views harden because the author has never proposed an alternative and in his world view Indians are imbeciles. I am glad is not longer in the IFS.
What you are trying to tell the world that Mr. Bhadrakumar who served Indian Foreign Service and a seasoned diplomat and represented India in many special assignments secret and non secret and kept Indian interests during his long service is a Chinese agent and in Chinese payroll, its a very serious allegation and raise lots of questions on Indian foreign service that how come an Indian ambassador representing India is on Chinese payroll, is he the only one or the entire Indian foreign service is on Chinese payroll, could it be possible that Indian prime minister us also on Chinese payroll, the entire scenario is very troubling, I always thought that Namo is on ISI payroll since Nawaz Shareef is sending his mother Saris and some gifts from ISI but I never thought that highly respected Mr. Bhadrakumar is on Chinese payroll, Damn, you can’t trust anyone these days.
Virendra Kumre Kashmir belong to Kishmiri. You people are squatters.
The land does not belong to India and it only belongs to Kashmiris and they are the only party that will decide the fate of Kashmir according to India’s father of the nation Pundit Nehru who initiated and agreed on the plebiscite of Kashmiris under the UN mandate. Anything else would be construed occupation by India and will invite third party to intervene. Why would India have 900,000 army, three size more than the entire Pakistani army posted only in the state of Jammu and Kashmir unless it’s an occupation and even the case gets and Pundit Nehru and the Indian parliament accepted its sovereignty as an independent stronger when even according to Indian constitution passed by Indian Parliament, no Indian citizen can buy any piece of land in the state of Kashmir according to article 370 of the Indian constitution , its because Kashmir is a sovereign state and Indian parliament accepted its sovereignty as an independent state out side the Indian federation. So India has no case whatsoever except its occupying a sovereign country by the force, it has no moral ground neither any ethical reason to occupy the Muslim land of Kashmir.
Even before reaching their destiny, the Hindutvas are becoming exceptional.
Saeed Khan you should expect me to know geo politics. We are well read and we are not taught in a madrasa. Telling Hindus about Hindu nationalism is a bit too rich especially coming from those who cannot see beyond their blinkered vision of an Islamic world view.
As I mentioned in my comments earlier India is a nation state. Do you understand that? You profess geo political maturity. You must.
Water under the carpet does not effect nations state as much as you make a big deal out of it.
If you think weapons are not important you must be from the la is land. Indians (including pakistanis) have a rich tradition of martial traditions. They have been in the form of mercenaries or smaller state soldiers into past as recent as the world war 2. Pakistan still live it obviously going over board and the Indians know it keeping a lid on it. For a geo political guru you must know that. Or did they teach you Islamic glory by blowing yourself up?
You HAVE something smart to say I am all ears. Else please go and update the syllabus of your seminary.
Huh! A Muslim teaching me about modernity and geo politics. That’s too rich mate. Too rich.
HISTORY IS VERY BAD.YOU PEOPLE NEED TO GO BACK TO SCHOOL.