India is watching with concern as Pakistan’s army tightens its screws on power following the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a soft coup orchestrated by the country’s generals using the judiciary.
The Joint Investigation Team that tabled a 254-page report earlier this month on the financial assets of Sharif’s family, included two members from military intelligence agencies. Pakistan’s military may not have played a direct role in disqualifying Sharif from public life over corruption charges, but the Supreme Court could not have passed its ruling on Friday without the military’s tacit approval.
Sharif wanted peace with India and he wished to strengthen democracy in Pakistan. The Pakistani military oppose peace and have sent terrorists to attack India’s army bases in Pathankot and Uri. They have thwarted democracy by not allowing Sharif to complete his term as prime minister on three different occasions now.
Sharif was not on good terms with his army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and chief of Inter-State Intelligence, Lt Gen Naveed Mukhtar, who wanted to remove him at all costs.
The military began to lose trust in Sharif after he attended Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in 2014. This was one of his rare visits to India. Modi later made a dramatic visit to Sharif’s home in Lahore to attend his granddaughter’s wedding in December 2015. This unscheduled meeting came as the final straw for Pakistan’s army. A week later, terrorists struck at the Indian Air Force station in Pathankot, Punjab.
Sharif’s exit comes at a time when India faces increased ceasefire violations by Pakistani troops and the Indian army is engaged in a standoff with China at the Doklam tri-junction.
Even if Sharif names his wife Kalsoom, or brother Shehbaz, as interim prime minister, the military may be virtually ruling the country until fresh elections, scheduled for the middle of next year. Even these may be postponed, however. India is worried about who it should talk to in Pakistan if the situation deteriorates on Kashmir’s line of control. Prospective India-Pakistan talks on the matter will be put into deep freeze if Pakistan’s military is running the administration.
Reactions to Sharif’s ouster are another matter of concern for India. Pakistani terror group Jamat-ud Dawah (JuD) welcomed the Supreme Court ruling. It had been blaming him for not doing enough to liberate Kashmir and for betraying the path of jihad. India will not be surprised if JuD chief, Hafiz Saeed – who is linked to 2008’s Mumbai terror attacks, 2006 Mumbai train bombings and 2001 Indian Parliament attack – is released from house arrest soon.
Former Pakistani president Gen Parvez Musharraf, now living in exile in London and facing treason charees back home, also hailed a “historic’ verdict. In 1999, when he was Defense Minister, Musharraf, without informing the then Prime Minister – Sharif – sent troops and militants to the mountains of Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir to wage war on India. Pakistan lost the Kargil war.
If elected as prime minister, the shrewd Khan may well decide to bat for the military so that they allow him to serve his full term
Imran Khan, the former Pakistani cricketer who leads the Tehreek-i-Insaf party, vigorously campaigned for Sharif’s downfall and also hailed the end of the “godfather’s” rule. His party is likely to win the general elections. If elected as prime minister, the shrewd Khan may well decide to bat for the military so that they allow him to serve his full term.
The reading in New Delhi is that Sharif’s exit will embolden Pakistan’s military to launch more attacks on India and push more terrorists into Kashmir. Over 200 ceasefire violations by Pakistani troops have been recorded over the past few months.
India has not officially reacted to Friday’s development in Pakistan. It appears to be on wait-and-watch mode.
What more problems can Pakistan create otehr than throw a nuke at New Delhi?
To frame China as a serious concern for India is genuine. To worry about who runs Pakistan is laughable. Parvez Musharaff was considered in India as a reliable friend and ally in the peace process. There was a lot of apprehension and concern when he was removed and Nawaz Sheriff was elected the PM. Indians not only lived through that transition, but eventually developed a sort of working relationship with Nawaz. India will live through the current crisis in Pakistan. The one thing to note is India does not put a lot of money on the rulers in Pakistan and the hope to establish peace with that country. The Pakistani ruling class and their army have driven themselves into a hopeless corner where they can never negotiate peace with India. And they can never win a war either. Indian establishment has pretty much learned to live with this reality. For India whether it is Nawaz Sheriff, Parvez Musharaff, Bilawal Bhutto or a future Zia ul Haq, they are all nothing but a minor irritant in the works, who will raise the spectre of Kashmir to buy insurance against their own predetermined failure. India will live and prosper irrespective of who runs Pakistan next.
Mr. Jaya Kumar is woefully misinformed and ignorant on the facts of Kargil. It was not an Indian victory on a battle field that resulted in restoration of Indian occupation of Kargil. It was the result of tail twisting by Bill Clinton of Sharif that Sharif ordered the troops back. Shortly after that white House meeting when Sharif returned to Pakistan he fired Musharraf who then with the help of ISI staged a coup deposing and arresting Sharif and put him under House arrest. Its amazing house Indian journalists are adept at spreading the false propaganda. If India is in such a deep love for Sharif how come it took three years for Modi to pay a surprise visit to Lahore? Just what did Modi did to strengthen the Sharif’s hands so he could politically stood up to army? Don’t give us lectures. Even today what is going on in India against Muslims and other minorities and the election of a religious Guru to the position of Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh, the list can go on and on. Modi’s own record of Chief Minister of Gujrat in the open slaughter of Muslims under his nose. Come on he is murderer in plain clothes. The fact is that BJP only understands the language of strength. Congress is the only genuinely secular party in India. BJP has utterly failed in its foreign policy and not only is facing Pakistan army today but is facing PLA in Bhutan/ China border. Something is going to happen very soon. Stay tuned.
AN Hindu satani propect.
Indian army should be ready for any eventuality but never , never , let Kashmir go . In your dreams Pakis.
Pakistan is in full control of its destiny….this was wonderful that Sharif and his clan of thieves who were Indian sympathisers have been removed and will be eventually jailed for robbing Pakistani people…..The Hindu Indian slum dwellers are obsessed with Pakistan Army because they have been defeated and humiliated by a much smaller but potent Pakistan Army on several occasions.
it is only a question of time when Kashmir will be taken away and freed from the dreadful hindu people who are mired in Hindutva fundamentalism….we in Pakistan are not interested in slum country India except freeing Kashmir and that we will do….Now hindu slummies can eat their hearts out but between China and Pakistan; India is just a limp, lame garbage of a country.
Hindus need to improve their billion starving hindu population, build some toilets….600 million hindu indians defecate on streets, they need to stop their national sport of raping women….in short Gutter india needs a lot of things done instead of obsessing with Pakistan.
Sharif’s removal comes when India is taking a tougher stand against Hurriyet leaders in Kashmir over terror funding. Once the cash flow from Pak military and terror groups is blocked, they may get frustrated and launch more attacks on Kashmir border. There are months to go for Pak elections and anything can happen there including postponement of polls and imposition of martial law.
Sharif was disliked by Pak army for his leaning towards India. Though he took a hard stand on Kashmir, he wanted trade to flourish between the two countries. He may be corrupt but who is not corrupt among Pakistani leaders? Gen Musharraf has assets abroad and he now lives in London. Late prime minister Benazir Bhutto had assets in Dubai. Many Pak generals had assets more than their declared source of income. But the Pak army decides who should be punished and who should be allowed to go scot-free.
India will have a problem if Imran Khan accepts Musharraf as an ally to defeat Sharif’s party in elections. This is just a possibility. Though Musharraf faces treason charges, army can see to it that these charges are dropped and he is able to come back to fight the elections. Imran-Musharraf-army combination will be dangerous.
Army dictates Pakistan’s policies. It has been violating ceasefire on Kashmir border almost every day and using proxies to spread violence in Kashmir. Children, women and soldiers in Kashmir are getting killed daily in shelling from across the border. Nawaz Sharif’s departure will not make any difference. But India has to be more vigilant
With Sharif out, Pakistan’s army and terror groups will attack India more. Whoever is elected from Sharif’s family will remain a rubber stamp. Elections should be held in Pakistan next year as scheduled. Otherwise, military will take over. India needs a politically stable neighbour.
And China will watch pliantly?
With the Pakis in disarray, the Indian hegemon could move in under the pretext to stabilise the chaos and thus, make its nuclearised neighbour its own backyard.