Winning the war and making the peace are two different things. One of the best-known examples in modern history is the Austro-Prussian War in 1866.
The “Iron Chancellor” Otto von Bismarck put his foot down on his generals’ plans to push forward after conquering Bohemia in the Battle of Königgrätz and march on to Vienna.
Russia faces this lesson from history as the Syrian conflict is drawing to a close. When a war is cruising to an end prematurely, before peace talks gain traction, a void can appear. Foresight is needed to avoid it.
Paradoxically, Russia is winning the Syrian war but may also be losing control of the peace process. As the English poet W B Yeats wrote, “Turning and turning in a widening gyre / The falcon cannot hear the falconer.”
It is a delicate moment. Russia entered the Syrian war in September 2015 with six main objectives:
- Salvage the Syrian regime;
- Prevent an Islamist takeover in Syria;
- Establish a long-term Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean;
- Force Washington to engage with Moscow;
- Expand an engagement with the US over Syria to other theaters (Ukraine, in particular); and,
- Leverage the overall engagement incrementally toward a Russian-American détente.
The score card shows 50:50. The first three objectives have been largely fulfilled; the fourth – episodically, perhaps; but the last two remain a chimera.
It is an unsatisfactory outcome. Meanwhile, the ground beneath the Russian feet shifted abruptly when US President Donald Trump summarily abandoned “Timber Sycamore” (codename for the disastrous Central Intelligence Agency operation authorized by president Barack Obama in 2013, to train and equip “moderate” Syrian rebels to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad).
Trump’s decision signifies that the US will not be bogged down in the “Assad must go” mindset. It is an American decision that Russia had long sought. But the catch is that Russia also expected that in the downstream, the US would be working with its military to defeat ISIS as well as shape a political solution.
Now, the downstream turns out to be a dark, dangerous alley. Russia is such a toxic subject today in Washington that no meaningful US-Russia cooperation in Syria – leave alone Ukraine – seems conceivable in the short term.
Where does that leave Russia? Of course, Russia has significant military resources in Syria, but it still cannot advance a political solution without US participation.
On the other hand, recent events in the region compel Washington to rethink its own regional strategy – the rift in the Persian Gulf region, Turkey’s support for Qatar, Iran-Qatar rapprochement, US-Turkey tensions, US support for “moderate” Kurdish rebels and so on.
What complicates matters further is that Russia’s allies in Syria – the Assad government, Iran and Hezbollah – are pressing ahead on the war front. Hezbollah’s dramatic victory in gaining control of the heights on the Syrian-Lebanese border and Syrian government forces’ relentless advance toward Deir ez-Zor and its control over long stretches of the Syrian-Iraqi border – they testify that the (residual) war has a dynamic of its own.
Russia does not like a scenario where it is unable to call the shots. Its frustration takes the form of a vicious attack on Iran in a commentary on Wednesday by Sputnik, Moscow’s media organ, titled “Is there the risk of Russia, Iran being at odds over Syria’s future?”
To quote from the commentary: “Tehran wants to establish a government in Damascus that would provide Iran with voting power in Syrian politics, including in expanding Tehran’s influence in the region along the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shiite arc. Iran wants to maintain a logistics corridor which would guarantee military and financial support for pro-Iran forces, first of all Hezbollah, in the region….
“Hezbollah’s role in Syria is decreasing, [but] the military group continues to remain the main tool to expand Iran-led Shiite influence in the region…. Russia is not happy with Iran’s attempt to impose its will on Damascus and establish a political and ideological basis for further expansion of Shiite influence in the region. Such a policy is destabilizing…. Such a scenario would not serve Russia’s interests in the region.”
Can it be that the commentary is dissimulating? Russia may see advantages in projecting its discord/rivalry with Iran. Russia could even be playing the “Israeli card” to curry favor with US elites. Or, Moscow might be piling pressure on Iran to extract some concessions elsewhere, such as lucrative business deals.
All the same, Sputnik underscored a plausible scenario – an uncompromising Iran that is hell-bent on steering a Syrian settlement in directions that safeguard its vital interests and core concerns.
Iran is a tough negotiator. And Syria is a frontline state. This is an existential war for Tehran. The “axis of resistance” is at the core of its objectives in throwing the dice.
There is a contradiction here. Iran would see no reason to act like a surrogate power at Russia’s bidding. After all, Iran too has the diplomatic ingenuity to leverage its influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon to engage with the US directly on equal terms.
Keep in mind that Iran was helping the Syrian and carried the toughest task while Russians stood on the sidelines until late 2015. Iran has every right to insure it’s allies are taken care of. Without Iran’s help, Syria would have been disintegrated and would have been another Libya.
Yes u r right
Russia may have been on the right side here, but their own interests come first. As they would to any rational player.
Beyond the establishment of permanent military bases in the Med, its goals are at odds with those of Iran/Syria/Hezbollah. Putin, in spite of implacable neo-con anti-Russia death lust, wants to preserve the current manageable Russia-Israel relationship.
And Iran will never forget how Russia jerked them around for years over their civilian nuke reactor program, delaying completion while doing the vain "reset" waltz with the US. The two nations, IIRC, also have historical disputes extending back centuries.
Pussy grabbing neoFascists in the West may have hoped that a deal with Putin would throw Assad and his Ayatollah allies under the bus in exchange for recognising his Crimean grab.
Sir,Russian and Iranian national interest is linked with Iran Iraq and Syrian defnsive belt to counter American and Natahaeu diictates to conqure their energy and oil resources!Russia will also benefit from her access to maditerian warm water and her Silk Route Initiatives with China.With Chinese quick access to Persian Gulf through CPEC transitwhole region in central Asia is likely to bebefit tremandously.m karim.
The last three objectives were unrealizable since Washington is the center or Russophobia. There is no way to engage in any meanigful talk with Washington at least with the Congress, except through raw power. However, the power applied by Russia in Syria was not sufficient to tilt the US perception of US power supremacy.to the least. A more meaningful theat is the Turkey-Rissia gambit where Erdogan is playing hardball with the Americans as Russia wants to upset the NATO power configuration in the area and more so in the Black Sea. At the end of the day it is more probable for Washington to yield to Erdogan’s blackmail and keep Turkey as a regional power under Islrael’s umbrella, than to let Turkey converge with Putin.
It is rare situation that this author misses the forest for the trees, but this is one situation. The last time I saw that was in his assessment of the Crimean crisis after Kiev coup.
This is a game of shadows, and it is critical not to get confused by trees and miss the forest.
Every bit of data points to the gradual unveiling of intricate relationships among partners. On one side is the obvious one, Russia. But the role of Iran and Turkey has been emerging cautiously and with intricacy of lace patterns. But behind the sophistry, let us be clear. Goals of Russia, China, Iran and Turkey are now alligned. The rest of it is tactics. And while the key players have strategy alligned, on the other side is US, with only tactical moves — and an absence of strategy in the Middle East, or actually anywhere else. And as Sun Tzu said, tactics without strategy is just a noise before defeat.
Sputnik is known for placing articles that reflect the point of view so near and dear to the well known globalist dreams. It serves two purposes. One, inside Russia, there are gloabalist chearleaders — politically insignificant, but noisy. They tend to complain about their views not being heard by the Russian media. Sputnik and RT give space to their worldview. They may be trully insignificant. but are well connected to Americsan neocon universe, and they cannot be denied their "rights". The problem with such entitled minority views is that they exert undue pressure on media — but this is already well known not only in Russia but all around the globe. Who in Europe is shocked to see the necon line being pushed, and pushed — to insanity — even though population is sick and tired of it. But the pushers have this belief in their power of persuasion.
Let us look at the reality. Turkey has entered Syria at Jarabulus, and cut a wide corridor to Al-Bab. Those were held by ISIS — but it was clear after Manbij, that US policy of nation-building intended to use Kurdish forces to "liberate" places from ISIS, and create a CONTIGUOUS land link between Afrin and Kobani Kurdish areas. But that meant ethnic cleansing of Syrian Arabs, – Sunni, Christian or Shia, as well as Turkmen. Kurds wanted Al-Bab for a simple reason. A land bridge to Raqqa and link up to Kobani Kurds. Without Afrin Kurds — Kobani Kurds do not have the numbers to conquer entire Raqqa region, even less Deir Azzor. Turkey recruited a big number of former anti-Assad groups, mostly self-proclaimed Free Syrian Army to do ground battles. They gladly did that, as Kurds were treatening them with expulsion, Manbij being a stellar example. Even though it is still being perceived as if Turkey is in it against Damascus will, it is a game. Damascus cannot be seen as being against Kurds, its own people — even thouogh Kurds have become US proxy. But Russia helped Turkey by joint aviation strikes in the final days of Al-Bab offensive. When Sirian Army closed in south of Al-Bab — Sputnik again gave voice to those hoping for Russia’s failure, to prognosticate how the Free Syrian Army and Turkey, in close contact with Sirian Army at Al-Bab was going to come to blows. But it did not. In fact, both Turkey, Russia and Damascus are determined to keep this corridor strong, and not allow excuses of fighting ISIS giving way to Afrin Kurds breaking out of their area. Now that Turkey and Iran have reached a deal against Kurdish state, and in favor of Syrian territorial integrity, the same smarty pants are hoping beyond hope that this will diminish Russian role. What nonsense. Russia is not in Syria as a lone ranger, but is advancing Eurasian political goals. And the goals are simple — eliminate the role of former colonial European countries in the settlement of any Middle Eastern conflict. Instead, Turkey and Iran are key to forge political settlement for the region, with Russia being the military gurarantor, and China, political and economic gurarantor. Iraqi settlement is shaping the same way.
Let us look at the subtle games, such as Free Syrian Army move into Deir Azzor region. This is a message to US and Kurds — you have no manpower to control the post-ISIS territory. So, as Syrian Army is battling with Russia’s aviation its way to Deir Azzor ISIS surrounded town, it is the vast country side and desert in between Kurdish liberated areas around Raqqa and Syrian advances to Deir Azzor — that Turkish supported militants can fill. As in the case of Jarabulus-Al-Bab corridor, it looks like this is a begining of another corridor that would box in this time Kobani Kurds from expanding into Arab areas with US help. Speculation will be rife — once again — about Turkish treachery, as Damascus cannot be seen as in any way being anti-Kurd. This is a very important positon — as not all Kurds are thrilled to become US possesion littered by US bases.
I agree with this assessment. We are conditioned by centuries of Western-centric world to think that only Western nations coordinate their policies and actions, while the rest of the world is still living by the laws of the jungle. That is, everybody is trying to outsmart everybody else, and to the winners go spoils. This has not been the case for the past 17 years, since the founding of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as a result of a shocking and scandalous attack of Serbia and arbitrary support of secessionism in that country. Taking Kosovo out of Serbia, and the subsequent UN wranglings, contributed to the growth and maturing of Eurasian world view, as opposed to West-centic world view.
Iran itself was one of the first major victories in wrestling control over Iranian nuclear issue from US. By resolving the issue with agreement, Iran has become free to conduct its foreign policy in concert with China and Russia. I actually do not believe that there is any difference in their positions. Iran was forced to help Syria early on, as the events in Iraq indicated how the weaponization of poor and desparate population in the Middle East could quickly ovesrwhelm the region, and make it a playground for Western powers and Israel. As the help was not sufficient, and the various militants threatening to overwhelm the densely populated regions, Russia’s decision to step in was NOT A LONE RANGER DECISION. This move was a calculated one and as a minimum involved Iran and China, and for sure it got support from many others who would rather not advertise that. That meant support by Shanghai Cooperatation Organization, both permanent members, observers and partners. Turkey was on board early on, even though by reading press one would have never guessed that. The coup attempt only freed up Turkey to be openly in Eurasian political structures. And in spite of all the prognostications to the contrary, that meant more and more open partnership between Turkey and Iran.
Trump’s announcement notwithstanding on Pakistan’s role in terrorism, Pakistan will be the third link in this regional Eurasian coordination. All the happy prognostications of the disunity and lack of coordination, of assuming that each country there outside the advanced Western civilization is ready to slit the throat of others, and joyfully outsmart its partner — has been debunked many times before. But old habits and old assumptions stay with us long after they have lost their meaning. Sputnik can afford to publish a neocon friendly piece, giving them something to cheer about. It is also very important for Russia and Damascus not to be seen to close to a anti-Kurdish initiative. But the reality is, while Russia and Damascus are keeping lines open to Kurds, if Kurdish leadership continues to rely on US promises of independence, and becoming another Kosovo — a troublemaker in the region — two regional powers are not going to allow that. The stage is set for the next round of dealing with Syrian territorial integrity. And I am sure that all the actors in Eurasian universe are talking to each other, and have calculated many a potential step ahead, as situation arises. Let us not be dismissive of their intelligence.
You are just repeating neocon favorite fantasies. The primitive world, as opposed to us, chosen, exceptional and indispensable, is not capable of coordination, strategy and long term accommodation of mutual interests. This is so far from reality, so behind times. When State Department spokesperson stated that Lavrov sometimes gets ahead of himself, his response may sum up the era we live in "Do not lag behind events". Indeed, necons still believe they control the reality, just because they control the media narratives. And that by increasing the fake narrative, its frequency and decibels, they will convice the world that day is night, and vice versa. Times of one sided interpretation of reality are over. Times for only one group of nations being entitled to benefits of globalization are over. And time for only West-centric world to not be the arbiter of every conflict has definitely arrived. Thus, I do not believe that the stories that reach down back to centuries will have impact on Russian or Iranian actions. Neither of them is lone ranger.
As for the Russian-Israeli relationships they are more determined by the annual clip of over 300,000 Russian Jews returning to Russia from Israel, then anything else. Israel is losing population and that is much bigger problem for Israel’s plan for exansion then anything else. But most human beings are not inclined to suffer hardships if they have any other choice. And some of them are voting by their feet.
This has become so obvious, that only blind people are those who chose not to see.
Branka Alhamdy Well Russia is welcome to Syria, while Ukraine (bound to Russland by so many ties) can’t leave Putinistan quickly enough.
Even people in traditionally Russian speaking cities like Kiev are more nationalistic, and an increasing use of Ukrainian, Latin alphabets and learning English. Russian is fast becoming a holodomor (horrible ?) memory.
But that’s Putin for you. He has temporarily stopped Soviet decline, but at the expense of cleaving Ukraine and binding the old Warsaw pact to NATO, including part of the Empire (Baltics).
Enjoy your short summer, winter is coming.
So you hope your enemy’s enemies are all friends….. time for a hair transplant.
Branka Alhamdy Only blind people cannot see Russia has rarely done good in the world. Ask your fellow Slavs… Poles, Czs, Croats, and now Ukrainians.
Branka Alhamdy Total nonsense, they may be united by their dislike of the US. But they have nothing else in common.
Your good buddy RasPutin also stepped in to Crimea and E Ukraine. Short term gain but long term loss. Russia is finished. I say that with no happiness as I have worked in Russland and respect Russians.