A ‘consensus’ was reached at a meeting in New Delhi over the weekend between the government and leaders of India’s opposition parties that the five-week long military standoff with China in the Sikkim region should be resolved peacefully.
The headlines have begun moving away from the topic as if an unseen hand is guiding. The standoff could be inching its way toward denouement.
‘De-escalation’ is the new mantra. The good part is that the clamor for war with China by hotheads in India does not reflect the official thinking (anymore).
China probably widening road in Doklam
Meanwhile, there is much greater clarity about what really happened on the ground.
First, contrary to what India media claimed, there has been no Chinese ‘intrusion’ on to India’s sacred soil. On the contrary, Indian military moved into Doklam on the China-Bhutan border, which has been under Chinese control all along.
Second, reports projected that a standoff ensued as China started building a road in Doklam. But there is evidence now that a road was already in existence for over a decade at least and China was probably widening it.
Third, India claimed that its intervention was at the request of Bhutan. China disputed the claim. Significantly, after a visit to Thimphu by the spouse of the Chinese ambassador in Delhi and her meeting with the Bhutanese king last week, Beijing maintains that Bhutan did not seek Indian military intervention.
Fourth, and most importantly, China maintains that it is within its sovereign right to build roads in an area under its control. Whereas, Indian reports sensed a ‘mission creep’ with a hidden Chinese agenda to eventually threaten the Siliguri corridor, a hundred kilometers to the south, which connects India’s restive northeast with the hinterland.
However, this ‘threat perception’ appears to be based on an exaggerated notion since the Chumbi Valley in Tibet which leads toward the Indian border itself is a narrow corridor flanked by steep mountains, which India dominates. A former Indian corps commander Lt Gen KJ Singh put it this way:
‘‘Treacherous mountainous jungle terrain and (a) total absence of connectivity limits application of force levels and will reduce it to a slogging crawl. (Any) such offensives need logistic sustenance, (as the) narrow Chumbi valley, dominated on both flanks, with limited deployment spaces and acclimatization challenges is a virtual death trap. While granting credit to (the) Chinese for favorable force ratios, its actual efficacy has to be discounted as force multipliers have severe limitation in application due to weather and terrain.’’
All things taken into account, therefore, the current standoff is not so much about territory as the ‘great game’ over Bhutan.
India has been treating Bhutan as its ‘protectorate’ ever since Great Britain left the subcontinent in 1947. But lately, through the past decade or so, China started nibbling away at Indian influence by working on fault lines that had begun appearing in India-Bhutan relations over time.
India harbors a deep sense of disquiet about China’s direct dealings with Bhutan, especially on border disputes. By the military intervention in Doklam, India has inserted itself as the proverbial elephant in the room. This is one thing.
‘High-stakes’ election in Bhutan next year
Interestingly, the current standoff is playing out in the run-up to a crucial parliamentary election in Bhutan, which is due in mid-2018.
The forthcoming election will be a high stakes affair for New Delhi, which is keen that the present ‘pro-India’ Bhutanese prime minister Tshering Tobgay secures a renewed mandate. (He deposed his ‘pro-China’ predecessor Jigme Thinley in the 2013 election with some Indian manipulation from the back stage.)
To be sure, a calibrated brinkmanship seems to characterize the current standoff – in both Indian and Chinese behavior. Bhutan says nothing much.
Bhutan must be aware of the great game by its two giant neighbors over its strategic autonomy. Sadly, it is caught up in a debt trap. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bhutan’s government debt now stands at 118% of GDP, with India by far the largest creditor, accounting for 64% of Bhutan’s total debt. Of course, much of India’s ‘aid’ effectively promoted project exports to Bhutan by Indian companies.
As a former Indian ambassador and top expert on Himalayan affairs, P Stobdan wrote last week, India’s “colonial-style approach of buying loyalty through economic aid” may not work anymore. Do not be surprised if Bhutan views China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ as the salvation – following Nepal’s footfalls.
If so, it must be the mother of all ironies because India is waging a relentless whispering campaign against the Belt and Road, warning that it leads to ‘debt trap’.
Bhutanese nationalism and resentment of Indian ‘hegemony’, is, no doubt, a strong undercurrent, and Delhi cannot ignore it much longer.
Intervention in neighboring countries to browbeat them is a grotesque foreign-policy legacy left behind by decades of successive Congress Party governments in India. It is an archaic mindset.
On Sri Lanka, Prime Minister Narendra Modi brought in refreshingly new thinking to India’s policy and a tumultuous relationship (which tragically took the life of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi) steadied almost overnight.
A similar imaginative approach is needed vis-à-vis Bhutan.
We people know the game of expelling Nepalese from Bhutan. There is such a great hidden meaning, that ethnic Bhutanese Nepalese were expelled from Bhutan. Little Knowledge is dangerous. Stronger nation do anything they like, Bhutan is stronger due to its treaty with India, so is the case. If one read the whole story of ethnic cleansing of Nepalese from Bhutan, you will just cry deeply. When upon the fulcrum of India, Bhutan disagreed the acceptance of Refugees into Bhutan, Western Countries gave safe route of third country settlement plan. One cruel fact is that Bhutan do not want the interference of Nepalese, because they think that these people will show Bhutan the way of Sikkim annexation. The next benefit to India is that Ethnic Indian Nepalese living in India, Bhutan could be threat to India in future. Some extreme nationalist group in Nepal support the concept of Greater Nepal. India is very happy when those Ethnic Bhutanese Nepalese were expelled from Bhutan. Then the gross national Happiness Index of Drukpas also reached above than Mt. Everest, so became the happiest country ever…..!!! God bless the Lion Drukpas!!!……..The Buddhist King and the Buddhist Nation, that massacred their own countrymen, and also did atrocities of innocent Nepalese cousins……..
Boon Ler Yaaah i watch CNBC….i think a public issue will come when the chinese will acquire bhutan & then they will float a Joint stock company it will be called Chinese Country Acquisition limited….the lead bankers will be Goldman Sachs,Rotschild,Barclays,JP Morgan & ICBC which is chinese merchant bank….the issue will be listed in Newyork stock exchange & London stock exchange….the main revenue stream for company is lease rental income from rivers,moutains,farms,estates like that….the poor bhutanese king will now have to seek a refugee place somewhere he will watch the daily ticker price of capitalization of his country
‘Probably’? Come on, don’t do speculative journalism!
first Nepali-speaking doesn’t necessarily make them a migrant. the king of Bhutan himself was born in a hospital in Kathmandu. is he not a migrant then? second, annexed by whom? Nepal doesn’t even border Bhutan.
Alok Narayan What a Dr. I hope Indian full of people like you. I hope Modi paid you enough to spew garbage here.
" Bhutanese nationalism and resentment of Indian ‘hegemony’, is, no doubt, a strong undercurrent, and Delhi cannot ignore it much longer." POINTS TO BE NOTED.
In interesting article to get the picture from the western source. Would love to read comments and views on its contents from Bhutanese scholars and those watchers, who watch developments in Bhutan in an objective and scholastic manner.
Interesting article to get the picture of the current standoff. Hope some Bhutanese scholars would make comments and veiws on the contents of this article.
The photo in this post is by http://lincolnpotter.com not by the source you mentioned
Vijay Raghavan Have you being to Tibet to post such a statement. Perhaps you have read to much BBC, CNN, etc. proudly in the name of freedom of press. Fake News or Not! Being an outsider of the region, truly surprise of Indian’s ‘action as the no supports from other countries except India is trying to make reference to other regional issues.
Since Bhutan is still in the shadow without uttering any further words, technically Is Bhutan also at war potential with China. Wondering how strong a country claim of it’s territory in this case, I meant Bhutan as a sovereign country. If it is, of course.
It is about anything except Bhutan whose voice is nowhere to be found but sadly it is being played out in its territory… That ought to dent a bit on their famed reputation of happiest folks on earth.
Someone got to finish us before dreaming of annexation. Else, we know you like the back of our hands. Bhutanese could be humblest people on earth but if provoked we can be flesh eating, blood drinking and bone gnawing. We still have the bloods of our ancestors flowing deep down in us.
Vijay Raghavan If they have not already, they they surely are going to become extinct what with the Indians strangling the entire Bhutanese economy and their political life. Meantime Vijay, I suppose you are hoping too that half their population will emulate you Indians to defecate in the open and half or more of their population follow you down the miserable path of living below the poverty line?
Shuami Bev Because, Firstly, unlike the Chinese model they don’t believe in the top-bottom unabated exploitation of whatever little natural resources that they have, and instead they prefer a more caliberated approach. Secondly, unlike the high interest credit and foreign labour intensive OBOR brouhaha they not only have low-interest project finances and inclusive labour soucing norms but close to 1 Billiom USD per year of development aid. Thirdly, b’coz the law of the physics dictate that unlike the slowing chinese economy and sparsly populated Tibet their is minimum transmission losses and an ever increasing long-term suppy potential to both India and Bangladesh. And, Lasltly, coz the schmuk Chinese leadership have tirelessly mocked the common Bhutanese crave for an alternate Gross National Happiness instead of Gross Domestic Product.
Alok Narayan lol. And you are a doctor?
Jung Bahadur Thapa we India never officially blockaded you. It was your fellow Nepalis who were protesting in the no-man’s land while trucks where lined up at the Indian border outposts. Secondly, it was the wily Upper-class Hill elite masquerading as communists revolutionaries, that renegade on their own solemn political promise of due constitutional repressentations which lead to such a protest.
Nepal solved it’s border problem with China long time back. We even shared the different faces of Everest. I think the time has come Bhutan to step out into the big world no matter what price it has to pay. We here in Nepal faced three severe economic blockades from a neighbour we help defend from it’s enemies…
Yeah like giving grants of over 950 million USD to Bhutan every year since 2014. And plus developing hydroelectric potential of Bhutan which could change Bhutan in a regional energy supplier just like gulf countries. You must have heard of recent India Bangladesh Bhutan grid connection project. Try harder Wangchuk!
Chinese trying to be friends of bhutan by giving lectures about sovereignty….. bhutan do not consider u friend enough to have a chinese embassy in their land….think about Tibet,hong kong and south china countries before giving lectures on sovereignty….. several asian countries-Vietnam,Taiwan,Philippines,japan are fed up of their bullying attitude