So, once again it’s down to a face-off in the Himalayas. Beijing builds a road in the disputed territory of Doklam (if you’re Indian) or Donglang (if you’re Chinese), in the tri-junction of Sikkim, Tibet and Bhutan, and all hell breaks loose. Or does it?
The Global Times blames it on an upsurge of Hindu nationalist fervor, but selected Indian officials prefer to privilege ongoing quiet diplomacy. After all, when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana last month, they struck a gentleman’s agreement; this dispute is not supposed to escalate, and there’s got to be a mutually face saving solution.
The tri-junction drama is actually a minor tremor in the much larger picture of the ongoing geopolitical tectonic shift in Eurasia. The major subplot occurs in the conjunction between the inexorable momentum of the New Silk Roads, aka China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s push, these past nine years, to assert itself as a major naval power in the Indian Ocean.
In a nutshell, India could not but be deeply disturbed by China becoming a decisive front row player across South Asia – including in that Maritime Silk Road superhighway, the Indian Ocean.
The first-ever railway in Tibet, opened eleven years ago, links Lhasa with Xining, in northwest China. This railway will inevitably proceed all the way to Kathmandu, and assuming an OK from New Delhi – not on the cards for the time being – to north India as well. The key element of the New Silk Roads is Eurasian connectivity. And Beijing is the super-connector, not Delhi, with the scale and scope of BRI implying at least US$1 trillion in short-term investment alone.
When India looks around, to its east or to its west, what it sees is China connecting everything from Dhaka in Bangladesh to Bandar Abbas in Iran.
We’re talking about the interpenetration of the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor; the China-Indian Ocean-Africa-Mediterranean Sea Blue Economic Passage; the China-Pakistan Corridor (CPEC); and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC). To call all this an orgy of connectivity is an understatement.
Enter “BRICS-Plus”
Hindu nationalism qualifies South Asia and the Indian Ocean as an indisputable sphere of influence for Indian civilization – and one not that dissimilar to China’s in relation to the South China Sea. Borders are scrutinized to the millimeter, especially now that the success of BRI is at stake.
The Doklam/Donglang stand-off pales, however, in comparison with the real danger zone. New Delhi argues that CPEC will be transiting an illegal territory, described in India as “Pak-occupied Kashmir.”
South Asia happens to be all for BRI – with the wary self-exception of India. New Delhi refused to attend the recent BRI forum in Beijing, issuing an official statement: “No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
New Delhi’s boycott actually betrays the fact it has seen the writing on the wall. Pakistan is destined to “link together a series of Eurasian economic blocs”, including the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). And this connectivity feast will also boost the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), which, crucially, both India and Pakistan have just joined.
The following proposal, from the chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank, offers immense food for thought: the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) should be enlarged to a BRICS+ or BRICS++. Beijing enthusiastically agrees – it has, in fact, proposed its own “BRICS-Plus” idea to unite various BRI partners. Pakistan, as host of the CPEC connectivity corridor, would certainly be in line for “BRICS-Plus” membership.
So we have China and India as members of BRICS (including the bloc’s New Development Bank), the SCO, the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), and of the G-20, and India and Pakistan as members of the SCO. And then we have all three nations as members of a future BRICS-Plus. It all points towards interpenetration, inter-connectivity and advanced Eurasian integration.
To allow Hindu nationalism to block New Delhi’s involvement in BRI would be counter-productive, to put it mildly. China-India bilateral trade was US$70.08 billion last year. China is India’s top trading partner.
Still, India launched an attempt at a counter-offensive last month when it joined the United Nations TIR convention, a global customs transit system with huge geographical coverage. India’s TIR gambit covers only Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, however. To think this might dent the appeal of BRI – with its massive funds, support from the Silk Road Fund, the AIIB and further on down the road, private financing (from East and West) – is, frankly, naïve wishful thinking.
Stuff BRI, we’ve got AAGC
BRI is a juggernaut that has evolved over the past four years and is finally ready to launch its full connectivity firepower. Compare its resources with India’s infrastructure predicament, its jungle of red-tape, its lack of funds for Eurasia-wide projects, and even the fact that its GDP growth dropped below China’s in 2016.
There’s also that pesky geopolitical open secret – that Pakistan constitutes a de facto Great Wall blocking India’s land route to the West and its expansion across Central Asia. New Delhi is trying to circumvent these facts on the ground by all means available.
The AAGC was duly derided in Beijing as a New Delhi-Tokyo scheme – aided and abetted by Washington – to sabotage China’s drive towards Eurasian integration. The case can certainly be made
These include the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), founded in September 2000 by India, Iran and Russia, and which could potentially connect India to Europe via the Persian Gulf; investing in a trade corridor between the Iranian port of Chabahar and Afghanistan; trying to copy BRI via its TIR gambit, but on the cheap, without massive investment in infrastructure. And, to counter what New Delhi brands BRI’s “Sinocentrism”, there’s its purported trump card, unveiled by Modi himself at the general meeting of the African Development Bank (AfDB) in the capital of Gujarat last May – the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), supported by Japan.
The AAGC has been spun by India as a project “acceptable for the banking sector,” as opposed to BRI’s “government-funded model.” In theory, the AAGC is about Asia-Africa integration. Japan brings its expertise technology and infrastructure building, India its “experience in Africa.”
The AAGC was duly derided in Beijing as a New Delhi-Tokyo scheme – aided and abetted by Washington – to sabotage China’s drive towards Eurasian integration. The case can certainly be made. New Delhi’s multiple strategies, so far, have yielded more rhetoric than action. Soon it may all come down to “if you can’t beat them, join them.” The ball is in the Hindu nationalist court.
It may be better for evryone if India is left alone to pursue its own future. The BRI seeks partners and not vassals. A win win cooperative mentality is required which India has not displayed at all the last few years.
As in Indian I do not like it but it’s very true. If India has to stay away or feel more secure, they should have started the proper strategy few decades back. China well played so far… Not that it makes me feel easy 🙁
Please don’t respond with foolish comments, stay decent
Must say Pakistan should thank its stars that China has such a strong leadership for many decades. Pakistan has repeatedly tried to commit self harming stuff many times over. Thanks to China, hope to see increased normalcy in India’s neighbourhood soon. (One thing that India will seriously thank China for soon)
Your views are objective. Great of you to remain sane.
India is acting as cat paw for unitedsnakes , BRICS/SCO’s mortal enemy,.
it has just invaded a fellow SCO member.
SCO should expel this murkkan trojan pronto,
Else it’d be seen as a laughing stock with zero credibility.
North Korea next missile & nuke test will be 12000kms long & 200Mt that is what china will do….china is also a very clever country
It looks that Modi does not have full control of India’s military which has moved 3 divisions in the adjacent regions, Modern wars are fought with armour, mechanised troops, fighter planes, missiles, etc. It will not be that hard to take out India missile installations and deciminate the 3 divisions, Even India’s Hindus are not that foolish to use their nukes as they will be nuked right back. Pakistan and other India’s neighbours will move to recover their land which has been annexed by India. USA will of course be happy if nukes are used but it will be a legitimate target for instigating this confrontation and should be prudent to restrain India just as China is cooperating on North Korea’s nuke program..
Like it or not, with the present state India, I would guess it will take a 100 years for India to get to what China is today. Its not that the Indians are not capable. I would submit that the Indians are an extremely clever race of people. Its their embrace and boast of being the largest "democracy" as a system of government in a country with very high illiteracy rate, very high poverty rate coupled with an exploding population growth having a 100 different languages speaking in a 100 different tongues and having 10s of religions and worshipping a 1000 different gods, I would submit that if God himself comes down to India, he would proper give up trying to put India on the straight and proper! But then, the Indians, (basically the Hindu nationalists) would probably boast claim that if God can’t do it, they can! Modi should really send a 100 thousand representatives selected from each state in the country to take a look, say for a month or 2, in China and see what the Chinese government has done for China over a short space of just a quarter of a century, from a ranking at almost the bottom of the heap. And it is still galloping along at pretty good speed, regardless of the doomsday fake news spun by the western media and authors about its economy. It is almost an unstoppable juggernaut. The visitors from India I am sure will very quickly wake up to reality and see the differences between their country and China. Then, maybe, they will not try to be so gung-ho to try to pick quarrels/fights with China, and work together to show to the western developed countries that poor underdeveloped/developing countries can also make progress, catch up, and build great societies.
For some strange reason India is "Stuck" in a trap that they built for their enemies but instead has devoured India. If they don’t wake up and join China in BRI this will put them in a position of weakness that they may never recover from. China, is willing to bend over to help India realize their "Potential" but the foolish elites in India keep pushing China away!
Vijay Raghavan
nukes again ?
Do you people wank yourself over Agni 5 the ‘China killer’ ? [sic]
Perhaps its god’s will that China got the A bomb first.
Beijing immediately declared no first use.
China never threatened Delhi even once with nuclear blackmail during
the two decades when it enjoyed nuclear monopoly.
Had it been India which got the bomb first it’d most likely attack China without hesitation.
Raimondo says MOdi makes him nervous, he should read what those Hindu fanatics post here, very scary stuff.
Looks like the inmates have taken over the asylum in India.
Once a sepoy, always a sepoy.
http://bit.ly/2h12AaO
Even though the Indians now have the country under their thumbs, the sovereignty issue of Bhutan will not go away until the Indians annex the territory.
Sir,upsurge of Hindu nationalist fervor is probably unconstitutional in India is Gandhi was here.India is basically federated of nation state as her different regions have different language and cultures.Hindi cant be a national langusge.India is going through a prcess like East Pakistan did in 1966 when Bengali language and her culture confronted Urdu and West Pakistan culture that endedup with violent confrontatios and desolution of the state.India has much bigger problems that could threaten her unity.Mr Modi is incapible of understanding.He is totall obsesed with challenging a superpoer like china that is always extending her helping hand to Indian people!m karim
Thats not a mature arguement.
how would china like it if the US had unfettered access to ports in Taiwan or a base in Hongkong?
the trijunction is a 100Kms away from the ‘Chickes neck" corridor.
for India to remain sane- China, being the great power needs to give confidence. there is a history of china throwiing its weight around (whether you like it or not) and India just cannot accept that.
There is nothing easy in international politics. China and Pakistan fears India’s rise. It fear nationalism in India because the gun start to talk with communist and islamist terrorists in India. Soon we will become free from these cowards and will end their last hope. Then about economics, unless India become a importer goods from these countriesand use of these roads China has to swet alot to recover it’s money. Make in India fuelled with the help of Japanese and US technology will collapse Chinese Monopoly in Africa and ultimately Gwadar and CPEC become another Detroit.
China may able to play with small neighbors in South and east China sea.if they use that strategy to deal with real power, Chinese media have to cry everyday for deescalation.
James Denk you felt like that because you might read cheap Chinese daily everyday. Open the doors of iron dom and watch outside.
We Indians believe in "Live and Let Live".. looking at long history of India we never invaded any country and never exploited other nations resources..on the other hand China has always have conflicts with all their neighbors..they have encroached Tibet and spoiled their culture..the atrocities done by them is totally inhuman.. they are cruel to their own countrymen..they crushed hundreds of unarmed youths at Tiananmen square by running over the Battle Tanks..only a psychopath can do that and the chooses leadership did that..for Chinese leadership their countrymen are like farm animals..can be butchered anytime anywhere depending on the demand.. on the other hand we have Pakistan well known for its terror breeding form..a safe haven for terrorists..hated and isolated by most of the civilised nations.. A Dictatorship nation chooser a terror breeding nation as their slave. slavery is not new Pakistan as they good experience of being slave for Americans..now Pakistan has become another province for China.. India has no problems with China’s road plans or sea route plans..but India will certainly take a tough stand if our national security is under threat.. and for the information of Asia Times writer india is driven by Indian nationalist ideology not by Hindu nationalist ideology..
OK you guys. Do not mess wiith Hindu nationalis (Hindu Tava). They know everything. They even know, somethinthing no one in the world believes, that the Hindus made the Universe. They had color TV thousands of years ago, complete with remote control. Come on, come to your senses!
I think there will be no war…..when nations have nukes especially america,russia or other countries they may have shipped it to their embassy & would have dug it into the earth in beijing,shanghai & other places….similarly china would have also done that in many countries….so even china boasting it has missile shield etc etc will not be useful when real war happens what missile shield you will have for such scenarios…..so it is better to talk peace & solve issues amicably
‘We Indians believe in "Live and Let Live".. looking at long history of India we never invaded any country and never exploited other nations resources’
Cough cough…..
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura ,Sikkim, BHutan, Kashmir, Goa
Indian hegemony in South Asia makes the murkkan Monroe doctrine looks like child’s play.
Exhibit 1
https://www.quora.com/Will-Nagaland-and-Manipur-get-freedom-from-India
[WARNING.
Not for the faint hearted !!!]
TAM ‘massacre’ !
Have your cool aid yet ?
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2011/07/01/commentary/black-info-and-media-gullibility-creation-of-the-tiananmen-myth/
‘.the atrocities done by them is totally inhuman.. they are cruel to their own countrymen.’
Honey that’d have described Indians down to a tee…
Exhibit 2
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/mar/01/comment.india
P.S.
Those are tip of an iceberg.
Atimes censor my posts
do not criticize people please… you can be born as a poor in your next life… Mo
I’m married to a Pakistani and am fully versed in the outlook between the two sides. I am also somewhat sympathetic to much of your post. However I think it’s unnecessarily extremist suggestion and uncompromising vision of something which only great suffering and violence could bring about, is unhelpful to say the least. The fact is India and Pakistan are the same people. The girls especially have more in common despite the religious difference, that East and West Australians have with each other. The caste system is disgusting, an ungly blight on the nation but don’t tell me the rampant racism in Pakistan and extreme CLASS system are much better.
The British backed Pakistan’s creation Indian independence was on the cards, in a deliberate and ever since successful effort to ensure a united and powerful India was not a possibility. Had it not happened, today such a united India would be majority Muslim as well. Indians and Pakistanis need to wake up to the fact they’re paddling the same kayak in the same dangerous waters.
Vipul Singh There’s some truth to what you say too, but if you’re suggesting India has been blameless in this, you’re off your rocker and if you think India is currently acting in its own interests by courting both sides of everything whilst allowing the poisonous Zionists inside the gates, you’re totally crazy.
I have to wonder how your nation deals with nuclear material if you think what you just described is even possible. Good stuff. The only way what you describe could occur is if there was insider collusion. That is why there are indeed "Israeli" nukes inside the USA borders and one or two others. I am not interested in giving you a physics education here but I suggest you get one before making such a suggestion again.
Jishnu India Excellent example of blind and self destsructive Indian nationalism. Well done. Now we can see why India has fallen behind and continues to make th wrong decisions. Too bad your countryman above isn’t the majority I’d say. India should be so much more than a Zionist/American vassal. Haven’t you realised yet they always find their vassals dispsosable? India for all it’s size is as bad at choosing allies as the equally ancient Kurds who always seem to get into bed with their own and everyone’s worst enemy. At least Pakistan with all its corruption has been a reluctant vassal and for the creeps and its people have the decency to be ahsamed about it. India needs to fix it’s toilets, learn how to treat women with respect and stand up on its own feet and stop being a bumboy for Uncle Sam and Uncle Shylock.
Jishnu India Jishnu, I believe I have made my point about your own dire lack of knowledge above. James clearly does read much more than some Chinese daily. He made a number of historically valid points. You on the other hand have demonstrated zero knoweldge of even the recent history of your own conflict wuth China. Your presumption does you no favours ion the internet. Despite none of the weaponry and backing of both major world powers, India couldn’t even come close to beating China last time and Chinese honor and magnanimity afterwards was extraordinary. I recently learned the facts of that conflict and I was stunned at how magnificently they clobbered a superior army, how honorable and humane they were to prisoners and the incredible generosity afterwards left me speechless. I have much less fear of China under any circumstances after learning of it. You would on the other hand, given your belligerance and evident desire for conflict, find it very, very scary if you had the sense to acknowledge it. Furthermore I have seen the belligerance of Indians when they have the upper hand, your treatment of females is but a taste of the Hindu attitude to anybody weaker than them. Pakistan lives in fear of your belligerance and that is why they have their military, not the other way around.
Get this little detail, and if you understand modern warfare it should make you shudder. The Indians all had automatic and semi-automatic assault rifles in the last war. The Chinese had nothing but bolt action rifles. Indian artillery was mounted on vehicles, the Chinese carried theirs on their backs!
Jishnu India Do u have toilet in you home, 750,000,000 in Inddia do’t
A foolish rheotric comment (that too after sitting in NY) increasing the garbage quotient in otherwise reasonably healthy viewpoint discussion
India is full of morons.