The spread between two and 10-year US Treasuries fell to an eight-month low Tuesday, a bad sign for US banks’ profitability.
The spread narrowed to 84.71 bps, from a post-election high of 135.5 bps, according to Bloomberg data.
Investors have lowered expectations for Trump’s expansive fiscal policy as his tax reform and infrastructure agenda items are running behind schedule. On top of that, easing core inflation and mixed economic data have added doubts.
“In spite of well-wishers, the US economy and the Trump fiscal package may disappoint market expectations,” interest rate strategist at MUFG was quoted by the Financial Times as saying.
“This is late-cycle stuff and no wonder why the yield curve spread continues to shrink,” Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group said.
The KBW banks index has fallen 9.9% since early March, after a huge post-election rally. Bank of America has shed 12.1% after a 50% bump from November 8 to March 1, falling 0.78% on Tuesday. Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase all posted losses on Tuesday.