The Trump administration needs to make it clear that the current balance of power in Asia, while uneasy, is acceptable, but Chinese hegemony is not.
That is the argument Ely Ratner makes in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs:
“In recent years, however, China has begun to assert its claims more vigorously and is now poised to seize control of the sea. Should it succeed, it would deal a devastating blow to the United States’ influence in the region, tilting the balance of power across Asia in China’s favor.” […]
“U.S. policymakers should recognize that China’s behavior in the sea is based on its perception of how the United States will respond. The lack of U.S. resistance has led Beijing to conclude that the United States will not compromise its relationship with China over the South China Sea. As a result, the biggest threat to the United States today in Asia is Chinese hegemony, not great-power war. U.S. regional leadership is much more likely to go out with a whimper than with a bang.”
The commentary comes amid uncertainty regarding the Trump administration’s foreign policy in the region. Many have noted that North Korea has distracted Washington from the issue of the South China Sea, with some speculating that Trump is holding off pressure on that issue – as he implied he has with trade – in exchange for help on the Korean peninsula.
The foreign policy establishment, led by Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, tried to reassure allies in the region this week that the US is not ceding influence in the Pacific to China.
Speaking to lawmakers on Wednesday Mattis said of naval exercises that” This (Freedom of Navigation exercise) is our policy. We will continue this.” He added, “could it change if circumstances change? Of course, but right now Secretary Tillerson and I give him the military factors — and we’re in league together on this, so I don’t think anything is going to change.”
Well-known China politics watcher Bill Bishop expressed his worry this week that this status quo is not enough and even a shift to a harder line policy from Washington may be too little too late, adding color to Ratner’s argument:
“As I wrote almost two years ago, 吃硬不吃软 (chi1ying4 bu4 chi1ruan3), defined by the invaluable Pleco as ‘be open to coercion, but not to persuasion’ is a concept worth learning. This seems to describe the CCP’s approach to the world, especially in the Xi Jinping era”
Ratner’s conclusion echoes many voices in Washington, but it is entirely dependent on cooperation from other regional actors. If the political trajectory of Southeast Asia continues on its current course, regardless of whether the US sacrifices friendly relations with Beijing to hold the line in the South China Sea, we can hardly expect other countries to follow suit.
Under Donald Trump relationships with foreign leaders are dropping like flies with a good dose of fly spray.
Yeah, the Yellow Peril! Isn’t it?!
The game is not close to being over and President Trump is a much better negotiator than Barack Obama. Trump will set the table with the Chinese. You can count on it!
The neoFascist will have to bootstrap the McCarthy witch-hunts on those who are considered to have lost the seas in its backyard.
It has seemed obvious to me China has counter balanced disruption in North Korea with expansion in the South China Sea to keep the U.S. confused and out of balance. The U.S. cannot ignore North Korea because South Korea and Japan are vulnerable and extremely important to the U.S. But then the U.S. cannot ignore the South China Sea because of its oil and because it is the narrow transiet route for billions and billions of dollars worth of trade. Combining that with endless trouble in the Middle East makes it very difficult to see how the U.S. can prevent China’s expansion.
China and ASEAN wants peace in the South China Sea. It is their backyard. USA should butt out. The CIA need to stop its training / arming of terrorists there and drug operations. This war mongering there is idiotic and there will be blowback in USA.
"We’ve always been at war with Eastasia"