At its most obvious level, Iran’s missile attack on the Islamic State command centre in the Syrian city of Dier Ezzor on Sunday may be regarded as the demonstration of an extraordinarily innovative military capability.
Iran says it fired six ground-to-ground missiles from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) bases in Kermanshah and Kurdistan provinces, both in Western Iran, and that they “hit the targets in Deir Ezzur with high precision after flying through the Iraqi airspace.”
The footage shows that at least one of the missiles was of the Zolfaqar class and at least one more was of the Qiam class, both indigenously developed missiles. Zolfaqar is the latest generation of Iran’s mid-range missiles. It can hit targets up to 700 kilometres away and is capable of carrying a Multiple-Entry Vehicle payload. Qiam is a surface-to-surface cruise missile.
From all accounts, the missiles hit their target with devastating precision. Simply put, Iran has notified the US that its 45,000 troops deployed in bases in Iraq (5,165), Kuwait (15,000), Bahrain (7,000), Qatar (10,000), the UAE (5,000) and Oman (200) are highly vulnerable.
The Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Hossein Baqueri, said on Monday: “Iran is among the world’s big powers in the missile field. They (read the US and its allies) don’t have the capability to engage in conflict with us at present, and of course, we don’t intend to involve in clashes with them, but we are in permanent rivalry with them in different fields, including the missile sector.”
Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had specifically forewarned Washington last Wednesday that “if the US decides to start any war against Iran, all its military bases in the region will experience insecurity.”
Clearly, the missile strike constitutes a snub to the US Senators who passed a bill on Friday imposing more sanctions against Iran over its missile program. It is also a defiant response to US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s ill-conceived remark on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s policy towards Iran includes “regime change”.
However, there are five other takeaways, all of which have downstream implications.
Wake-up call
For a start, the Iranian leadership seems to have concluded that the strategic restraint exercised over the past 3-4 years since negotiations on the nuclear issue began, is being misunderstood by the Trump team. On Sunday, Khamenei launched a vitriolic attack on US policies.
As Tehran sees it, the Trump team, which lacks experience in international diplomacy, might harbour notions that Iran’s moderation in recent years is a sign of weakness or lack of political resolve on the part of the moderate-reformist leadership of President Hassan Rouhani.
Most certainly, Tehran expects that its iron-fist display on Sunday will serve as a wake-up call to the Trump administration. This finds echo in the words of the influential Secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council Mohsen Rezayee, who is also a former IRGC commander: “After four years in office, Tillerson will come to understand Iran.”
Setting a precedent
Two, Iran has created a hugely consequential precedent. Make no mistake, Tehran will hit ISIS again, reckoning it to be “like a wild dog that we can annihilate easily along with its masters.” Of course, this will impact the overall military balance in both Syria and Iraq.
Again, if ISIS can be targeted, why not other extremist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda, some of which might be enjoying covert support from the US or its regional allies?
Quadrilateral cooperation
Three, the fact that Tehran coordinated Sunday’s missile strikes in advance with Russia, Iraq and Syria is an important signal in geopolitical terms and in regional politics. Centered around Baghdad, the quadrilateral mechanism involving these four countries has openly acknowledged that such coordination took place. It didn’t have to do that, but it did so with deliberation.
All-out rivalry
Four, against the backdrop of a series of unfriendly and provocative moves by the US against Iran in recent weeks at different levels, it is a fair assumption that Iran’s willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration on the path to a settlement in Syria is now virtually nil. Equally, it remains to be seen what follows next in Iraq after the liberation of Mosul.
Specifically, an all-out rivalry between the US and Iran can now be expected on the ground for control of the Syrian-Iraqi border and southern Syria. It will be a miracle now if the US beats Iran in the race to take control of the strategic city of Dier Ezzor, which has become an emblematic military front for the latter. Iranian statements claim that the terrorist attacks in Tehran on June 7 were masterminded and executed from the ISIS command center in Dier Ezzor.
US policy adrfit
Finally, Washington now has no option left but to accept Russian help to stabilize the “de-confliction” zones in southern Syria bordering Jordan and the Golan Heights. Yet, incredibly enough, the Pentagon chose just this moment to provoke Moscow by shooting down a Syrian jet on Sunday – albeit a few hours ahead of the Iranian missile strike.
Moscow has put the Pentagon on notice that henceforth all American aircraft and flying objects in the Syrian air space will be treated as “targets”. Coming on top of the bizarre policy somersaults over Qatar in the past week, not to mention the fake arms deal with Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration’s Middle East policy looks adrift, lacking intellectual content and diplomatic acumen.
The veteran ex-CIA officer and Brookings scholar on the Middle East Bruce Riedel pondered aloud last week how an administration so abysmally lacking in talent and diplomatic experience could cope with a first-rate crisis situation such as a war in Gaza or Lebanon.
Of course, in immediate terms, it remains to be seen how the Trump administration handles the Iran sanctions bill given the latest developments. The Iranian Majlis plans to adopt counter-measures vis-à-vis the proposed US legislation, which it regards as a blatant violation of the matrix of understanding reached under the nuclear deal of July 2015.
Qiam is a solid fuel Balistic Missile, not a cruise missile.
Hear is the deal ————Israel wants too be the bully or the man in the Middle East———-and with a wink and a nod from its best friend the United States. Yes boys and girls that was the plan————-but Iran also wants to be the bully or the man in the Middle East————–sit back and have some extra organic butter on your popcorn————-this will get very interesting!!
IS will be Trumpeter’s bite-dog to be let loose for all the evil Snakes.
The evil Snake has been growing bigger missile fangs to ward off the neocon Zionist Wahhabi .decapitation.
tit for tat.
Iran.China,Russia,North Korea and Syria should work together otherwise if they join hands with America then they are lost.America is not a good friend because of itself being bullish.Always persuing to be the global leader in everything,why?
Its always a pleasure to read Bhadrakumars article. Full of logical points and deep analysis.
The missile attack was a wise step from Iran. All the evil plotters of terrorism in the region might be nervous now. I long for the day when such missiles hit Israel.. That day will be day of freedom, day of humanity and day of justice.
To trust America is to trust the devil. A devil will be more reliable but not the USA.
That’s true.America should stay within its borders not to initiate world disorder.Thank you Iran for such a move.You are not cowards
"devastating precision" is not a useful technical description. How far in metres?
Yes, it was fake. None of the sales referred to are actual contracts. They were all proposals which have not received approval. Many of them would require Congress to appropriate funds, which they might do but might not.
Lots of devils at play in Syria… US, Russia, Saudi, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Iran… enough devils to start up a whole hell, which is exactly what they’ve done.
Sameer Bandookwala Lots of devils at play in Syria… US, Russia, Saudi, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Iran… enough devils to start up a whole hell, which is exactly what they’ve done.
Funny how a search of this story comes up with vastly different outcomes and factoids. Take-away? Lots of feather-puffing that will only serve to disrupt Iraqi airspace.
Steven Edward Rogers Thats true. As Eishehower had cautioned about the military industrial complex, today that exactly has happended. USA foreign policies are dictated by corporate interests of arms industry,bank industry which has resulted in mayhem in the world. The ideals on which USA was formed has been lost.
Oh that’s so awsome to hav the US think twice about it’s aggressive moves vis-a-vis the Middle East. The future suddenly brightens up for Syrians since Syria will unlikely be split into two due to US trying to set up camp in Syra using its mercinary Kurdish fighters and Arab terrorists.
Sameer Bandookwala what do US foreign policies have to do with the certinty that Israel would retaliate against an atack from Iran? The US does not control Israel.
Missile launches can only deliver so much. If CIA can orchestrate more attacks against the Shia populations, the regime in Tehran will come under pressure from the public who will be fed-up with its ability to keep them safe from the IS terrorists.
Unilateral power is always bad Kevin. It leads to ill motives. Bilateral power has at least given a balance to the region.