From Japan’s Shinzo Abe to China’s Xi Jinping to India’s Narendra Modi, the region is abuzz with stern leaders exerting firm control over political systems and promising forceful economic reform regimes. Strongmen are back in vogue in Asia.
Yet no one is tossing around more testosterone than Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines.
Since June 30, 2016, he’s made rape jokes, called former U.S. President Barack Obama a “son of a whore,” boasted about dropping criminals from helicopters and, of course, deputized an army of gunmen to kill thousands of alleged drug dealers and users extrajudicially.
He earns his “Duterte Harry” nickname daily and gleefully.
He earns his “Duterte Harry” nickname daily and gleefully.
All this bloodshed is bad for business. When Benigno Aquino left office almost one year ago, he bequeathed Duterte an economy on the ascendancy -– from weak link to investment-grade growth star in just six years.
Duterte’s job was clear: build on and broaden Aquino’s success in repairing the national balance sheet, promoting good governance and attacking corruption.
Instead, Duterte thinks his mandate is creating a bull market in body bags and human-rights-group rebukes.
When Standard & Poor’s warned Duterte’s policy chaos could lead to a downgrade, he yelled “so what the hell?” and “leave us, then we will start on our own” rating system. Not reassuring as these things go.
Duterte’s appeal was his muscular tenure as mayor of Davao City, which was believed to enjoy less crime, inequality and inefficiency than most other Philippine metropolises.
It’s not unlike Indians electing Modi to take his “Gujarat model” national and drain the swamp in the capital.
To be fair, only time will tell if voters get their wish. So far, though, his administration has gotten far more attention for bloodshed than reform.
Question is, might Duterte be shooting the 100 million-person nation in the proverbial foot?
Question is, might Duterte be shooting the 100 million-person nation in the proverbial foot?
There’s still time to turn things around; he does have five more years in the presidential palace. But Duterte’s priorities so far aren’t encouraging.
He must act immediately to accelerate the infrastructure push that began in earnest during the Aquino years.
To reach its potential, Manila must improve its economic hardware. From mining to manufacturing to tourism, the nation has the natural resources to match Singapore’s wealth.
Harnessing them, though, requires vastly better infrastructure and governance. Bringing down the cost of electricity alone would help the Philippines woo giant auto and technology factories.
Investing more in education and training would raise the nation’s competitive game in the age of China.
Perhaps the biggest problem is distraction. One example is the success with which ISIS has gained a foothold in the Philippines over here when Duterte’s gunman waged a drug war over there.
This, of course, could get much worse as the death toll has reached more than 300 in the fight by the military to retake control of Marawi city from ISIS-linked rebels on Duterte’s home island of Mindanao.
Separately, a military outpost in North Cotabato, also on Mindanao, was attacked this week by the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. It was beaten off, but raises concern the insurgency is spreading.
Here, Aquino deserves some blame, too. Yes, the Philippines grew faster than China for a few years there, but job growth underwhelmed.
Aquino should’ve paid more direct attention to tens of millions of people below the poverty line. It’s up to Duterte to fire up the employment engine, and now.
It’s up to Duterte to fire up the employment engine, and now.
The first step is forsaking the “Cult of GDP,” or the tendency of governments to think their job is done when gross domestic product averages 5% or more.
The Philippines has long needed to grow better, not faster. Rather than declaring martial law, Duterte must marshal deregulation through a change-averse political system to take on vested interests, particularly the power of dynastic land-owning families.
The key is highlighting where — and to whom — the lion’s share of economic benefits are going and to level the playing field.
Nothing would buttress Duterte’s reputation for omnipotence like an economic boom that captures the world’s imagination.
By making sure the Philippines remains more of a turnaround story than cautionary tale would make Dutertenomics the toast of the developing world. Talk about strength.
(William Pesek is a Tokyo-based journalist, former columnist for Barron’s and Bloomberg and author of “Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades.” Twitter: @williampesek)
There is a propaganda campaign by western media to demonise President Duterte and twist his comments out of all reasonable proportion. Do not accept all these lies and absurd views.
dont think so. the west can only speak but thats just it. who is duterte for them anyway. if he won or fail this drug war, who cares from the west. if he won or fail in the economic battlefield which, hes def’ntly lossing the west wont mind.
The west as you say isn’t just one all encompassing entity.
There is the US and then there is Europe, Australia etc etc.
And I think it is unfair and slightly paranoid even to think that they are demonizing Duterte.
The US has stuck by the Philippines and honored their commitment to long time allies despite all his outrageous mood swings and statements against them for over a year now.
This I would compare to the behavior of an ever loving parent to a beloved teenage child who is going through a turbulent, rebellious phase and is extremely honorable behave despite all that one might say about the US.
As a European I know that the mentality here is one which genuinely wishes to see stability and long term prosperity in the Philippines and it is quite clear to me that although Duterte does seem to be motivated by concern for his citizens, the guy isn’t fit to lead a country.
Tough talk, mood swings and murdering poor families is just a totally unacceptable way to lead a country and I’m sad that a nation of very kind spirited people is being led by such a crazy guy.
Leaders need to be disciplined, stable diplomats who stand steadfast and act for the longterm betterment of their people. Not crazy tough talking cowboys who have complexes about the colonial past and change their minds randomly depending on the mood of the day.
Duterte has access to alot of funds and help. Both from the west and from China and other Asian countries.
He could easily pump alot of money into infrastructure, training, modernizing and improving people’s lives, just as the guy has said in this article.
But the problem is he doesn’t know how to maintain good relationships with the people out there who could work with him to modernize and enrich the country.
If one smart, well minded business man with good diplomatic skills and a good vision for a modernized Phillipines could get elected there is so much potential for a great future.
For the Philippines to become a descent and rich democracy like Taiwan or Singapore
Well dude, sorry to disappoint you but I’m not an expat.
Nor am I a stooge as you call it.
You have a rude and unfriendly way of expressing your extreme and narrow minded ideas.
Just so you know, I’m not naive about the ways of the world and spent many years with a rebellious and extreme view about the way things are.
But steadily I managed to grow up and develop a more broad minded view of things, understanding many different perspectives. I also traveled around alot so that the countries and things I was reading about actually became real in my mind.
Now what I was telling you before is that if the Philippines is able to elect a leader who is sound in mind and action, it would be very easy for him to turn the country in to a modern, safe and prosperous country. Outside influence is always an issue in world politics but if a country adopts a mature approach to it a good balance can be found, as has been proven by many countries in this world who managed to grow up in a post colonial age.
It isn’t easy but it is possible.
If you look back in history beyond the world wars and what happened subsequently, you will see that countries have always been forming empires and vying for influence, power, trade etc. And it carried on into our modern world even.
However what’s great about today’s world is we actually could finally evolve into something else and are trying to do so.
And if all the rebellious anti this and that people such as yourself would drop that stance and start being constructive and positive, less judgemental of mankind’s journey thus far, they could become key players in creating what we all wish to achieve.
We need to drop limited, small minded and judgemental ways of being and learn from each other.
America could do with European breaks to rain in its heroic conquering and mad spending.
Asia could do with European ideas on human rights because this continent over here which you have squeezed into the box labeled bitch consists of millions of people who live in a peaceful and enlightened way alot of the time although like everywhere else it has its own problems.
Each continent, each place on earth has something good and unique to contribute to the whole.
And we need leaders with this type of vision to take us forwards.
What I’d love to see is a leader in the Philippines who adopts what is good from other countries and rejects what is bad.
And which gets down to the business of stabilizing and prospering. Just as China did. Putting its head down and putting in the work to pull its people out of poverty.
To become a country like Taiwan, stable and civilized.
The Philippines has so much potential and such wonderfully kind people all it needs is a real good leader and not this mentally unstable idiot Duterte.
I’m not saying this to defend America but out of love for the Philippines and out of a sain a stable mindset.
So America has only ever been bad to and for the Philippines that’s the way you see it?
I think there are many many people living in that very country who think otherwise.
And I don’t really see how you can put your faith in a man who murders poor people in his own country.
Why is it that Japan and Taiwan have managed to become prosperous democracies and remain strong allies with the US?
Maybe the US doesn’t actually expect countries to be its own puppets but rather to present themselves to the world in respectable and humaine ways.
Perhaps there is more good in the west than you give them credit for.
I watched a documentary last night about Polynesia.
It was very pleasant to see a quint, well organized country without poverty, war and such things.. Stable, clean and civilized just like Europe, Taiwan and Japan..
And yet the country keeps its unique cultural identity and maintains a pleasant relationship with France its ex colonizers and now good friends.
That’s what it would be great to see in the Philippines..
Because contrary to what people seem to think about America it does have good will towards its allies and it too could be embraced as a friend and used in a beneficial way to bring about peace, stability and prosperity instead of being judged and condemned by people too short sighted to see beyond their own fear and feelings of unworthiness like Duterte..
Leaders without psychosis of any kind is what we need and Duterte is not one of them.
Much better to have a square, boring, professional, kind hearted business man than a rootin tootin lunatic…
Think about it. �
It was only a matter of time before Washington unleashes Isis on Duterte.
Well said Mr. Budget. you seemed You’re well mined, smart and with best intellect understanding someonelse perspective in governance or running the country. but my question is, are you into politics? Where you elected for a position in your country or state? You are really intelligent but can you run or govern a country??? If you can then be an example rather than judging a person.
Stained spirit… That is a funny way to name your self-
I am too old to suddenly become a politician and I can never be one in the Philippines anyway.
But I don’t have to be one to see that insulting and bad mouthing other countries isn’t the way to bring peace and stability to a country as its leader.
Nor to know in my heart that murdering poor people is wrong.
If Duterte had told his long standing American allies that he wanted to try independent politics and to get a feel for politics through befriending other nations too he would have had American blessing and support to turn back to..
I understand that you think I should give the guy a chance and actually I’m not judging him personally.
I am just using my brain to see clearly what is and isn’t good for a peaceful and stable Asia.
Duterte is not a good reflection of the heart of the Filipino mentality.
More like a reflection of the dark aspects of it.
Maybe in the long run it will be good for it to have been brought into the light..
I hope so
Ah one who gets it after all ISIS was birthed in the bowels of Washington…
George Silversurfer, I am afraid you are right. The former US Ambassador to the Philippines, Goldberg, has been running covert operations against Duterte long before he was elected President.
What has saved President Duterte is unprecedented popularity, not only in the Philippines but in ASEAN. President Duterte do not follow “diplomatic protocol” and use strong language on anyone who attack the Philippines Sovereignty and democracy.
I guess US “Deep State” will unseat both President Duterte and his friend President Trump. CIA has great connections among jihadists and terrorists, not unlikely they will be used (or blamed) for an “unseating” President Duterte.
I admire President Duterte, and all the good policies he has implemented in a very short time.
Stuart Budgen The facts are clear. Duterte war on drugs has given several million Filipinos a second chance for a good life.
Duterte want to protect the environment, that is why he demand the rich mining companies to become environmentally friendly or they will be closed.
The Philippines has had problems with US interference in domestic politics and sovereignty issues. President Duterte want to keep the great friendship with the US, but do not tolerate US interfering in Filipino Sovereignty issues. President Aquino was a US puppet, ignoring crime, corruption, drugs, and terrorism.
Reports of Duhterte’s death squads are valid, pertinent and should be a warning to any potential investor. Death squads are the sign of a very stupid person. A very stupid person that should not be involved in the Philippine economy.