Warnings that North Korea could threaten the US mainland with a nuclear missile attack are exaggerated and dangerous, said Beijing-based Miha Hribernik, senior Asia analyst at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
This has generated fear of an attack among US citizens — not helped by President Donald Trump’s comments — and drummed up dangerous calls for the US to strike first, Hribernik said.
While North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-un has frequently employed confrontational rhetoric towards perceived enemies, “If Kim Jong-un decides to use the weapons pre-emptively, he is essentially guaranteeing a rapid military defeat and the end of his regime,” Hribernik said.
The North’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles serve as a deterrent against possible attack, and are part of its game of brinkmanship. The arsenal has little value in an offensive role, he said.
“The only plausible first-use scenario is Pyongyang believing that it is under imminent threat of military attack from the US. However, given the very low likelihood of a US strike – considering the catastrophic consequences to South Korea – this is an outlier scenario,” he said.
The risk consultancy said in a report published on Friday that South Korea’s newly elected president Moon Jae-in is unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough on nuclear disarmament with the North and find a lasting resolution.
“North Korea views its arsenal as the only deterrent against regime change by external force, and there are no real incentives that South Korea – or the wider international community – can offer that would persuade Kim Jong-un to disarm,” Hribernik said.
North Korea is estimated to have an army of about 1.1 million troops, but its equipment is thought to be Soviet-era and in poor condition. Its missile program is, however, progressing faster than expected, South Korea’s defense minister said earlier this week.
In an opinion piece for Asia Times, Bradley Martin, a veteran North Korea watcher, urged readers not to panic about Pyongyang.
Panic among ordinary Americans is more dangerous than the underlying geopolitical forces, he said.
“That’s because there’s an impetuous president in the White House who lives for audience ratings. Put enough pressure on him to ‘do something about North Korea’ and he might succumb to that pressure, with disastrous results,” Martin said.
In short, he argues that North Korea doesn’t yet have the wherewithal to attack the United States. Besides, the primary mission for which North Korea is building those weapons is not an attack on the United States.
North Korea only has one goal; unite the Korean peninsula. That’s the same goal that South Korea has.
USA should butt out and let the koreans to work out their differences. Stoppong the provocative large scale military exercises with close ot 400,000 troops and live ammuniation right on the borders should be a UN decree if the UN is an honest broker..
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is not yet capable to strike any US territory. Kim is boasting that he can strike anytime but the truth is their missile programs are are not yet successful until now. The US must push the unification of Korean peninsula through dialogue between them. If peaceful negotiation failed his own military will make drastic move against Kim.
The hardest part in normalization process as what they’ve agreed in the "six party talks " was over. Its now the PR jobs to talks about good and pacifying things on both sides.
Talk is cheap I want see that day when us starting Dem own end it’s afgan lyba sits but not North korea u think they stupid
Why on earth American thinking they are superior to the other nation .don’t underestimate n .Korea it will be a dark chapter in history of mankind.
South Korea ,Japanese and Chinese when war break oo with n.Korea u will suffer the consequence and Japanese when did u for get Hiroshima
And how do you know this? Do you have the slightest idea what devastation nuclear weapons are capable of? This a different ball game and not one of speculation. Another world war is actually much closer than most would think.
Solution is simple withdraw from Peninsula Korea. The US did the same in Vietnam. It is a disputer between North and South and no super power should interfere. South Korea has declared they can live with the existence of People’s Republic of Korea. So let those two solve themselves. Actually this was one of the issues of Trump’s campaign. Sorry this guy is not stable.
Katungi Moses the dog that bark too much do not bite.