The risk of China’s H-shares as measured by the cost of options on the large-cap China ETF has plunged to a record low. Implied volatility on “China VIX” options (traded as VXFXI on the CBOE) stands at just 15%, the lowest since options began trading in 2011. The spread between China ETF volatility and VIX has also narrowed to the lowest on record.
There’s a lot less to worry about in China. The government is slowly but surely taking measures to reduce risk in the financial system. Growth has come in at above expectations, and objective measures of economic activity (electricity production, railway freight, night-time illumination and so forth) validate the government’s growth data. Trade in Asia is growing. And China and the United States appear to have no interest in a trade war.