Recent American experience with regime change has been starkly unsuccessful.
The Bush administration’s mismanagement, compounded by President Obama’s decision to abandon the country, left Iraq vulnerable to ISIS and Iran.
The Obama administration’s foolish sponsorship of the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt ousted longtime ally Hosni Mubarak, leading to upheaval and a military-led government.
The overthrow of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi led to a vacuum of governance and the emergence of militias – some of which are closely connected to al Qaeda – and the emergence of an ISIS base that was removed only with great difficulty.
In each case, the US eliminated an “unacceptable” ruler without a viable candidate or organization to take the reins. In each case, the result was chaos. Chaos in nuclear-capable North Korea would be a catastrophe.
The United States does not lack the means to oust North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un, and indeed can remove many of Kim’s key backers and most of Pyongyang.
There are “kill teams,” such as Seal Team 6, which reportedly is training for just this mission. There are drones that can penetrate North Korea’s airspace and, when Kim makes a public appearance, blast him with a Hellfire missile, as the US has done to terrorists from al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban.
There is the F-22, a stealth platform that could destroy the Presidential palace and other government buildings.
The US has planes that can jam radio and telephone communications, and tools to take over TV and radio broadcasting, which, if used effectively, would create confusion and seemingly tell the remaining Korean leaders they have no choice but to cooperate or be eliminated.
The question is whether the decapitation of the North Korean regime would accomplish the desired American end – a manageable, meaning de-nuclearized, North Korea.
Regime change has not been the US policy in North Korea and President Trump has said it is not his policy either. However, the permissive approach pursued over the last 20 years is a demonstrated failure.
Negotiating “deals,” first with Kim Il-sung, then Kim Jong-Il and then with Kim Jong-Un, resulted in repression at home and illicit trade with Asia and Europe that allowed North Korea to increase its nuclear, chemical weapons, and missile programs by importing parts and technology.
It also allowed North Korea and Iran to cooperate on missiles and nuclear weapons, later adding Syria where the three were involved in building a replica of the Yongbyon reactor at al-Kibar, subsequently destroyed by the Israeli Air force.
With even more afoot as the North Korean regime prepares for its sixth test of a potentially miniaturized nuclear weapon suitable for missiles, perhaps it is time to reconsider the no regime change policy.
North Korea is a highly stratified place: there is a military-oriented elite that runs the country, and then there is everyone else who, except for the families of the favored in Pyongyang, are suppressed and impoverished.
There is very little exposure of either of these broadly defined groups to the outside world. Everything revolves around Kim and his family.
And, just as they know little about the outside world, the outside world knows little about the regime and any possible patterns or plans for succession – even clandestine ones – or people in the ruling clique who might be more amenable to outside influence.
If the US jumped in now with a military operation, it could well decapitate the regime, but we could very well end up with people just as nasty, just as aggressive, just as impervious to outside reason as Kim.
Exchanging the lunatic we now have for another one, even angrier and justifiably more paranoid, would leave the US, South Korea, Japan – even China – facing a real risk of nuclear conflict.
The regime in North Korea may be paranoid in some respects, but it does know it has enemies, and it does have a ruthless and effective counterintelligence apparatus.
Various Chinese attempts to remove Kim have resulted in a series of executions – including at least one execution of military officers reportedly using anti-aircraft guns.
As we know now, Kim Jong Un successfully assassinated his half brother in Malaysia last February 13 with the nerve agent VX, further testimony – if it were needed – to the regime’s ruthlessness.
In a new book, Stop North Korea!: A Radical New Approach to the North Korea Standoff, Shepherd Iverson of Inha University in Seoul proposes bribing North Korean civilian and military leaders to abandon Kim through a “Reunification Investment Fund” of $175 billion.
The plan directly addresses China’s concern that the collapse of the North would result in millions of refugees flooding China – a concern South Korea shares.
And South Korea’s new government has taken a strong position on reconciliation and/or reunification with the North rather than belligerence, openly regretting the installation of US THAAD missiles.
But even if the North and South discuss investment/reunification – which South Korea tries to organize into bribes along the lines of Iverson’s book – it is unlikely that bribe-takers in the North will survive long. But there is one other group of potential interlocutors.
A great many North Koreans have defected to the South, some of whom might be organized into a government in exile.
This would put pressure on the North, which hasn’t previously faced the possibility of organized opposition outside the country.
And a government in exile with decent funding and the possibility of using the reunification fund to mitigate the cost of necessary investments in food and industry could encourage military and political officials in Pyongyang.
It meets some of the interests of the new Korean government, and would make clear to China that the US seeks regime change that will not leave behind either chaos or a nuclear North Korea.
For 20 or more years the US has pandered to the North Korean regime and created an unholy mess with missile and nuclear proliferation threatening peace and stability not only in the Asia Pacific region but also far beyond.
Reversing that is all-important, but reversing it without planning for “the day after” would only exacerbate the problem. We have to do better.
Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen co-authored this article. Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center and has more than 30 years experience as a defense policy analyst.
The problem of this world is not Yankees, there are many greedy and power greed leaders in this world today, some want to die in power and other want to repeat presidential position, the problem of this world inshot is corruption, don’t blame American for other countries bad Governance, as for NK everything has end.
Very true,, US must stop policing and dictating the world.. let the Koreans solve their differences with no foreigners mingling. Denuclearization must start with them.. Why must they have Nukes and prohibit other countries to have? From SA
North Korean leaders must love their people first. So removing Kim must be the first option coz Kim only love himself. NK military must do the right thing for the sake of their suffering citizens. First, they need to convince NK officials in its embassy around the world to study the real situation in Nk and offer them with development aids when the present regime was replaced by true Democratic government.
quote: "Various Chinese attempts to remove Kim have resulted in a series of executions – including at least one execution of military officers reportedly using anti-aircraft guns."
Mr. Bryen, what’s your evidence / basis for calling them (1) attempts to remove Kim, and (2) Chinese attempts????? You are old enough (but not too old to be senile) to understand that you are supposed to have credible evidence before making such claims, right? Without any evidence to support your claims will make them mere speculations, and you should have clearly said so. Even then, you are supposed to provide a reasonable basis for the speculations.
quote: "As we know now, Kim Jong Un successfully assassinated his half brother in Malaysia last February 13 with the nerve agent VX, further testimony – if it were needed – to the regime’s ruthlessness."
Again, Mr. Bryen, who is this "we" you are referring to? We (Asia Times readers) have not seen a single piece of evidence from YOU to prove that Kim Jong Un did it. On the contrary, your sheer lack of credibility renders your claim to have the opposite effect – I for one believe it’s anyone but Kim (perhaps it’s South Korea or the CIA or the Mossad or a combination of the three).
As insightfull as a piece from Fox News.
The US has not talked to Kim #3 since he came to power.
The US had an agreement with NK in the 90’s until brainic duo of Bush-Chaney singled out NK with Axis of Evil. Just before they attacked Iraq for having WMD’s.
Bush’s message was clear. More so when in 2003 Gadaffi gave up his WMD program to make peace only to attacked by NATO a few years later. Good Lesson learned by NK.
quote: "Recent American experience with regime change has been starkly unsuccessful."
Are you talking about regime change in America or outside America?
If it’s the latter, then the US has been very successful – Libya (leader murdered, nation in chaos, as planned); Sudan (split in two, civil war followed, nation in chaos, as planned); Iraq (leader murdered, US military bases mushroomed, weak government installed, and nation in chaos, as planned); Afghanistan (government replaced, US military bases mushroomed, weak government installed, opium production skyrocketed, civil war no end in sight, nation in chaos, as planned); Brazil (leader impeached by a bought and corrupt Congress; US puppet installed, nation in chaos, as planned); Argentina (same as Brazil, see above) …
However, regime change in the US has utterly and repeatedly failed – the country is still being run by a criminal cabal (Wall Street, the MIC, the Oil Cartel …) through the hands of a puppet government.
I don’t have the time to give a line by line rebuttal of Stephen Bryen’s article, which is a collection of false claims, distortions, misinformation, and propaganda, AS USUAL.
Hahaha this is the craziest thing I have read this year. "If you know the enemy and you know your self, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Sun Tzu", The Art of War . What is known about NK? if the writer thinks the they NK are seated on their hands waiting to be attacked, that is one terrible assumption that will have devastating consequences that spill over to SK, Russia and possibly China and most probably USA. Not much was known about the PLA, but now, images and videos are now appearing in social media – its not by mistake!
North Korea does needs Kim Jong Un or his double if it wants to achieve great goals.
Today people are laughing at libya for being manipulated by Obama.
The way further is to remove all American soldiers from the Korean Peninsula. The Korean Peninsula do not need American soldiers in their soil. Not only they prevent peace but they are also murderers and rapists for having murdered and raped many South Korean girls.
Or a simpler solutoon. Yankees butt out of Korean Pennisula affairs. Between SK, NK, a much less meddlesome China and Russia, NorthEast Asians are perfectly capable of handling the situation themselves. No need for more cowboys rides in rides out and leave a mess.
There’s no need for a government in exile for NK. They will either be too "puppety" to be of any real value and in the strange case they can actually become strong, doubt even SK will fancy the creation of such a new Korean polity. There’s also the question of who will be the main sponsor. SK? Go back to what I just said. US? Should Koreans hand over even more keys to their bedrooms to the cowboys?
On a more serious note, US should focus back home and secure its own balance between free liberalism and conservative ideology. US need to give up on its dominance on affairs in every hemisphere and come into understanding with other major powers and outsource BASIC responsibilities to them isntead of taking on everything itself, exhausts itself and still got nothing resolved. Other powers are rising and world is turning into a multipolar balance of power setup. US have many values that are valuable in such a setup to keep some forces in other countries in check for humanity’s sake, but I think instead of properly securing those values US is wasting its energy on dominance instead, and that includes turning those values into a weapon for ideaological dominance (in terms of real effect, not intention). It will not end good.