Shall I do that again? North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reacts during a test launch. Photo: Reuters

Tensions have once again flared on the Korean peninsula, but the calculus behind the US tradition of military inaction in the region has not changed. There is an extremely low probability we will see a move by the US that carries such a tremendously high risk for our close ally South Korea, as use of military force surely would.

Much more likely, is that the US and South Korea will follow through with their announcement Monday that new sanctions will be placed on the rogue state to the North, should they carry out additional nuclear or long-range missile tests.