China produced 808 million tonnes of steel last year, while the US produced only 79 million. Up until now, around 90% of Chinese mill output has been absorbed in the domestic market.
But, as the Financial Times reports, infrastructure and property construction in China will inevitably wane, which leaves only one place for their steel to go: abroad. Every increase of 1% in China’s steel exports is equivalent to the entire export market for US steel mills.
Anti-dumping cases brought against Chinese steel by the US, Europe and Mexico have already been piling up. With a new explosion of exports on the horizon, it looks like the fight is just getting started.