A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California. Photo: Reuters, Lucy Nicholson
A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California. Photo: Reuters, Lucy Nicholson

Nomura analysts see upside risks on long-term oil prices, as forecasts see oil supply falling off after 2020. A study of oil production projects by the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that supply will keep pace with demand in the near-term, but US shale production is likely to wind down three years from now. Nomura maintains average Brent crude price forecasts for this year and next at US$60/bbl and US$70/bbl respectively.