The Telegraph newspaper in London carried a sensational interview in its March 5 edition with “a senior Pakistani army source” who claimed the Afghan situation is a “total mess” and the West now faced “losing control.”
The military official warned that there might be a Syria-like intervention by Russia, using the justification of an Islamic threat to Central Asia, Moscow’s strategic backyard.
He disclosed that in recent weeks top brass in the northern Pakistani city of Rawalpindi held discussions with US Defense Secretary James Mattis and the US commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson.
“A stalemate is still a win for the Taliban,” Nicholson is said to have warned. “We have told General Mattis that Afghanistan is slipping out of control and that if things are not put right, America will have a huge crisis on its hands. Da’ish [ISIS] is also developing there, and if they leave Syria and Iraq, the next place for them to gather in is Afghanistan.”
In the Pakistani assessment, only about 20,000 personnel from the 350,000-strong Afghan army are “capable of combat missions.” He added: “They also have about 1,000 generals, most of whom are appointed because of their tribal affiliations rather than on merit. The problem is that you can’t teach a donkey to gallop.”
Indeed, the interview appears when the Afghan security situation is touching a crisis point, the Afghan government is crumbling and the Trump administration hasn’t revealed its strategy.
The Pakistani source implied that the stalemate in the Afghan conflict is an argument for accommodating the Taliban so the specter of the ISIS threat can be effectively countered.
Russian intervention would likely mean air support for allied forces fighting on the ground. No Kremlin leader will ever again put “boots on the ground” in Afghanistan.
In Syria, Russia has capable regional allies – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and Hezbollah – who take the brunt of ground combat. But in Afghanistan, Russia has no regional ally willing and able to do the heavy lifting.
The Taliban remains blacklisted as a criminal organization under a Russian Supreme Court ruling in 2003, and it is a criminal offense for the government to cooperate with the group.
Whether the present communication channels between Moscow and the Taliban morph into common interests will depend largely on the future trajectory of Russian-American relations. Moscow’s preferred choice has been to work with the US (and Nato) to eliminate terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
If a new cold war develops, Moscow may challenge US policies, including in Afghanistan. The Syrian conflict may become the flash point.
Moscow remains cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration will cooperate with Russia on Syria, provided the White House gets political support in Washington to act independently.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent regional tour of the frontline states of Central Asia sought to convey that Russian military posturing in the region is in standby mode.
The big question remains: What is the Pakistani motivation in raising the prospect of the Russian bear prowling the Hindu Kush? The short answer is: Pakistani generals want to engage with Trump’s generals proactively when the US Afghan strategy is about to be finalized.
The salience of Nicholson’s recent testimony at the US Armed Services Committee has been that the Pentagon regards Russia warily. The general repeatedly claimed that Russia is “legitimizing” the Taliban with a view to undermining the US.
To be sure, the senior military source in Pakistan who spoke to the Telegraph played on these fears.
For Pakistan, it pays to stir up geopolitical rivalries in Afghanistan in order to revive its role as America’s key non-Nato ally during the George W Bush era — that is, until President Barack Obama spoiled the party.
Pakistan has come closer than ever to realizing its ambitions of putting the Taliban in power in Afghanistan. It senses that Nicholson’s frank admission that the Afghan conflict has reached a stalemate carries a sense of helplessness.
On the other hand, Pakistani generals also know that Trump — who recently said the US$6 trillion the US squandered in Middle Eastern wars could have rebuilt America twice — will never opt for an open-ended Afghan war.
Their game plan, therefore, is to keep the US military in Afghanistan until Kabul becomes low-hanging fruit for the Taliban to pluck. Of course, limited US presence in Afghanistan can be useful when Pakistan-Afghan relations are in crisis.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center in Washington wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine last week: “Fortunately, all-out [Pakistan-Afghanistan] war is unlikely. Afghanistan’s army is in no position to take on its superior Pakistani counterpart … However, a limited conflict — additional cross-border shelling from Pakistan coupled with possible retaliatory strikes from Afghanistan’s highly disciplined Special Forces — is highly likely.”
The respected South Asia scholar forecast that in such a scenario, Kabul may call on New Delhi, and, indeed, invoke the defense pact with Washington as well.
Given the “alarming prospect of an escalation in cross-border tensions involving three countries in a nuclear-armed region housing nearly 9,000 US troops,” Kugelman visualized that the United States may have to step in as a “formal mediator” in the region.
Trump’s generals should be wary of being led down the garden path. The threat of ISIS, the Russian bear, et al, is just foreplay to get them going.
Pak generals/diplomats are extremely adept at playing a weak hand thanks to their nukes and gullible US cold warriors. Let them can mooch off China for a while instead.
If only all big powers would come to their senses and treat Pakistan like the pariah it should be.
biased article by an Indian with Indian mond set
Someone reeks of curry
do we now need opinion from cow piss drinkers… haha
MKB; thanks for an interesting and insightful article.
This indian diplo jerk used to bark on iran tree. Wasted op-ed
The key to peace in Afghanistan is a representative government.
An interesting analysis by Mr Bhadrakumar , although most articles are to the point and very comprehensive by the retired Indian diplomat. Somehow the bias or being vary of the Pakistani military is showing, without a resonant explanation of hysterical ideas of regional conflict
If you have an opinion, express it in a cilivized manner. Shouting meaningless obscene insults does not say much.
Great news for the first time looks like India is concerned. Modi Ji’s efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally it appears are finished. Pakistan has deep ties with China and Iran two of its neighbors and Russia is already cozying up. Historically, in US Republican administration have always done good for Pakistan just that Trump is an impulsive personality but good thing for Pakistan’s point of view is he is surrounded by Generals and Generals know how to understand and get along with each other( Pakistani Generals). Besides it is about time for India to butt of out of Afghanistan. India has nothing in common with Afghanis. Religiously or culturally. Bharakumar Ji is right it is not good sign for India. Way to go Pakistan. Time for Modi to wake up. Extremism never pays. Is it not time for Pakistanis and Indians to reach out across Wagah and shake hands and not be exploited by big powers, and let Kashmiris live their life however they want to live ?
In the early years of the century I was flying to UK via Schiphol. I had several hour layover there and decided to visit Den Haag. Found myself a little short of time for the journey back to the airport so I took a taxi. The driver was an Afghani refugee. He gave me his potted Afghani history of the past 25 years. "The mujahideen, assisted by CIA, defeated the Russian invaders. People were ecstatic and united at first, but soon three competing factions evolved, financed and armed by Russia, the US and Pakistan. Everybody had guns then. I escaped to Netherlands with my daughter, because it became too dangerous in Afghanistan. Then came the Taliban. They were Saudi and Pakistani fighters, headed by Osama bin Laden and funded by the USA. Now the US has come to fight the Taliban." Round it goes.
LOL… what nonsense. Pakistan is just trying to tell the USA that Afghanistan was providing shelter to TTP terrorists against Pakistan but now that TTP has pledged its alliance with ISIS ! So what the point of Pakistan is that you better eliminate TTP from Afghanistan or else Russia will because ISIS is an enemy of this region if not the world and unfortunately Afghanistan is their base camp like always !
Afghanistan is the mother of terrorists and India is providing money to those terrorists like a good father !
lol, pot (pakistani) calling the kettle (indian) black. both are as bad as each other.
fall comes after pride. now that you are proud, your fall is assured by your arrogant comments.
not sure bro,ithought it was very even handed.
except everyone wants to seced from pakistan. pakistan will be a skeleton territory of islamabad. baluchs, pashtuns, kashmiris want to exit from this backward state.
see a psychologist & psychiatrist you disillusioned & sorry excuse for ahuman being.
is this the same ttp that pakistan kicked out from swat valley & surrounding areas. pakistan couldn’t deal with them when they were on pakisatni soil, do you think you can deal with them now criss-crossing the durand line. incompetent pakistanis, what else is new.
very good article mkb. could you please explore the role of china in turning a blind eye to the adventures of the pakistani army and isi in afghanistan and the wider region. also can you examine the new role being played by gulf arabs in the afghanistan region, do they still have their bandwagon attached to the taliban strict sunni, slose to salafi doctrines.
You should search Youtube for Arab Muslims drinking Camel Urine and eating their dung as prescribed by Koran. No kidding, its all there for you to see and savour…Enjoy Camel Cola and be a true muslim…
A salient angle of this article may be a hope or desire of Ambassador Bhadrakumar when he writes….. "The respected South Asia scholar forecast that in such a scenario, Kabul may call on New Delhi, and, indeed, invoke the defense pact with Washington as well."……but even if this happens…….. then what???…
Ambassador Bhadrakumar judgment seems quite right when he writes……"Moscow’s preferred choice has been to work with the US (and Nato) to eliminate terrorist groups in Afghanistan."…..
Pakistan can contribute by securing Pak/Afghan border firmly.
Hopefully time has arrived for the "PEACE" in this region.
Ambassador Bhadrakumar must be knowing very well that…….. India can’t defeat geography as Pakistan also learnt in East Pakistan/Bangladesh.
Far-fetched, but an interesting take.
Pakistan’s economic, military and geopolitical survival strategies should be a case study for Managers at all levels. Even though I doubt its sustainability, I am amazed so far.