Source: Bloomberg

The Treasury market is sagging, with the 10-year yield up 12 basis points in the past week to match its post-election high of 2.6%. I suspect that the market fears a blowout employment number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow morning.  The ADP private payroll number for February came in at 298,000 on the back of a big upward revision for January. That’s probably due to a revival of small business optimism. In recent months ADP and BLS have been closely correlated, which means that ADP is a better predictor of the BLS payroll number than it used to be. Consensus for the BLS print is just 200,000. The Treasury market may anticipate a bigger number than the economists who are polled for the consensus survey.