Source: Bloomberg

If oil prices hold steady around present levels, German consumer price inflation should fall to about 1.3% in December from 2% last month. Year-on-year change in the German consumer price index follows YOY change in the oil price. If oil doesn’t move much, the inflation rate should fall. That’s a point of great political importance as Germany gears up for national elections in September. If inflation were to stay around the 2% mark, German patience with the European Central Bank’s negative interest rates would disappear. If inflation falls, Germany will give the ECB a longer leash.

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