“We cannot stop China from doing its thing. Even the Americans were not able to stop them,” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte remarked on March 19 amid growing concerns over Beijing’s plan to build structures on the contested Scarborough Shoal, which lies just over 100 nautical miles from Philippine mainland in the South China Sea.
Days earlier, Chinese news outlets reported that Xiao Jie, China’s Communist Party secretary of Sansha City, the prefecture that covers the Paracel island chain but also extends to the Scarborough Shoal, announced that China will soon build an “environmental monitoring station” on the disputed shoal.
The Filipino president’s remarks immediately provoked a flurry of criticism from leading political figures, including Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, who called upon the president to refrain from making defeatist statements. He suggested instead for Duterte to assert diplomatic pressure on Beijing, as well as threaten to activate the Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States if necessary.
The Philippine Senate, a largely rubber stamp institution nowadays where Duterte enjoys supermajority support, also considered a resolution to pressure the president to take a tougher stance on the Scarborough Shoal issue.
Duterte’s statement also ran counter to prevailing sentiments in the Philippine security establishment, which continues to view China’s moves in the South China Sea as a major threat. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has in recent months been among the most vocal critics of China’s maritime assertiveness.
Earlier he described any Chinese construction activity in the Scarborough Shoal as “very, very disturbing” and completely “unacceptable”, especially given its proximity to Philippine bases in Subic and Clark, the site of America’s largest military facilities in the region during the Cold War. In December, China captured a US underwater drone operating in the contested area (see map).
While Duterte has consistently questioned America’s reliability as an ally, Lorenzana has openly acknowledged that the US’ presence has been instrumental in preventing China’s full-fledged occupation of the Scarborough Shoal. For Lorenzana and leading military officials, China is a revisionist power bent on dominating the maritime area, while the US is the country’s best insurance policy in case of a conflict.
Dutetre’s defense officials have made it clear in their public statements that they mistrust China and prefer to maintain robust military cooperation with the US. Given the military’s decisive role in Philippine politics, even a highly popular and strong-willed leader like Duterte can not afford to ignore his generals’ concerns.
As an article in a Chinese language People’s Liberation Army (PLA) magazine revealed earlier this month, the establishment of seemingly innocuous facilities serve the dual purpose of, first, strengthening China’s claim over contested land features and maritime resources, and, second, conceal the militaristic dimension of China’s expanding footprint in the disputed waters.
In recent years, China has deployed this strategy quite effectively in the contested Spratly and Paracel chain of islands. It started by discussing the establishment of marine research facilities, lighthouses, and tourist resorts on disputed shoals and features.
Since 2013, China has gradually established a sprawling network of airstrips and military facilities equipped with state-of-the-art weapon systems which give it the requisite capabilities to progressively restrict freedom of navigation and overflight for other claimant countries.
Beijing has since spun the controversial activities as part of broader efforts to provide international public goods such as safe havens and protection for fishermen stranded in high seas. Satellite images, however, reveal a different picture.
Since 2013, China has gradually established a sprawling network of airstrips and military facilities equipped with state-of-the-art weapon systems which give it the requisite capabilities to progressively restrict freedom of navigation and overflight for other claimant countries.
The strategic upshot, the leaked PLA article says, is to make sure other claimants are “Intimidated by the projects” and thus “neighboring countries are unlikely to provoke any military conflict or escalate it into a war because they are too poorly prepared.”
The significance of the Scarborough Shoal is that it is the missing piece in the PLA’s envisioned ‘strategic triangle’ – covering the Paracels, Spratlys, and Scarborough Shoal – that will allow China to impose an exclusion zone across the South China Sea and restrict or deny access to major naval powers such as America and Japan if and when necessary.
Sensing a backlash in the Philippines, China’s Foreign Ministry vigorously denied reports, which were later mysteriously deleted, of any Chinese construction plan in the contested shoal. To mollify the highly critical Filipino public and security establishment, the Chinese government reiterated how it “cherish[es] the good momentum of the bilateral relationship [with Manila] and will be committed to pushing forward the sound, steady and rapid growth of the relationship.”
China is playing a dual game with the Philippines. That includes an aggressive charm offensive towards the Philippines, hoping to win Manila over by offering huge economic incentives. In recent weeks two senior Chinese officials, Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, who discussed the creation of a joint industrial park in the Philippines, and Vice Premier Wang Yang, who dangled a US$6 billion investment package, visited the Philippines.
China has found a sympathetic and pragmatic ally in Duterte, who has repeatedly expressed his appreciation for China’s “sincerity” and “loving” the Philippines. Downplaying concerns over the Scarborough Shoal developments, Duterte recently said: “So what do you want me to do? Declare war against China? I can but we’ll lose all our military and policemen tomorrow, and we are a destroyed nation.”
By painting his critics as recklessly hawkish, Duterte is eager to defend his increasingly cozy relationship with the Asian powerhouse. But by brushing aside potential game-changing strategic developments, he risks alienating his own military, a vital constituency for his regime’s stability.
Perhaps the generals and Heydarian can go to war with China.
Ha! Ha! Good joke, those useless loudmouth cowards on the CIA payroll.
And together with that fail Judge "Crap"io. He is trying to confuse the Filipino public on EEZ sovereignty and territorial sovereignty by conflating the two.
Duterte of the Phillipine is a very courageous President and is looking for alternative to war because no country in S.E Asia would be committed to fight China as they currently are. The U.S is not committed to any such confrontation with China, which as defied the international court ruling. Pres. Trump just got 38 patents approved by China. This new Trump’s money opportunity will repeat former U.S Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s China policy! S.E Asia has seen how the Viet-American War was fought and won. "Money is God" is the familiar principle in ….
Considering the proximity of Scarbourogh from China, Beijing cannot also afford to declare war against the Philippines. It’s cheaper for the Philippines to send Ships to this shoal compare to China, thus the suggestion to send Navy or Coastguard Ships to blockage or ward-off the chinese should be considered. This could be done after a storm when the Chinese ships seeks shelter elsewhere.
No need to declare war. Just do as they had announced, to start building artificial island on Scarborough Shoal. The cost is very low compare to national pride and prestige!!! The Europeans did for 300 years. Today, we are seeing the end results of those 300 years of European atrosities!!!
What ?? Do you mean Vietnam cannot fight Red China??
The only nation that can stand against China aside from Vietnam is the brave and powerful Indian army.
lolz! Vietnam is just a barking dog, nothing else.
@Vids P Debulgado China’s navy is already there.
Rodolfo Cervatos Correct. Vietnman cannot. It just barks.
Peter Calera He was just telling the truth.
Perhaps you should go to china and start licking every chinese ass you can find. Dont forget to bring duterte with you,
Jeff Gose That’s what you love doing, not me.
Jeff Gose Hahahaha nice burn!
Avery Solco War? no other diplomatic channels? Are Dutertards really that dense and stupid? HAHAHAHA
Avery Solco You have the audacity to call Vietnam "barking dogs" while your president cannot even defend the Philippine territories. Lol. Your president is the real pussy here. HAHAHA!
Jeff Gose forget arguing with this stupid idiot. Look at him, he’s a stupid CHINK! HAHAHAHA!
Bautista Mark you nailed it!
Avery Solco, it is better to bark than to be shivering with fear and silence and just hide your tail in between your legs. Please don’t get infliluence on what you hear from your president, use you analytical intelligence, if you have it.
Perhaps you can change your citizenship to Chinese instead… and BTW, your idol will never be VP of the Philippines…
Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines doesn’t have the capability to resist the power house china. I think it’s time for Philippine goverment to ask China for a clear view or else needs a UN soldiers to protect the area. Mr. president there’s no problem to change plan and agenda as long
it will be decided by your team.
Diplomatic pressure hindi Giyera brod
If Vietnam and Indonesia stood up bravely to Chinese agression, why can’t we??
The Philippines needs land based anti-ship missiles. These Missiles are cheaper to maintain than any ships or planes. You will need to buy some and build some locally if you can get technical help from your real friends like Korea, Japan or the US. Never trust the f**king commie Ghinese.
Heydarian has long offered his backside to theSIS and it was welcomed heartily….
Rodolfo Cervatos let’s see Cervantes and Hwydarian fight at all…
Pacita Yusay Rivilla ….Because we got stupid and Coward President….When U.S. forces present in the Philippines, not even a shadow of Chinese navy ships show’s up near the Philippine territory….Now they’re peeing 200 miles or less off the Philippines Coast.
Pacita Yusay Rivilla You should be happy that your president Duterte stood up to USA and regain the dignity and honor of the Filipinos.
Bautista Mark It was the general’s and Heydarian’s idea for the Philippines to go to war, so let those generals and Heydarian go to war and perhaps you want to join too! BTW, I am Filipino.
Dick Trese What diplomatic pressure? The same failed strategy used by Noytard?
You mean that USA has already surrendered?
Pacita Yusay Rivilla They did not! They cannot!
Bautista Mark So, Mark, what are you? American of Vietnamese pretending ot be Filipino?
Vietnam just barks, that’s all it did!
Watch your language and brush out the filth from your shitty mouth
Bautista Romeo It is better not to bark. It is better to find an amicable way. One that would be acceptable to both countries and gain from it. Look what happened to Vietnam’s economy? It’s in tatters!
China and Russia will just veto any UN resolution.
Ah! So your real intention is to sell your junk to the PH. And those are useless, BTW.
Yes, he has. I would be very surprised if he isn’t on their payroll yet.
President Duterte did defuse the tense South China Sea (SCS) conflict by agreeing to disagree with the Chinese. The Chinese in return gave the Philippines trade, tourism, and investments. The US was fuming because they wanted to have a conflict.
Anyway, President Duterte must manage the relations with the US and China carefully and the SCS issue. There are some poorly concealed covert actions to get him out of office. Political opponents, drug syndicates, terrorists, and the USA; is not too happy.
In my point of view, President Duterte has done an excellent job, and he has not been afraid to provoke people to keep his election promises to the Filipino people.
Robert Jansen And you are hidding behind an American name! LOLZ!
Avery Solco Never..
Avery Solco Useless, my missiles don’t miss…