More than a dozen years ago, India began to explore the possibility of expanding and upgrading the Iranian port of Chabahar.
This was motivated by a variety of aims, including the possible establishment of a gateway to the vast mineral resources of Afghanistan and the creation of a suitable facility to handle higher-volume Iranian natural gas exports to India.
A 120-mile road – an offshoot of the main road which links Kandahar to Herat – was built from Delaram, in the Nimruz province of Afghanistan, to Zaranj, on the northern Iranan border, in anticipation of an expansion of Chabahar.
That road was designed to meet Iran’s new connecting road from Zaranj down to Chabahar. India paid a very high cost to complete it, both in terms of dollars spent and men killed by the Taliban: more than 100 construction workers paid with their lives. Besides the road, India also signed a bilateral agreement with Iran to create a rail link from Chabahar to Zahedan, on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.
Last year, Afghanistan, Iran and India signed an agreement to transform Chabahar into a sprawling, modernized port facility. Now, Chabahar serves as an unlikely litmus test. Despite their optimism and expressed desire to see this project come to fruition, the three countries find themselves at odds with the often vocal and aggressive posturing of US President Donald Trump when it comes to Iran in general. As a result of this attitude from the White House and persistent bureaucratic inertia, the timetable for any upgrades to Chabahar’s facilities had seemed to be slipping. In mid-February, however, the Afghan Consul General in India, Mohammed Aman Amin, told a group of reporters assembled at a training session for Afghan customs personnel, in Nagpur, India, that the port was expected to open for business this month.
Will it, then, open as Amin indicated, with ships initiating services to and from Afghanistan? That remains to be seen. While his overt optimism does warrant scrutiny, the wheels are turning – just not as fast as the participating parties want them to be.
“India has engaged in a very delicate balancing act as it has attempted to maintain good relations with Iran,” says Sumit Ganguly, Professor of Political Science at Indiana University at Bloomington, who points out that the US administrations of George W Bush and Barack Obama also presented India with challenges. “Chabahar is seen by India as a way to checkmate the Chinese.”
He adds: “The Trump Administration may discover that any unilateral actions undertaken here to squeeze India over its growing ties with Iran may end up being more than counterproductive. They could easily backfire.”
US Army General John Nicholson, who commands US combat operations in Afghanistan, told a US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on February 9 that he welcomes the Chabahar project and that it will offer Afghanistan a viable and economic alternative to shipping all its goods via Pakistan. Gen Nicholson’s statement does not appear to fit neatly with President Trump’s current game plan, but other US generals have expressed viewpoints recently which do not always concur with the commander-in-chief’s.
“Iranian-Indian-Afghan cooperation over the Chabahar Port presents great economic potential. With over US$2 billion development aid executed since 2002, and another US$1 billion pledged in 2016, India’s significant investments in Afghan infrastructure, engineering, training, and humanitarian issues will help develop Afghan human capital and long-term stability,” said Gen Nicholson.
His testimony also included comments regarding increased Russian support over the past year for the Taliban, which will continue its attempts to block any efforts by India to expand its presence in Afghanistan. This news of Russia’s role might serve to temper President Trump’s inclination to speak against the Chalabar project.
“India has lots of anxiety about Russia’s recent moves with the Taliban. In addition, Gen Nicholson wants India to ramp up its support for Afghan security forces. The dispatch of four attack helicopters to Kabul by India recently was largely symbolic in nature,” says Ganguly.
More importantly, President Trump may need to show increased sensitivity in his dealings with India anyway after two shooting incidents in the US in the past few weeks involving hate crimes aimed at US citizens of Indian and Sikh descent.
Read:China-Pakistan corridor the start of a new regional ‘great game’
US officials were already reconsidering the plan by defense contractors Boeing and Lockheed Martin to open an F-16 fighter production line in India, as a way of stemming the outflow of US jobs. In response, India could, among other things – according to Ganguly – turn to the Eurofighter consortium or the Swedes, for example, as suppliers of its aircraft.
Having the South Asia desk at the US State Department sit vacant pending the appointment of a new Assistant or Under Secretary of State only adds to the uncertainty and confusion in New Delhi.
“We have not seen a policy paper (from President Trump’s foreign policy team). And the only thing we have seen is Gen Nicholson’s recent testimony,” says Ganguly.
That said, Ganguly notes that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is already “tired of Pakistan’s support for any number of terrorist groups” and that attitude dovetails with the Trump administration’s avid support for stronger counter-terrorism measures across the board both in this region and elsewhere.
Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place too. It is seen as an investor in and perhaps construction services provider for much of the infrastructure at Chabahar. Ships of 100,000 tons can access the port now, but improvements will allow ships more than twice that size to use it. India has stepped up and is poised to contribute a substantial investment – over US$500 million – both in the form of a US$150 million line of credit for port facility improvements to enable two new intermodal terminals to be built, and an estimated US$400 million worth of railway hardware.
Japan has much bigger concerns, however, with North Korea and China, concerns that may make it reluctant to proceed with any work in Iran absent a nod from Washington DC.
Other developments
Meanwhile, just down the coast from Chabahar, China and Pakistan are eagerly linking the upgraded port of Gwadar in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan to a rail line running all the way from Central Asia across the western part of Pakistan, as part of the grand China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India’s planned investment in the extensive Chabahar project is dwarfed by the estimated US$46 billion China is spending on CPEC, and Gwadar is more than a thorn in India’s side. Its role in supporting an increase in China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean is what has spurred Japanese willingness to help transform Chabahar into a deepwater hub.
Other rail and road projects in Iran and Afghanistan are worth noting. China is already upgrading the rail link between Tehran and Mashhad, with a projected completion date of 2019. India is pursuing a Chabahar-Faraj-Bam railway, and perhaps even a 360-mile Chabahar-Hajigak railway, allowing for direct access to Afghan mines. China has railway projects underway in Turkey, and a regular service to Tehran by Chinese trains travelling 6,000 miles from Zhejiang Province to Tehran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan began last February. Iranian and Chinese companies are working on other new rail construction projects in Iran, too.
In Afghanistan, China signed a US$204 million contract to begin construction on a 178 km Dar-e-Suf to Yakawlang road connecting the country’s central provinces. The project will be paid for by the Asian Development Bank. A second 550 km road is planned by ADB from Dar-e-Suf to Kandahar province.
Chabahar thus serves as a significant test case going forward. The US needs to demonstrate considerable patience and flexibility in Chabahar – with India in particular. Trusting Gen Nicholson’s instincts here may turn out to be the optimal way for Washington to proceed. Speaking out – again – about an increase in hate crimes in the US might be in order, too.
The author states about hate crimes as those of Indian and Sikh origin. I would like to educate him that Sikhs are also Indian origin .
Both of you rare right. But China and India should both heed the Buddha teachings which are very well recognized in both countries, namely :Hatred does not cease by hatred,
but only by love;
this is the eternal rule.
Also
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal
with the intent of throwing it at someone else;
you are the one who gets burned.
So guys, chill out and relax…
By a world traveller who has been to most countries in the world and found the word of Buddha most relevant.
Zaranj ( Afghanistan). Chabahar (Iran), and Gwadar ( Pakistan)…..all these areas are Balochistan’s territories. You have entirely ignored the non-state factors. A Free Balochistan, will not only control Chabahar but it will also control Baloch areas up to Afghanistan. Balochistan as an independent country would solve problems of India, Afghanistan, Japan and US. West should support our people and we will be able to secure their regional interest by doing so.
American diplomacy of silence should never be entertained this time rather our govt should convey bold message to president Trump enough is enough India still hold the guts to ful ful it’s commitment onChabhar port not only to counter China but an aged old responsible nation of tolerance and honesty to others if once the steps taken-
STFU you Turds have no bussines in Iran go back to where you belong
non-state actors? You mean the Saudi-supported Sunni terrorists in Iran and Pakistan? Dream on. You people must first stop whatever you are smoking that gives you hallucination, and then pass over an ocean of blood before separating our Sistan and Baluchestan from Iran. Are you up to it? Doubt it. You have a comfortable life in the West and rant. Keep smoking!
The author and Mr. Ganguly, whom he quotes, are far removed from reality about India’s stature. While all killing is to be condemned, will US change its policy or even give it another thought if a few Indians become victims of hate violence? The potential of Chabahar is limited to start with and may fizzle out depending what follows in Afghanistan. Taliban are the only force fighting ISIS in Afghanistan to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a hub for ISIS. Afghanistan is to be used to launch attacks against Central Asian countries, eventually Russia, and disrupt the rail and energy lines stradling the continent – hence Russia’s collusion with the Taliban. Something in the current setup will have to give and Chabahar may just become collateral damage.
Muhammad Sahimi Lol, calm down, calm down…Mr Sahimi …….Pakistan is a Sunni terrorist and Iran is a Shiite terrorist state. We Baloch do not support religious movements and religious states, I think Saudis, Iranians and Pakistanis are all same because all of them use religion for their political interests. I used word ‘non-state actors’ because many realists writers ignore the internal composition of states and internal movements, these kind of analysis are inaccurate because states in the East are different from western states. However, I would like to remind you of your history. Your profile indicates that you are a professor but it seems that you are a very irrational human being. There was no such state as ‘Iran’ until 1935, word Iran was adopted for Persia in 1935 by Reza Khan (BTW he was not a Pahlavi, he just adopted Pahlavi [Parthian] to make your fool) because he was inspired by German Fascist movements. Iran literally means Land of Aryans and today most of the scholars agree that there are no such thing as Aryans. Secondly, Balochistan was occupied by British, they divided and merged one part of our country into Iran illegally. Iran successfully colonised Balochistan by 1928. After the colonisation, Balochistan was internally divided by Iranian colonisers, many districts were merged into other Iranian provinces and they deliberately reduced the size of Balochistan. I can’t write the whole history here, but you must understand that no one can colonise a weak country with forces for long. Sooner or later there will be an independent Balochistan.
Overall the article is very insightful. I urge a correction immediately on the Indian and Sikh descent line. It may fuel your critics in dismissing you as yet an other uninformed westerner. Thank you.