For the world at large, the resignation by the US National Security Advisor Michael Flynn on Monday is not about an obscure 19th century law that defines a phone conversation between him and the Russian ambassador.
What it conveys are three things. First, the US is sliding into a vicious civil war. A Fox News poll released on February 14 shows that the American public is almost evenly divided over President Donald Trump’s job performance since his inauguration on January 20. When asked if the Trump administration is working on things that will help their family, 47% of voters say yes, while 48% say no.
Public opinion is split, and Washington is also going to be increasingly divided on party lines.
The Guardian newspaper is probably right in estimating that Flynn’s resignation “is unlikely to mark the end of the Trump administration’s crisis of legitimacy over its relationship with Moscow. The manner of this matter suggests that this is only the beginning.”
There is a point here, considering that the media leaks of such top-grade confidential materials by sources in the intelligence establishment shows that it is all being carefully orchestrated in accordance with a game plan to bring the Trump presidency down on its knees.
Consensus becomes difficult from this point on. No matter what Trump does or says, one half of Americans vehemently reject it because it is primarily about him, his personality. One half of the nation harbours a visceral hatred of him and is unwilling to accept him as the head of state.
Reconciliation is difficult since the fight is over entrenched interests, too, with one faction unwilling to vacate in terms of an orderly transfer of power in a democratic transition.
This schism in America puts the world at large in a dilemma. Unless and until one faction defeats the other into abject surrender and submission, the global community will be wondering about the legitimacy of the man who carries the imprimatur of the president.
Secondly, Trump functions in a hostile environment. There is no guarantee that confidential exchanges with his administration will remain as privileged information. Tomorrow they could well appear as sensational reports in The Washington Post newspaper. How could diplomacy be conducted in such a climate?
The establishment apparently rules the roost in Washington. Suffice it to say, Trump may have won an election but, clearly, he cannot formulate his Russia policies unless the establishment effectively allows him to do so.
The establishment has also shown that it has the ability and the grit to undermine Trump if he were to deviate from their script. Never before has an American president been in the predicament of being at odds with the system. These are uncharted waters, and there is no certainty that Trump will prevail over the establishment.
Trump has already retracted on Crimea. He is in no hurry to engage Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Syrian conflict. He no longer considers Nato to be “obsolete.”
He has exhibited a rare capacity to show restraint vis-à-vis North Korea. He’s had second thoughts regarding shifting the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He may even allow a surge in Afghanistan, which the military wants.
The constancy of American policies is in serious doubt. For the world’s diplomats, a constructive engagement with the US in such circumstances is fraught with risks.
A third phenomenon – strange to say the least – is that the world community at large also takes a partisan view of the American civil war.
Among the main power centres in the multipolar world setting, there are three streams of opinion. One stream, represented by Russia, seems to favor Trump. It is hoping against hope that Trump will ultimately prevail in his agenda to improve the US-Russia relationship.
However, doubts linger. Even if Trump prevails, he may only succeed in cooling the hostile climate of relations, but may not be able to deliver any concrete results such as, for example, the easing of sanctions. So, what is the big deal?
Meanwhile, the New Cold War syndrome refuses to wither away. The Nato defence ministers are gathering in Brussels on February 15-16 to discuss efforts to step up the alliance’s presence in the Black Sea, which has been historically a “Russian lake.”
Clearly, the western bloc on the whole loathes Trump and is full of nostalgia for Barack Obama. The forthcoming European elections – in France, Netherlands and Germany – will not change this attitude. Some European allies all but identify openly with Trump’s enemy camp.
This creates an unprecedented disequilibrium within the Western alliance. Trump leads the alliance, but the partners do not know how far he is to be taken seriously.
Finally, there is China, which has reason to feel pleased that things have come to such a pass in America. China watched Trump with unease bordering on trepidation initially. But now it is becoming clear that he cannot be a dominating president.
Trump wears the air of confidence and resolve, but how far China lends credibility to it is unclear. The ensuing pantomime will be hugely consequential to the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region.
Arguably, China prefers to deal with a strong interlocutor in Trump. The North Korea problem is of immediate concern and the choice is narrowing dramatically. On one side, the thaw between Washington and Pyongyang, while on the other there is the unthinkable possibility of war and massive bloodshed on the Korean Peninsula.
Equally, China senses that Trump’s interest lies in accepting its help to make a success of his growth strategy. It’s a “win-win” proposition for China, creating a level of interdependency, based on the willingness to share power and the relinquishing of US supremacy in Asia.
On the whole, the stars are shining for the China Dream. The Communist Party of China newspaper, the Global Times, noted in an editorial comment with a touch of disappointment: “Leaders need to establish their authority, and the same is true in the US. Flynn’s resignation eroded Trump’s authority as president.”
Disorganized, dishonest, disoriented leadership leading a divided country with divisive policies has its limitations. The US will easily be distracted and what foreign power can trust the WH.
Mr. Bhadra Kumar,
The current scenario of soft accommodation between the US and China that you mentioned above, where does it heads on the almost political and military alliance between China and Russia?
Is China willing to invite the US to its One Belt One Road initiative in Asia where Russia is an intimate part?
China will most definitely be happy to invite the US to its One Belt One Road initiative! Wouldn’t you want to include more markets in your business? Especially one that is still the supreme of the world power. That will ensure peace and prosperity for all for many years to come!
cvcv
It is simply incomprehensible how divided the American polity seems at this time. As if they are literally from two different worlds. The issue of Trump’s "integrity," ignorance, and basic mental health cannot be overlooked in this conversation. His interactions and behavior with Netanyahu, not to mention his flippant disregard for the two-state cornerstone of US middle east policy, revealed a man who is basically unhinged from reality and has no understanding, or interest, in a complex and delicate issue. Trump is inappropriate and an embarrassment. He seems totally incapable of separating posturing and entertainment, plus self adoration, from the demands of being a president in a large and powerful country. As a Vietnam-era veteran, I would like to second the video of a veteran’s organization that appeared recently: Mr. Trump, you are the president, start acting like one.
Trump may have 48% of the population oblivious to his incompetence and ignorance, but he has created a level of angst that I have not witnessed in American society in sixty years as a part of it. I am just not sure that sober intelligence, respect for fundamental tenets of democracy, the wisdom of the founding fathers, and the lessons of history will prevail. The absurdity of the situation is remarkable. As a person who has voted Republican for a good portion of my life, my only hope is the Republicans in the House and Senate will put country first and realize the catastrophe that could easily happen. Before it is too late.
What are the implications internationally of Trump’s pro-Russia stance. Easy to identify a weakened NATO alliance as one casualty, but what about Russia’s close relations with Iran in the Syrian civil war, and in their “team tag” gas/oil energy supplies to European countries. Trump refers to Obama and Secretary Kerry’s diplomatic coup, the nuclear deal with Iran as “bad”, thereby upholding his son-in-law Kerchner’s pro-Israel stance of not trusting the Iranians.
In Asia, there is the age-old power competition between China, Japan and Russia. By ending the TPP to protect American jobs, Trump, knowingly or unknowingly, boosts Chinese expanding power in the Far East as seen in their outreach into the Chinese Sea. Japan loses out, though the recent meeting with the country’s Prime Minister seems to band-aid that loss with a bi-lateral trade deal.
China has been expanding its influence across Asia’s vast land expanse with rail lines along the old Silk Route, forging economic deals with Russia along the way.
Does that mean that Trump’s pro-Russian policies will, ipso facto, include closer relations with China ? Since China is the only power that has some control over North Korea’s missile launches, it would seem necessary to be on good terms with Bejing.
Would someone with knowledge of diplomacy answer my dilemma in trying to make sense of America’s international relations in the age of Trump ?
Let me guess, you are probably a fan of John Mc Cain, one of the Vietnam veterans that Mc Cain didn’t leave behind to die
The events of the past month are precisely that of a civil war. One of the few areas which America has been different than most other nations is it’s relative stable government despite regime changes every 4 or 8 years. The ongoing campaign to disempower or unseat an elected President may prove to be a turning point in history: not only are American election results being attacked, but unelected government officials and bureaucrats are overtly playing power games.
It is also false to say things about only Trump. Unquestionably these recent events are a direct escalation of past episodes including Republican obstructionism in Congress.
Peter Chan
There is only one reason the US would join the OBOR and that is to subvert it from within. China should let the US rot where it is. You can only deal with Americans fro a point of distrust. Treaties and agreement are meaningless to Americans .
Don´t worry, whatever he does it will be upended in another four to eight years, Another bunch of amatures will take the place of Trump´s amatures and you will still be in a confused state. Political appointments and nepotism are the fuel that Washington runs on. That, greed and self interest. Because of the alternative news sources that Americans have at their disposal now, that house of cards is getting increasingly unsteady, because Americans are becoming more aware of just how corrupt the country is.. The establishment will hang on to the present system until the population of the USA pries it from their cold dead hands. Hopefully before that Establishment wipes out the human race in a nuclear exchange with one of the other two superpowers.
There is only one reason that America is a superpower. It has nothing to do with being an exceptional nation or brilliant leadership, given it´s track record most certainly not it´s overrated and poorly led military. It is because it was the only large country left standing and not flattened by the Second World War. Now that the effects of that war are receding America is getting back to it´s deserved place in the cosmos, just another empire in severe decline and influence.
There are two issues about Tramp’s presidency. The first is his standing as an elected president. The split between pro and anti-Trump’s groups is deep and is the result of identity politics festering all western democracies. This split is simply too dangerous to ponder about its implications. Trump isn’t a lovable person but so are his opponents who have driven the country to the wall of endless wars and economic dysfunction. Who can heel this divide is a matter of prophetic inspiration but there is none in sight to put the flames of ire in check. The USA is threatened with a civil war due to the distinct perceptions of each side for themselves and their world view.
The second issue is the relations of a superpower to its allies and foes. The “Russian affair” after the coup in Ukraine is taking a nasty turn to the worse. The opening salvo of a diminished Tramp-on-the-defensive is his demand for Russia to return the Crimea to Ukraine. The détente between the two adversaries is over. What was inevitable with a Clinton presidency became all of a sudden, a certainty with a Shrugged Tramp. This is a deadly turn in international relations and a real threat to world peace. The possibility that Tramp will work with China to neutralize Russia is a non-starter because the flagrant interference of the Washington Establishment against an elected-but hated outsider-will result in a complete distrust of the Chinese leaders towards the USA. The consequences of a rampart military interference in a world of uncontrollable masses, a rising China, a negative economic future for millions of middle class people in the west and a failing EU has come to roost in Tra
No. Trump has an agenda? Come on people of the world don’t you get it? This guy has no agenda, no principles, no character. He is literally and actually no more sophisticted than if he has an itch, he srcatches it. We are not dealing with an adult here, and you all need to stop pretending that he is.
Brash and buffoonish, sure, but with loathsome leftists and noxious neocons hating on him, he’s the Outsider of the Moment.
Getting scarier by the day.
the money..its the economy stupid as the saying goes..the west has not recovered from the financial crisis..and trump needs chinas money..with oil in a glut the arab money is no longer a US security..asia holds the future..a strategic asian network linkiing the mid east is the grand prize for india and china…hence the republic day invite for the HEAD OF THE UAE..and the opening up of the silk road…its important china continues to invest in asia..its a win win..