The People’s Republic of China loves testing American Presidents. And, as the years have gone by, they’ve started doing it sooner and with more intensity.
Recent research seems to back up this assertion. As Andrew Erickson of the US Naval War College recently pointed out, Beijing undertook 44 “increasingly aggressive intercepts leading up to the EP-3 incident” back in 2001, only 77 days after George W. Bush entered the oval office. The crisis, according to Erickson, was “intended to test [Bush’s] intentions and persuade him to adopt a more conciliatory approach to China.”
President Obama also had his own China test – this time a meager 44 days after his inauguration, in what is widely referred to as the USS Impeccable incident. According to Erickson, the move was designed as “part of a concerted Chinese effort to test [Obama’s] mettle and see if he could be pushed to reduce lawful US surveillance and reconnaissance operations in international waters and airspace.”
So what will Beijing do when it comes to Donald Trump? Let’s step back for a second and focus less on what China will do, but when it will do it— and that could be quite soon, as in now.
With Washington seriously distracted at home, the door is open for a number of actors (think not just China but Russia, Iran and/or North Korea) to make their move — and according to sources I have spoken with at the Pentagon, there is a real fear Beijing could make some sort of play fairly quickly.
I would argue that there could be no better time to test the Trump Administration from a Chinese perspective. In fact, there might not be a better time in the next several years to make a bold play in one of the strategically most important areas that Beijing considers its “core interest” and gain an important advantage over America. And these days, that likely means the South China Sea.
Consider where the United States is today, politically — a yuge, self-induced mess. Thanks to a number of what I would consider “unforced errors”, the new administration in Washington is constantly having to work through mini-crisis after mini-crisis. Whether it is the un-needed controversy over crowd sizes at the inauguration, near hourly “breaking news” over the latest Trump tweet and now a budding showdown over Trump’s executive action on refugees entering the country, foreign policy is not exactly front and center these days here in the nation’s capitol.
And from there things only get worse. There might not even be enough mid-level staffers, the backbone of many federal agencies, to respond to a crisis. When combined with the fact that many of the US State department’s most important positions are vacant, along with a rebooted National Security Council that just lost two of its most important members – none other than the heads of the Joint Chiefs and National Intelligence – there is what I could consider an obvious experience gap that is ripe for exploitation.
So, if China did decide to act swiftly, and specifically in the South China Sea, what would be its best play? My money is on an action that is bold, reinforces China’s claims of sovereignty and, most importantly, won’t be easy to retaliate against.
If I was President Xi Jinping here is what I would do to test the new administration’s intentions and at the same time see Trump squirm: declare an Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, in the South China Sea.
Now, on the surface, such a move seems highly escalatory, and not in line with other Chinese moves intended to test Bush or Obama. However, the stakes in Asia are greater than ever before, and with President Trump’s rhetoric on the South China Sea and Taiwan much bolder than that of any other new US administration just taking office, China might decide quickly it needs to see where the rubber meets the road — and fast. And there is no better way to do that than a South China Sea ADIZ.
How would Beijing make such a move? Easy, just dust off the playbook it used in 2013 when China did the same thing in the East China Sea.
How would President Trump respond? Likely just as Obama did: send advanced bombers to fly into the zone right after it is declared
Beijing may not be able to actually police either sea with great credibility if Washington or Tokyo really decided to press the matter, and in fact, to this day – according to senior officials in the Pentagon I have spoken with – it does not enforce its claims “with much vigor”. Nevertheless, four years ago it was able to set an important marker in the East China Sea opposite Japan. In the South China Sea President Xi might not be able to enforce the zone through the whole breadth of the massive nine-dash-line area, but he could create a credible military deterrent by permanently basing HQ-9 air-defense platforms and advanced fighter jets on as many of China’s “fake islands” as possible to make the zone as real as possible in a short amount of time.
So how would President Trump respond? Likely just as Obama did: send advanced bombers to fly into the zone right after it is declared. Trump could even order a naval response, conducting multiple freedom of navigation operations to make the point clear that Washington won’t ever fully accept China’s aggressive actions.
However, when it comes to such an ADIZ, it won’t be just China, America, or US allies who have the final say on its success or failure. Airlines that fly in the new the zone won’t risk their passengers lives with non-compliance and a possible shoot-down if a plane is misidentified, so they will of course send their flight plans to Beijing, making such a zone a reality.
But all of this should be no shock. A Chinese ADIZ in the South China Sea has been something that has been discussed and theorized for years now. And there might not be a better time to try and make it a reality.
Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former US President Richard M. Nixon, as well as executive editor of The National Interest. In the past, Kazianis has managed the foreign policy communications of The Heritage Foundation and served as editor of The Diplomat.
Tuna Van that’s a lie concocted by you. Remember, China’s deep history goes way way back before 18th century. You were a vassal state for a millennium.
Victor Yeung
My comment was not meant to denigrate China. I just wanted to point out that it is a strategy that has the desired result without any major confrontation, resulting in war.. Unlike the Jews, China is pursuing legitimate goals. The Jews are clearly war criminals and thieves in Palistine.
Israel is stealing land that is not there’s under a false pre-text and using their false Ashkenazi Jewish roots to remove the true semites (Palestines).
https://www.darkmoon.me/2013/european-jews-are-not-semites-by-rehmat/
China has been around for thousands of years, now regarding territory I’m pretty sure with the Optium war, WWI, WWII alot got stolen etc. So, its natural for a strong nation to reassert itself ortherwise the other zionist enclave and slave Japan will take the helm and fill the void.
With the US hegemony trying to ensure its status quo and for their zionist masters to fullfil their NWO agenda, they will use all means to divide and conquer the BRICS, SCO, OBOR, AIIB, NDB etc.
US is nothings but a zionist cestpool of global murdering criminals that feed off war, murder, pillage and outright unipolar fascism (look it up if you dunno what fascism is and see how it nicely matches TBTF, revoking of FASB 157etc.)
I see a few posters here who are oblivious to the bullshit western news so I’ll cut it sort. You want to know what the fark is happening in the world, dun watch cnn, bbc news, Fox, etc. You will just become a brain dead zillot constantly doing brain farts whilst the people who have started to descend the rabbit hole laughs their arses off!
Perry Kamath Crocodiles are stupid and makes good shoes.
Jing Wang ,those island belong to vietnam back in 18th century . Back in the nguyen’s king day. China took over after 1974.
sounds more like wishful thinking from a war monger scoundrel
Didn’t the Vietnamese built structures in disputed area first?
Perry Kamath China is the only country that can save the world from going down the abyss.
Wait a little longer here. China will bully or bribe littoral South China Sea states! Phillippine president has already succumbed to Chinese bribes and has gone to pay his tributes. Soon it will be Malaysia,and Vietnam, Brubei etc. China is like crocodile. Once it’s jaw closes, it won’t open once again. The legendary Middle Kingdom has begun.
Like NGO DINH DIEM said never listen to what the communist said but look at their action. China don’t want peace. If the want peace why keep using their big Shipp hit those poor vietnamese ship out of the water. I hope the try to do that to those Australia, and America ship. The reason they want peace now because they finish build their island so they don’t want war. ..
Very keen on creating world catastrophe, aren’t you? I’m glad you don’t have your little finger on the red button.
I’m tired of people who don’t seem to be able to remain level-headed and grasp perspective from all angles rather than having a cowherd mentality to follow along on a single-sided view. Apparently, the west has won hands down on waging mind control.
Unfortunately, there is really no telling how Trump would react. At this point it is a safe bet that his response would not be measured. Maybe this is his goal for being unpredictable, he could react with freedom of navigation flights and sailing, or, he could react with nukes and does China really want to find out? Sigh, it would be nice if there was a grown-up in the room…
According to this author–According to Erickson, the move was designed as “part of a concerted Chinese effort to test [Obama’s] mettle and see if he could be pushed to reduce lawful US surveillance and reconnaissance operations in international waters and airspace.”–
So, US war ships sailing anywhere are "lawful survaillance operations in international waters and airspace", whereas any Chinese survaillance and reconnaissance opeartions in THESE SAME waters and airspace would be illegal, bully operations, and militarizations of the regions. Typical American logic (read– double standard; me first; me exceptional; my way or the highway; LOL!).
Wait until China begins to surveil and reconn the Gulf of Mexico, west Atlantic, or waters off the California coast. That’s tic for tac. I’d likely live to see that day.
I am tired of these damn Chinese bully all little country around them.
Test trump he will go crazy drop some nukes on your ass xi.
China reminds me of that old Sinatra song ( I think it was Sinatra) The Ant And The Rubber Tree). Slowly but surely they are taking all of their territory back. Not in any way that anyone is going to go to war with them, just one action at a time. Much like the Israeli´s are taking over Palistine, one block at a time.