Source: Bloomberg

Durable goods orders for January came in at +1.8%, above the 1.6% consensus. The most important data point, capital goods orders ex-aircraft, fell 0.5% month on month (vs. consensus expectation of a gain). More important, though, is the year-on-year number. Capital goods orders ex-aircraft are up 2.6% YOY, which is the best reading since mid-2014. That’s probably driven mainly by shale as oil prices recover. — David Goldman