India’s foreign-policy community has begun agonizing over the era of Donald Trump in world politics. A host of assumptions anchoring India’s policies, dating back to the nineties, appear to be getting invalidated.
As the nineties ended, the task was well under way to reshape India’s foreign policy options in the wake of the sudden disbandment of the former Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. This prompted India to ‘cross the Rubicon’, as it were.
India embraced the ‘Washington Consensus,’ which was regarded as strategically important for launching major economic reforms.
There was a twin foreign-policy dimension to it. The Indian estimation was that Russia had become a shell of the former Soviet Union would never recover its influence as a global power.
The Indian elites concluded that being the lone superpower, US hegemony was inevitable for well into another century. This facile intellectual construct, based on flawed notions of history and the contemporary world situation, led to the decision that India should cross the Rubicon and draw closer to the United States.
A second underlying assumption — again, highly contentious — which was linked to the above, was that the US considered it in its self-interest to help India’s transformation as a modern economy and in its rise as a world-class power, because pitting India as a counterweight to China was going to be a principal focus of the American strategy in the coming century.
Simply put, Indian elites saw the US as a ‘natural ally.’ India’s then-National Security Advisor (1999-2004) Brajesh Mishra, in fact, proclaimed at a public function in Delhi in 2003 that the principal challenge facing India’s foreign policy and diplomacy in the coming decades lay in doing what it took to get Washington to pay sustained attention to India and ensure that things stayed that way.
To cut a long story short, Indian foreign policies crossed the Rubicon with gusto. The neo-liberalist outlook in economic policies, abandonment of non-alignment, debunk of India’s accent on ‘strategic autonomy’, harmony with the US’ regional policies and strategies, benign neglect of the relationship with Russia, advancement of India-US ‘defining partnership’, and many a little, nameless act of contributing to the US’ containment strategy against China — these were key templates in India’s post-Cold War foreign policy.
Of course, the US helpful to prompt and mentor those processes, even obtrusively at times. Nonetheless, the journey was never without hiccups and the American side still remains a discontented partner.
The heart of the matter is that Indian nationalism keeps mutating in a way that outsiders find exasperating.
The Indians have been eagerly looking forward to the journey ahead under Hillary Clinton’s presidency. Unsurprisingly, Trump’s ascendancy and his election victory came as a rude shock.
There was an element of wishful thinking here. Hillary’s world view (if there was one) meshed nicely with New Delhi’s. She particularly delighted the Indians with her authorship of the US’ pivot strategy in Asia.
Her ‘toughness’ toward China and Pakistan raised hopes that her presidency would give pivotal importance to the US’ relations with India.
New Delhi was not in the least perturbed that she compared Russia’s President Vladimir Putin with Adolf Hitler or that she was unabashedly an interventionist who would have seriously undermined world peace by triggering new wars.
On the contrary, Trump unnerves Indians. A foreign policy wonk of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the Hindu organization that mentors the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote recently about Trump presidency,
“India needs to be watchful about US moves with at least four important countries — Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan… India needs to do a tightrope walk… What we need is some out-of-the-box thinking in our diplomatic objectives and goals. Right now that is missing.”
Things look dismal, don’t they? Indeed, crossing the Rubicon came easy for India twenty years ago. The river was shallow, like the one Julius Caesar crossed.
But the power dynamic has dramatically changed today. Russia is back on the world stage and Trump looks forward to engaging with it. So, indeed, Trump will have to negotiate with China, if he is serious at all about his doctrine of ‘America First’.
Simply put, the US’ containment strategy has unraveled. India needs to reboot its strategic autonomy and reinvent its own bilateral tracks with Russia and China.
And it will be doing so from a position of disadvantage. Russia has come through baptism under fire and India was of hardly any help as a ‘time-tested friend’ during the difficult times.
Russia now has varied options in the pursuit of its regional strategies and some of them — such as the thaw in relations with Pakistan — tread on Indian sensitivities.
But then, Russia never made demands on India’s prerogative to forge its ‘defining partnership’ with the US, when the Kremlin was fighting off the Obama administration’s containment policies.
Again, India’s tilt toward the US’ pivot strategy in Asia has annoyed China, which will now put India in its place. India touched raw nerves — South China Sea, Tibet, etc. — and it won’t be forgotten easily.
Trump can be expected to be indifferent to regional conflicts that do not threaten US interests. Plainly put, he may not have the interest to wage the open-ended war in Afghanistan or to take sides in India’s problematic ties with China and Pakistan.
Trump’s commitment to the US’ alliance systems in Asia remains to be seen. On the other hand, indications are that China is carefully fostering a new regional security format with Russia, Pakistan and Iran, where India stands excluded.
In sum, sans Hillary, India finds itself without a ‘natural ally.’ Life on the other side of the Rubicon used to be self-contained and far more predictable.
I have my doubts on china playing with Pakistan,Iran & Russia for long haul……i also doubt US committing its chest & people for nation building activities.However i think India & china has the greatest potential for great relationship…..if Indians get rid of their political dynasty who are a irritant for china as they are but hand maiden of USA.
At some point of time it may be possible for americans to compromise with chinese…..they do have the numbers of china saving 5 trillion dollar a year over a decade it will be 50 trillion dollar…as the great american president says "Cash is King" i am sure president trump will respect chinese cash.
The other reason why i do agree with MKB is….India has its foot with many powers like russia,usa,saudis,iran,british,japan……that may also be the reason why china does not want to improve ties with India.Due to bureaucrats like MKB who occupied foreign policy posts for 5 decades the incentive for china to accomodate India will be less than willing.Also china may be thinking after USA ( the indo-pak-bangla) axis may itself be a great national security threat for them.
Well, a new Eurasian order is in the making for the first time in approximately 800 years or so with a new template. Let us see what happens next June during the SCO summit about India and Pakistan membership.That will be the defining moment explaing the contours of Greater Eurasia politics.
Well India, there is nothing like tying your life boat to a sinking ship. The signs have been there for all to see over the past 16 years that the US has a terminal sickness when it comes to foreign influence. More and more countries have already seen this weakness and are willing to give the US the finger and tie their economic hopes to the Chinese jaugernaut.
If there is any doubt about which nation owns the future between the US and China I would advise looking at " China From Above" a two part series on National Geographic, you can find it on Youtube. As compared to China the USA is beginning to look more and more like a third world country. If not for it´s dangerous military and it´s forever , over the top, optimism of it´s military leadership, it is already at least a second rate country in everything that really counts.
As compared to China the USA is beginning to look more and more like a third world country. If not for it´s dangerous military and it´s forever , over the top, optimism of it´s military leadership, it is already at least a second rate country in everything that really counts.
So true Mr Kuhn!
India made a mistake of not aligning with USA long ago, but it is doing the right thing now. At our personal levels, even our best friends exist and remain so , because of mutual benefits. Same is true for the Nations. America(and west) want markets and India wants technologies and investments. Alignments facilitate mutual benefits.
Will China give you Technologies, Does Russia has anything to offer other than Military equipment. It is the West and their allies in the east, on whom India must bank- to kick start India’s progress.
The whole issue is… China wants to become No.1 in World…remember even in G2..for Chinese…..China is 1 and USA is 2. China is nurturing Pakis to check India. Russia , due to some reasons , is getting close to China. Now what does India do ???
So, proactive moves by India must be appreciated. Instead of highlighting the cons, why don’t also mention the pro(s), Mr. Bhadrakumar.
Plainly without much ado, as an observer and commentator of geopolitics for last half decade, only one ‘makaradhvajah’ aka omnipotent move by New Delhi’s present pundits undo the hypothesis [India’s foreign policy crossed the Rubicon for unsure gains]. Proximity to Russia as time tested ally would generate enough anomalies in the equation ! Then, the foreign policy can afford to cross the Rubicon for sure gains. Whatever, career diplomats and professional politicians with their opinions on geopolitics as usual in utmost opaque narratives, they even can’t afford to forget that overall Russia was the ‘Man of the match(es)’ among all unfurling theatres and strategic bargaining last couple of years. Albeit, it is just matter of perspective, on which angle the gentleman made his observations. But, to us there are plenty of avenues for India to play important role; nonetheless we prefer to the one- one shot, two targets.
Why can’t the US, Russia, China and India form an alliance to de-nuclearize Pakistan? Its the only country whose nukes could fall into Jihadi hands.
spellings of principle is wrong it is written as principal on both the 2 places it was used! :).
Yar! This is not a English grammar class. Don’t you worry too much about syntax . It is the idea that is more important than typos!
Impossible dream, for Pakistan itself was once helped by China in acquiring nuke technology and now it is a satelite of China!
MKB is writing the obituary of the US power too soon. Pakistan is allies with China for it’s narrow, slefish purposes , which is to seek a strategic depth of sorts against India, and that suits China also . While China and Russia may be drawing closer, the whole of South and East Asia is growing suspicious of China’s intentions. Whatever may be the benefit of the partnership with the US, India can gain a series of alies and friends in Japan, Vietnam, Phillipines, Southeast Asia. Played deftly, and with increasing economic power, it can match China’s alliances and contain it. US partnership cannot be the cornerstone of India’s strategy while it has much value.
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"… China is carefully fostering a new regional security format with Russia, Pakistan and Iran, where India stands excluded."
What a loss for India, indeed. Bhadrakumar is right to remind us Indians that our greatest well wishers have been Pakistan and China,.
"Trump can be expected to be indifferent to regional conflicts that do not threaten US interests. Plainly put, he may not have the interest to wage the open-ended war in Afghanistan or to take sides in India’s problematic ties with China and Pakistan."
He sided with India. Your next prediction?