China’s trade picture is looking gloomy as the national customs agency released data showing the biggest drop in exports last year since 2009, a downtrend that may continue based on World Bank forecasts and the potential for trade friction with the US.
“International trade will see a difficult period of recovery and there is increasing uncertainty,” Huang Songping, a spokesman for China’s General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference.
He cited World Trade Organisation forecasts of a decline in global trade growth of between 1.8% and 3.1% in 2017. “China is not isolated from this trend,” Huang said.
China’s exports in 2016 fell 7.7% to US$2.097 trillion, while imports dropped 5.5% to US$1.587 trillion. As a result, the country’s trade surplus dropped a sizable 16.4% to US$510 billion.
Among imports of commodities, crude oil jumped 13.6% to 381 million metric tons and coal increased 25.2% to 256 million tons.
Exports in December dropped by 6.1%, or worse than the consensus forecast for a decline of 3.5% on the website Trading Economics. Imports in the last month of 2016 rose 3.1%, beating the consensus of 2.7%.
The bright spot not mentioned in the article was that the trade with Russia increased 2,2%. There is a huge upside potential in the trade with Russia. China should use some of its currency reserves investing in the growing markets in Asia. Investing in Iran will give a far better return on investment and the added benefit will be increased trade. It seems the US will launch a trade and currency war against China, why have the currency reserves in the coffers of the enemy that attacks you? China should hope and work for the best with the new President Trump administration, but prepare for the worst.
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