What if…? The never-ending question foreign policy practitioners here in Washington love to ask. And it seems like these days we have many reasons to be asking it, given the sheer amount of anniversaries we’ve been looking back on just in the last few months, not to mention the momentous events in our own time. Some examples: What if the Soviet Union never fell? What if Japan never attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor? What if Donald Trump had lost the election? The list can go for miles without end.
But there is one what-if that has been stuck in my craw for the last few weeks: What if President George W. Bush had much tougher in his response during the EP-3 Crisis of 2001? What if he had listened to other voices who were whispering into his ear — people like Donald Rumsfeld, for example, who were pushing for a tougher line on Beijing?
In light of what can be only be charitably described as Chinese adventurism in the East and South China Seas, and renewed pressure on Taiwan in recent years, it is worth exploring if a tough stand early enough during the period of China’s so-called “peaceful rise” would have made any difference.
The Incident
On April 1, 2001, a US EP-3 surveillance plane cruising 70 miles off the coast of China was carrying out what Washington considered to be routine intelligence gathering. However, China had made it well known it considered such flights, in what is international airspace, anything but routine — rather, it viewed them as a violation of the country’s sovereignty, a stance held by Beijing to this day. Forty-four flights had already been intercepted that year, but this time things would turn tragic.
While both sides finger the other as the guilty party, most in the US intelligence and defense communities argue that a Chinese pilot simply ventured too close in his intercept and flew into one of the EP-3’s propellers. Tragically, the Chinese plane crashed into the sea, costing the pilot his life. The American surveillance aircraft, badly damaged, had to make an emergency landing. The only place that could conceivably work: Hainan Island…in China.
![A man in Haikou on China's Hainan island, April 4, 2001 reads a newspaper showing photos of United States' B-2 and F22 military planes. A U.S.Navy EP-3 electronic reconnaissance plane is parked at Lingshui base on the island province after it collided with a Chinese jet fighter on Sunday. U.S. President George W. Bush called for an immediate end to the stalemate with China and said "it is time" to end the ordeal.BY/PB - RTRGKPX](https://i0.wp.com/static.atimes.com/uploads/2017/01/RTRGKPX-580x387.jpg?resize=580%2C387)
The Initial Response
It seems the first instinct for Bush — and I would argue it would have been the correct one — was to take a stand against such an aggressive intercept. Of course, China has the right to follow American intelligence aircraft in international airspace; however, it has no legal grounds to expect Washington to avoid areas around China. Even during the Cold War, Soviet intelligence operations by land and sea would get as close as international law allowed to the United States.
As Bush explained in a statement:
“…We have been in contact with the Chinese government about this incident since Saturday night. From our own information, we know that the United States naval plane landed safely. Our embassy in Beijing has been told by the Chinese government that all 24 crew members are safe.
Our priorities are the prompt and safe return of the crew, and the return of the aircraft without further damaging or tampering. The first step should be immediate access by our embassy personnel to our crew members. I am troubled by the lack of a timely Chinese response to our request for this access.
Our embassy officials are on the ground and prepared to visit the crew and aircraft as soon as the Chinese government allows them to do so. And I call on the Chinese government to grant this access promptly.
Failure of the Chinese government to react promptly to our request is inconsistent with standard diplomatic practice, and with the expressed desire of both our countries for better relations…”
Unfortunately, Bush would not hold to what seemed, at least, like an initial tough stance. He authorized his foreign policy team, specifically Secretary of State Colin Powell, to find a compromise solution. The end result is what is rather oddly referred to as “the letter of two sorries”. A strongly worded and almost disorganized statement of remorse, the letter attempted to express regret over the death of the Chinese pilot and the EP-3 entering Chinese airspace without clearance. China did not have to reciprocate any sadness or remorse over the incident and offered no such letter in return to America.
Even after Washington offered its apology, Beijing still wanted more. The Bush Administration would have to wait months to get the plane back, and when it was returned it was completely disassembled — no doubt taken apart and mined for any and all secrets Beijing could lift from it. America even had to pay to have it shipped back. Additionally, Washington agreed to also pay for the food and lodgings of the airmen: US$34,000 in total.
What Could Have Been Done Differently?
To be fair to the Bush Administration, there are no easy choices in such a tragedy. Pushing too far could risk making China an enemy and undoing years of hard work at bettering political as well as soon-to-be critical economic ties.
“I did not believe that America would benefit from being seen as a weak supplicant. Moreover, I thought that there should be some kind of clear penalty for China’s dangerous behavior”
Still, it is worth exploring what could have been a very feasible option offered by then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. As he explained in his recent autobiography, he suggested a different approach: “When the President asked me what I thought, I said I did not favor an apology or suspending our reconnaissance flights. The Chinese knew they were in the wrong. Capitulating to their threats and feigned outrage could embolden China’s military and political leaders to commit still more provocative acts. I did not believe that America would benefit from being seen as a weak supplicant. Moreover, I thought that there should be some kind of clear penalty for China’s dangerous behavior.”
So what other options could Bush have considered?
He could have tied the release of the crew and plane to what — at the time — was a yearly mini-battle over the renewal of normal trade status for China. Simply stated: no plane, no crew, no normal trade.
![US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld briefs reporters at the Pentagon, 13 April 2001, on the facts associated with the recent collision of the US EP-3 Aries II reconnaissance aircraft and a Chinese F-8 fighter aircraft. Rumsfeld said that the collision was the culmination of months of "aggressive" Chinese flying designed to intimidate the crews of US planes. "It is clear that the pilot intended to harass the crew," Rumsfeld told reporters at the Pentagon. "It was not the first time that our reconnaissance and surveillance flights flying in that area received that type of aggressive contact from interceptors. AFP PHOTO/DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/R. D. WARD / AFP PHOTO / DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE / R. D. WARD](https://i0.wp.com/static.atimes.com/uploads/2017/01/000_APW2001041490935-580x389.jpg?resize=580%2C389)
Bush could have also pushed for a joint statement, with both parties expressing mutual regret, so that no one side lost face. But America’s apology, which Chinese media hailed as a victory, created an impression that Washington would back down in a crisis, that it was afraid of damaging ties, and it’s arguable that this set a dangerous precedent for the future. In fact, in the intervening years since the tragedy, many Chinese scholars and retired military officials have pinpointed the incident, stating clearly that America would not challenge Beijing in a crisis, especially as China’s power has increased over time. As one retired PLA officer told me just recently: “You backed down in 2001 when the stakes were quite high — when we had your airmen. We have every reason to believe you will do it again when times get tough.”
The Limiting Factor: The 9/11 Attacks
Even if Bush had pushed for a harder line in responding to the crisis, there is one limiting factor making the utility of such a pushback against China short-lived: the events of 9/11. As Frank Ching explained several years ago in The Diplomat:
“…on the morning of September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda terrorists hijacked four airliners and crashed them into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC.
From this perspective, bin Laden’s attack on the United States was a heaven-sent opportunity for China, one that was quickly grasped by Jiang. The Chinese leader immediately offered his sympathies and support to Bush, following up with a telephone call.
The US President quickly grasped the hand of friendship extended by China, marking a dramatic turning point in the US-China relationship. Indeed, the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States radically altered the Bush administration’s entire world view.
With the United States already under attack, the Bush administration’s attention was no longer focused on China as the next enemy. Instead, it redirected its attention to radical Islam and al-Qaeda’s operations around the world. The fact is, it’s not going too far to say that China owes a huge debt of gratitude to Osama bin Laden…”
Sadly, in the final analysis, a tougher line would have done little to stop the one event that would turn America’s eye away from Asia for almost a decade. Still, one wonders what could have been if Bush had pushed back harder, and at least set a marker that a belligerent and defiant Beijing would not be treated as a “responsible stakeholder”. China would have had at least some reason to think twice, over the last several years, in its march to re-order the status-quo in Asia in its favor.
Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former US President Richard M. Nixon, as well as executive editor of The National Interest. In the past, Kazianis has managed the foreign policy communications of The Heritage Foundation and served as editor of The Diplomat.
Matt Bowyer no they were flying too close and dangerous. That’s why we took their planes apart. What about you pathetic pommy ?
Agree! "Respect for international law" actually translates to "respect for strength and power". And when you are powerful, you can make "international laws" to suit your interests. When that doesn’t work, you can tilt the laws your way (US views on human rights or torture after 9/11), or simply ignore it (Nicaragua vs. US at ICJ).
They weren’t flying ‘over Chinese territory’, they were in international airspace.
The author’s credibility, or rather lack thereof, can be seen in his failure to note that the United States of America had a policy of violating other sovereign nation’s airspace for years.
These include: the over flights by U2 spy planes, smug in their view that Soviet antiaircraft capabilities were insufficient to defend against these intrusions until Gary Powers was shot down. The lower altitude spotlighting of Soviet air defenses along borders which resulted in dozens of US aircraft shot down.
China experienced the same "respect for international law" until it developed and/or bought it’s own defensive capabilities.
George Silversurfer Which ever nation he is from as a Indian i can tell you ….reading all newspapers tells you if phillipines,vietnam,thailand are making amends to woo chinese…..Indians will not be way behind also to woo the chinese….already they have demonstrated that by giving a 500BN dollar trade surplus the past decade.China is too big & powerful even for the Americans also ….India is no where in that picture.
Both china & west & non chinese/nonwest have lesss in common or there has been proof that they can have intercourse as equals due to wide disparity wealthh,technology,historical narrative.China will accomodate american aspirations for 1-2 decades ……but long run chinese civilization will not treat everyone as their equal……just a quid pro quo of west not treating even a major civilization like Japan as their equal in first/second WW.As a asian i am interested in improving understanding with china compared to west as western influence will erode failing to compete with china in hard/soft powers.
If the Anglo American media and conservative pundits are more objective in their assessment of China, the world will be a better and safer place for all humankind, especially
Americans and Chinese. China and the U.S. need each other. Their economies are increasingly intertwined, benefiting both sides. China neither manipulates its currency nor steals U.S. jobs as Trump and his NTC chair, Navarro, said. If the Americans want to blame someone, they should point the finger at automation, investors wanting a higher return on investment, excessive corporate executive salary, and inadequate government job retraining programs for workers displaced by globalization. It’s time for Trump to talk to China, threatening it with a trade or military war will serve no one’s interest.
What if the Chinese plane had not crashed into the EP3: The US will continue to fly over Chinese territory with inpunity.
What if US had taken a harder line and demanded that the EP3 fly out of Hainan on its own power or else. And China called it out or else what ? US would lose all credibility among its allies.
If China was "clearly in the wrong" it should have apologised. So who apologised? And who had to pay the shiping cost of the airplane in crates? Mr Kazianis would have been better off to let this episode be left in the past instaed of bringing it up
LOL. Delusional imagination.
It appears these days there have been quite some hand-wringing and regrets among some Americans about China. What if we didn’t let China enter WTO? What if Nixon didn’t go to China? What if? The underlying frustration, paranoid and desperation are probably best captured by Michael Phillsbuy’s book: The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.
Americans still have not come to realize that China is not a country to be bullied around. In many respects they have the world´s largest economy. They have trillions in foreign reserves. They are growing military power and internal infrastructure exponentially. The USA. It has battered itself silly over doxens of wars of choice, creating enemies far and wide. The Chinese build roads and schools, the US bombs countries back to the stone age.
And quoting Donald Rumsfeld. Really? The idiot most responsible for getting the Iraq debacle under way. The biggest foreign policy blunder the US has made in its short history.
If this writer thinks that the US can still take China to the woodshed like an incalsitrant youngster, he is suffering from severe delusions. Oh and one other observation, since when has the South China Sea been moved to the Gulf of Mexico?
that is simple harry.. hank paulson would have gone home empty handed from Beiing in 2007.
What IF is just a lot of wishful imagination and a wasteful exercise.