You can already hear it starting. The cries and eulogies of what never was and what could have been — the magical lost trade deal, the amazing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the so-called “gold standard” of free trade agreements.
It was the ultimate pet project of many free-traders here in Washington, who proclaimed TPP would usher in a new age of profitable trade, tight labor standards, protection for intellectual property and so on.
One senior trade official in Washington that actively advises multiple Republican congressman and senators explained to me just last week: “America stands to lose lots of jobs, lots of economic growth, lots of prestige, and lots of future clout in Asia if our new President withdraws from TPP.”
Except none of it is true. Well, at least for the United States, that is. You see, TPP, was never about trade for Washington.
According to economist Samuel Rines, America’s GDP would only grow at an insignificant 0.13 percent, or roughly $27 billion, by 2025. As Rines explained in The National Interest back in 2014, “At about 57 percent of TPP participant GDP and 40 percent of the population, the U.S. is too big to benefit from the deal, and many of the other nations involved are already tied together by agreements.
Game changer?
If the entirety of the $210 billion annual benefit to 2025 global GDP from TPP were to accrue to the U.S., it would only add about 1 percent to GDP.” Does any of that look like a game-changer?
But as Rines noted two years ago, TPP was never about the money, or as he explained, “an immediate economic benefit” but “engaging with emerging Asia and being present while the rules of trade are set.”
To be fair — and not to dance on the grave of what is likely a dead deal — creating new rules of the road in Asia when it comes to trade could be done in lots of different ways. Does one really need some fancy new trade deal, that does zip for America economically, to make that happen? The simple answer has always been: no.
It seems it’s about time that TPP get outed for what it really was — and why I supported it even when it did little for America. It was the sort of agreement that transcended economics, especially for Asia-hands. And that is because TPP had a much more important function: Pushing back against the rise of China by reinforcing our partnerships and alliances in the region.
While no one in the Obama administration would ever admit it on the record, the “pivot” or “rebalance” to the Asia-Pacific was always about limiting Beijing’s ability to dominate the region, while, at the same time, walking a tight-rope to ensure China did not become an outright enemy.
This is why Obama avoided placing large amounts of military muscle into the region or courting even stronger nations like Vietnam or Taiwan — his team always knew the Chinese reaction would be swift and potentially painful.
Beyond trade
TPP’s real goal was to go far beyond trade, a deal with real strategic importance. TPP was meant to be a clear indicator that America has and will always forever be locked to the future of Asia — no matter how many fake islands China builds or how much it tries to bully its neighbors.
It was Asia’s safety blanket insurance that Washington was in Asia to stay, no matter what happened, now and into the un-seeable future.
What Happens Next Will Be Vital for the Trump Administration.
The good news is there is lots of ways to cement America to Asia and at the same time send a message to China that Washington will not retreat across the Pacific. In fact, TPP’s death can be an opportunity for the region — if handled correctly.
President Trump must now find an alternative way to reassure allies in the Asia-Pacific region, showing Washington will continue to engage Asia, promote mutually beneficial trade, but also take strong steps to ensure the region is not dominated or coerced by China.
This could include multiple bilateral trade agreements. Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam should be approached first as they are key to any new Asia strategy that President Trump will enact.
The president must also be sure to get the messaging right as TPP gets thrown in the trash—something that is not always his strongest suit. He needs to explain, in a less colorful fashion than normal, that TPP was a poor way to ensure Asia remains economically free and vibrant while immediately detailing his own vision for the region.
If he doesn’t, we know China will.
Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former US President Richard M. Nixon, and Executive Editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest.
This writer seems completely out to lunch. In what universe is there any reason to think that Trump will do any of the things he recommends? If anything, Trump will do the opposite – he has already declared war on global trade. He may eventually be forced to retreat from this by political and economic realities, but not before the damage is done.
He’s paid to be out to lunch and take others with him – he’s a career propagandist.
Only confirms what everyone thought. Its not for trade but about contraining China. CCTV today discussed the possibility of China leading the TPP instead. What a trun up for the books it would be haha
Ok Harry.. We will hold off our tears until we hear your next words of wisdom on the matter.
China will dominate Asia no matter what the US tries to do. Lets see the US prevent China from accessing it´s own territory, and then we will see what happens when the rubber really hits the road.
The TPP was about taking away the power of member nations to regulate American International Companies that operate in their countries. That and freezing China out of trading with the member nations. It was just one more crude design by the Beltway Warriors to contain China,
China is like the horse that fled the barn, way, way too late to try and lock the barn door now. American businessmen in their forever search for quick profits gave away America´s manufacturing sector to China and the rest of Asia. They made out like bandits so long as the newly unemployed Americans were buying these new cheaply produced goods on their credit cards. Now those credit cards are maxed out and there is no more easy money and quick profits. Now they are getting bitten by that short range thinking. Now they want it all back. But they do not have the means to take it back. Xi is playing with them just like my cat does to the helpless mice it catches. Trump will be even easier pickings than were Bush and Obama.
For Trump sitting behind his dest in the Trump Tower he could dream up all kinds of solutions to America´s troubles. probably lectured his bobble head staff on exactly what he would or would not do when he became President. Not one contrary word did he hear. Now he will get to hear some contrary words. Now he is in the Oval Oval office and he is really going to see the limits on US economic and military power. Before the 1990s America had both money and military power. Now it has no money and it´s military is over extended and weakened by the 13 wars they have been fought and are still fighting over the last 30 years and that has cost them more than 14.2 trillion dollars, never mind the american soldiers that died on the battle field and the hundres of thousands that have since committed suicide.. In short they have nothing to offer anyone.
I love that part. Instead of the US containing China it will be China containing the USA. Xi will have pulled a Putin Judo move on Trump and the Beltway Warriors. Poetic justice at it´s best.
The playing field is littered with Trump’s defeated antagonists, but go ahead and join them. China’s One Belt One Road Initiative is a brilliant long term strategy and Trump is the first and only politician that understands China’s purpose and how to survive it. i agree China will emerge as the leading economic power and a very powerful military power but thanks to Trump it will take them a lot longer and the United States will survive as a power that must be respected both militarily and economically.
It loos like Donald Trump is delivering his promises. And I think that for once these are not good news Check this poll about Trump delivering his electoral promises ,and the pros and cons of Trump as president.Interesting article too
https://netivist.org/debate/president-trump-pros-and-cons-promises
Now that TPP is dead, the author is spinning the other way. What else is new?
LOL.
Art Laramee Totally misleading. China’s military budget is a fraction of US and by that token, it would take a long long time before it can match US, whatever that means. That path will take longer than Trump’s term in office. But attributing that to Trump (when he only started this week) would be rather desperate. If anything, the threat by Tillerman would be an incentive for China to accelerate their military investment.
While most Asians give a hoot to its demise but from various reportings, the Japs, Singkies and Ozzies will probably hang on whatever tiny free trade straws of hope like RCEP they can grasp.
KS Chin
The US is squandering it´s vast military budget on 800 military bases around the world, not in defending the USA. China does only spend a fraction of what the US does on miltary, but that money is spent on defending their country, not for dominating the entire world. In a war with China the US can only bring a fraction of it´s military might to bear. China on the other hand can apply overwhelming military might right in it´s own backyard. It costs much less to defend your own country than it does to garrison the world. The Brits and Romans found that out in spades.