With the disastrous foreign and defense policies followed by the last two administrations in Washington, power vacuums have emerged throughout the world, and as we all know, nature (and politics) abhors a vacuum. Europe can no longer even be considered a significant player in the global geopolitical context.
Which leaves only three great powers in the contemporary world: a weakened United States, The Russian Federation and the Peoples’ Republic of China. Last month I wrote about Russia, which is in the process not only of forming a Eurasian empire from Siberia to Eastern Europe, but which in a few years and in the face of a fragile economy and a declining and unhealthy population, has detached pieces of Georgia and Ukraine, turned the Black Sea into a Russian lake, implanted defensive and offensive missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave which effectively turns the Baltic Sea into another Russian lake, established a major presence in the Eastern Mediterranean with naval and air bases on the Syrian coast and which regularly violates the air and sea spaces of its neighbors with impunity. It has done all this using almost exclusively naval and air power and the Western response has been feeble at best.
This month we will turn our attention to China, which is rampaging through the Western Pacific the way Russia is rampaging through its periphery from the Baltics to the Mediterranean. China has achieved effective control over the East and South China seas, and as in the case of Russia the reaction of the West has been feeble at best. It is projecting its naval presence into the Indian Ocean and the approaches to the Red Sea and Suez with bases in Gwadar on the coast of Pakistan and Djibouti. It has a significant presence in Africa, where many of the Chinese working on various projects have functions other than those for which they were contracted.
There are some interesting parallels between the two expansionist powers:
In the case of Russia its brilliant use of military display and effective propaganda and diplomacy have resulted in a resurgence of its influence even where its military presence is absent, with Moldova and Bulgaria electing pro-Russian governments and other countries in Eastern Europe turning from the West. China has already detached the Philippines from its alliance with the US—an enormously significant development which has elicited little negative domestic or international reaction. This development has undoubtedly been noticed by other countries in the region and the call to president-elect Trump by the Taiwanese president is one reflection of this fact.
A second similarity is that both countries have alliances with emerging nuclear states: North Korea in the case of China and Iran in the case of Russia. This is significant because each country is strategically located. North Korea flanks non-nuclear South Korea and Japan, both American clients fearful of a US withdrawal. Iran threatens equally fearful American clients in the Arabian peninsula, already weakened by the drop in the price of oil.
Furthermore, there is little chance of playing one expanding power off against the other because at least for the time being, an their expansionary plans and actions do not conflict with each other. Indeed they can be expected to collaborate in detaching chunks of the former Western spheres of military, political and economic influence.
The incoming Trump administration has been sending conflicting signals concerning the global rivals of the United States. On the one hand promising to avoid foreign entanglements and on the other a bellicose attitude when vital interests are threatened. In other words, avoiding the disastrous if opposed mistakes of both the Bush and Obama administrations. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as it does not result in policy or strategic paralysis because of the inherent contradictions.
In any case, the fiery breath of the Chinese dragon is once again sweeping through the Far East and beyond seeking to restore the ancient glories of the Middle Kingdom, just as Putin is attempting to emulate the expansionary successes of both his Czarist and Soviet predecessors. The United States, weakened militarily and politically and with a stagnant and heavily over-indebted economy, will not find confronting these twin threats an easy task, as enemies are emboldened and fearful allies drift away.
When we compare china & USA…..structurally china has a great chance to become the world’s greatest super power of all times.However china has to learn from USA A) Morals & Principles & Dharma will what sustain,nourish nations & their ecosystem not the mistake which america made of interests & agenda B) China has to have a neighborhood policy coming up with declaration what it will respect,support,help ……it has to choose not playing ping pong which suits its political system….the confusion which reigns in US of democratic/republican/green party compared to clarity of china’s political system of one party rule,homogenous populace is how it should say these are my friends….these are not my friends it is black or white no grey….running Asia will be difficult for china if it does not come with clarity.C) China has to articulate its principles for hard power when it will intervene like moonroe doctrine…..nation by nation who are its friend it should review the ecosystem also from cradle to grave what each pincode should have & not have.D) China has to start communicating to its citizens it is now a great power & a honor by the (creator,god) of no religion,tribes,scriptures so its citizens has to be serious about this role & countries who are its friend to fix eco system.
Truth always triumph over falsehood….that is why China will be successful compared to America,Vatican,British or Arabs.In case of British/Vatican/American they tampered with truth that is not correct….you can’t say the sun revolved round the earth & later you change your scripture that earth revolved the sun.It is like your political parties & eco system where your rulers will keep shuffling position….offcourse there is liberation waiting for america/british also when principles,truth motivates their intercourse.If you belong to homosapien species a man has to marry a women not a monkey…same way the monkey business of america/british to deal with dictators who are your best friends compared to democratic countries makes the whole thing hypocritical.
We all remember the glory days of China. It didnt include any invasions, massacres, coups or colonies. So how is this a threat now? In fact in all history, the glory days of the west has been tearing pieces of China and impoverishing China. Read this article from Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thought-matters/the-beautiful-country-and_b_13436850.html
The author wrote: "Last month I wrote about Russia, which is in the process not only of forming a Eurasian empire from Siberia to Eastern Europe, "
An empire based on a trade pact? According to this logic, the TTP and TTiP (not to mention NAFTA) makes the United States the far larger and earlier empire.
"but which in a few years and in the face of a fragile economy and a declining and unhealthy population, "
Life expectancy in the US has just fallen. 8 years after the GFC, work force participation in the United States has fallen to 1970s levels.
"has detached pieces of Georgia and Ukraine, turned the Black Sea into a Russian lake, "
The Caribbean, the bulk of the Pacific, and of course the North Atlantic are American lakes.
"implanted defensive and offensive missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave which effectively turns the Baltic Sea into another Russian lake, established a major presence in the Eastern Mediterranean with naval and air bases on the Syrian coast and which regularly violates the air and sea spaces of its neighbors with impunity. "
American missile bases in Poland and several other parts of Europe. Hundreds of American bases all over the world including Guantanamo, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Turkey and more. Double digit American carrier task groups roaming worldwide.
Clearly a case of "do as I say, not as I do".
Sighhh, no, not this guy again, spreading his imperialist, racist crap. The world is waiting for the US to finally pull back behind their 2 oceans. Please leave us alone in Eurasia, we don’t need your meddling, your desastrous wars, your shit products, your dirty GMO food and your (non)culture. Without your interference we will build United Eurasia from Lisbon to Shanghai, a peaceful space of cooperation and mutual respect. You can still play your imperialist games in Latin America. Wouldn’t that be nice?