U.S. judge blocks Trump administration’s ban on new TikTok downloads
The first challenge for President-elect Donald Trump will clearly be to reunite the country, which is terribly scarred and split asunder after a long and vicious campaign. He needs to reach out to those he has so far mocked and insulted, and make them feel he will represent them anyway.
Yes, he was elected by the “deplorables” (the estranged white boys and girls who made too many mistakes in their lives and want a second chance), but he must also get in touch with the other “deplorables” (the minorities, recent immigrants, gay people, single mothers, liberals). The other “deplorables” must feel at some point represented by him; otherwise the country will be very hard to rule.
This is what happened with his two “predecessors” in Italy and Thailand, Silvio Berlusconi and Thaksin Shinawatra. They were elected by a majority of the country, but tried and failed to unite the rest of the country. It happened for complex and different reasons in each country, but these precedents tell us that Trump’s hardest task begins today, by speaking to his opponents. And yet if he fails, unlike in Italy or Thailand, he has recourse to an old trick in the bag of any emperor: prime a large clash that will bring the nation together in fear of the enemy.
Certainly, Trump must also get his economic priorities in order. Does he really want to move back from the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Asia and leave this space open for China to establish its own FTA in the region? This is economics and global strategy intertwined. Again, he may be successful in turning the US economy around, or he could fail, but in either case his foreign policy toward China may go on just the same. If the US economy is stronger, Trump may want to confront what he has named as its biggest and most unfair competitor; if he fails to improve the economy, he may look to China as a scapegoat.
Then on the general foreign agenda, judging from his official statements, he wants to make China an official currency manipulator, thus slap punitive trade sanctions against it. He doesn’t care for Europe, the European currency, nor its economic and political integration or disintegration. He admires Russian president Vladimir Putin. Of course, anything can change. The man is volatile and perhaps whimsical, but he is also a businessman and known to flip-flop, as he did many times in the past. But why should we ignore what he said? Isn’t this the one big thing many newspapers did wrong—not believing that he would do what he said he would do? In this case, beat both Republican and Democratic establishments.
After all, his foreign policy seems pretty simple and linear, unlike Hillary Clinton’s plan. Her plan was to support failing Europe (almost a lost cause), confront Russia and super-pivot to Asia. Each of these three fronts is very complicated, and likely to fail in influencing the other two. In comparison, Trump takes it easy: abandon Europe to its fate, cut a deal with Putin, and get his support in Asia, where he might make China an offer it can’t refuse. We don’t know what the offer would be, but as a plan it is pretty linear—although even dealing with China alone won’t be easy. But aligning with Russia against China, just as Nixon aligned with China against Russia in 1971, could help turn the tables.
Of course, we know even less about what China might do in this case, because it is two “ifs” removed: if Trump wants a showdown with China, and if China reacts or buckles. But another way to look at Trump’s plan on China is that it is basically the same as Hillary’s without the distractions of Europe and with the support of Russia. This substantial consistency makes it more likely.
We don’t know if China is preparing for it. The official reactions have been so far muted, and arguing that Trump will want to do business with China and Beijing is ready for that. This is possibly right. But in case they are wrong, it is worth looking also at the political situation in China presently.
Asia is emerging into a new balance of power. As a recent report by the Carnegie Endowment argued, it is impossible to think in the short- and medium-term that either the US or China could keep a dominant position in East Asia.
Countries of middling power (like Japan and India) or with great ambition (like Vietnam) have reluctantly accepted the dominance of American in the region. However, it is very unlikely that they will tomorrow or in the short term accept the dominance of China in the region. After all, America gained its role in Asia by defeating Japan in World War II, through the war in Korea and the long and exhausting Vietnam War in the 1970’s. Besides, America kept peace and stability in part of Asia during the Cold War, while triggering Asian development since the late 80s with the globalization it led.
Conversely, China has a very different record in the region. It performed badly during its wars in Korea and Vietnam, was basically beaten by the Japanese during the invasion, and tied its own development to American protection and support in the past 30 years. It won only a brief border war with India in 1962, but that left the Indians deeply hurt in their pride and not won over by China’s force. Moreover, unlike Vietnam or Japan, India was never part of the Chinese sphere of influence and the war brought this large country for the first time directly in contact and competition with China.
While now Japan and Vietnam feel they don’t want to go back under China’s wing, the Indians, who have never been under China’s wing, don’t want to become a Chinese vassal. This predicament is all very difficult without taking into consideration the presence of Russia. Russia knows very well that if China were to become the regional hegemon, its control of Siberia could be weakened, and therefore it dreads this possibility.
Years ago, I detailed China’s geographical difficulties. However, on the other hand, it is impossible to rule out the growing weight the Chinese economy has on the region. Infrastructure, trade, and industrial development all are increasingly connected to China’s own growth and development. It is objectively reshaping the political geography of the region and neither the US nor any other regional power has the resources to replace Chinese investment or market potentials. But it is not unilateral: each country under the protection of the United States and with growing economic trade relationships with China also engages in multilateral connections with all its regional neighbors.
A big intricate picture is emerging, similar to that of continental Europe in the mid-19th century, but because of the size of the countries and the number of countries in Asia, the 19th century complications are exacerbated, they are on steroids.
A complex web of ties could be put in order with bilateral agreements led by China and United States. However, this could be difficult because many countries are not simply dependent on China or the United States, but they also have complex relations with other countries in the region.
This won’t necessarily be negative. It could create positive competition in the region in which each country competes with one another. But it could also mean that vindictive rivalries could emerge, pushing toward wars or conflicts. Many have a lot to lose in conflicts and war, but if economies were to slow and social chaos were to emerge, the temptation for a fast resolution of complex issues could grow more tempting.
For its part, if China doesn’t want to become the passive object of others’ plans it needs to make a lot of changes externally, as it is already doing by warming up to neighbors like the Philippines or Malaysia, and internally. Its state-dominated economy and its opaque political structure are two major liabilities. Whatever Trump’s plans, Beijing should act fast.
Excellent Analysis..Lot to Contemplate
Francisco, some inaccuracies here. China did badly in the war against Vietnam but in Korea, I would think they conducted themselves well espceially against the might of the UN and fighting with small arms Unless of course you see the stalemate as a defeat for China.
"A big intricate picture…similar to that of continental Europe in mid-19th century" This observation needs to be studied in depth. For sure the US cannot intervene or impose an order upon so big and powerful as well as the so distinct civilizations of Asia. We are living in a transitional state of affairs where a post-American-era is emerging.
Verte good
Well written, but all very speculative, because nobody knows what or who Trump is, apart from being a racist, lying bully. And, by the way, as for China filling the gap on trade issues: China is already negotiating a region-wide free trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). At the initiative of ASEAN negotiations were started with China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand as partners. I have always felt TPP wasn’t going to fly and it looks like I have been right. RCEP combines a much more logical and natural combination of countries than the weird TPP configuration, which is only there to annoy China.
Jan Willem Blankert
Amsterdam
What in the world do you see that the USA has to offer Russia that would make Putin the great friend and ally against the one country that sided with it against the US and NATO aggression? China was the friend that stuck with Russia against the Beltway Warriors. Both countries won that standoff.
Do the Americans feel that they can slap Russia around and a small tweaking of policy is going to make Russia love them? You are delusional Mr. Sisi. China needs Russia and Russia needs China, neither needs or wants the USA. Both are united against a rogue and well armed threat to world peace and even the survival of the human race. The leaders of both countries would have to be replaced by a drunk like Yeltsin to become a US ally in anything. Neither the Russians nor the Chinese are led by Morons The USA is nothing if not a rabit dog ravaging the world. Well China and Russia are just sitting there waitng for the US to makes it´s move then you will see who loves the USA.
Throughtout this article you are assuming that the US still runs the world. It does not. And your curious take on the Vietnam and Korean Wars are worth mentioning. The US lost in both cases. Korea a stalemate and Vietnam a crushing defeat. during both wars they revealed a crippling flaw in their military. Leadership. Both Generals leading the charge in both wars showed themselves to be extremely limited, incompetant and lacking anycapacity for strategic thinking. From the looks of Iraq and Afghanistan it does not look like much has changed in the Pentagon. Oh and don´t forget that China kicked both the US and Europe out of it´s country many many moons ago,
Completely idiotic article.
There are many highly intelligent and successful people who support Trump for policies that are totally misrepresented by left wing journalists across the world.
My father travelled the world advising Governments, Financial Markets & Central Banks on their future strategies to ensure the continued stability of Global economies.
The Progressive leaders later came into power and made a series of flawed decisions that transferred millions of jobs to the developing world and destroyed Economy after Economy in the Developed world.
Trump will support Free Trade under bi-lateral agreements whereby the parties are motivated to maximise the trade between each other – but not to exceed predetermined trade balances between them.
My father spent time in Beijing helping the Central Bank resolve clearing and settlement issues that were holding back the growth of the Chinese economy.
China is for China First and America and the rest of the Developed World shoulld share the same visions for themselves.
OK I get it, this is ASIA Times, but reality is that Asia doesn’t matter much to America’s Orange Revolution. Trump has an axe to grind domestically. Mr. Sisci mentioned many things that Mr. Trump doesn’t understand, know nor care about. We already know Mr. Trump is focused on trade, not ideology-motivated war, that makes Mexico, Canada, Japan just as big a target as China. This may not work out so badly for China. At least compared to TPP, Trumpism isn’t a step backward.
But it’s way too early to pontificate over Trump era, we have no idea what kind of POTUS Trump will make, he might just want to be head of state and leave the chief executive to someone else. So that leaves Asian policy back to the GOP establishment, which is, again, not a disaster for China.
^this^ exactly, russia has been poked and china security hacked breeched and targeted relentlessly (not that china isnt asking for it) but russia for the most part has been, "media wise" a false painted target to fuel a reason to have voted for two idiots.
and for the most part hillary was all for the FEMA and order of anti-unity as much as trump.
trump will be far more quiet comparisonwise but hillary was insane . so is trump .
the sad array of truth is time over time relations wise, is now money over money.
two children acting as if money solves world problems. but blame the parents trumps dad: Yes the times were a part of the idiodic trends that made $ however its the fact hes still in that deep mindset of "people are scaled as rank and worth". He will run this country like a business. not a countryunitiy much like socialist trade or playing the stocks or "Big bank little bank". Him pounding into china and russia for terms is just setting up his own empire for after 4 years. it will be based on re-writing trade laws after war or negotiations. all while he dances and sings and makes a complete Ass of himself. doing the showboat with the donkey is somthing that has saved his own ass and somthing his father Taught him best.
If i am Putin i will be thinking when my chips were down after US sanctions who was the one who bailed me ….it was the chinese…Nations are run by 3 laws Moral Law,economic & military law & crusaders law.
Let’s look at the friends of America Japanese & Koreans & Arabians …trump has said he will rescind the contract with them…will you need a crusader as your friend when it suits him he will keep you…once the Job is done he will throw you into a garbage.
On other hand Indians always prioritize Israel & Russia as their natural friends …for their ability & capability they were the only country who secured them during their horrible time of 1971 or 1999…..same way chinese may be many things but they will not be unfaithful to their allies North Korea or Pakistan.
The crusader ( aka the pope or americano) has no rules,ethics,morality the Indians will tell Putin not to prop up the americans now….since he was responsible for the downfall of soviet russia in first place.Let the crusader pay the price of Karma.
What will Putin or Russia do after 4 years someone like Clinton becomes the President of America …….then they will feed him to the chinese……it is a great opportunity for Putin to say the friendship between china & russia is strong……he should be careful when he deals with americans,pope or the germans.
Looking, according to my opinion a present situation a happened in USA after last elections and recently victory of Donald Trump, this non-separated part of stuggle between two wings of americanian elita. Hillary this traditional representator of global capitalism of transnational companies and corporations, and Trump representing so-called national capitalism, that want to be concentrated on re-solving olf interior problems of USA. Together with it, from vision of worker class and poor stratas of USA population – not Hillary and not Trump – this not alternative to hard social and economic situation of USA in result of non-stoped world financial and economic crisis. A true solution for workers and poors placing in worker class revolution.
Absolutely the opposite, time is on China’s side. Trump has about 50 axes to grind domestically and couple more internationally (ISIS, Mexico, China, Japan, maybe even Canada). China has 4 more years of peace, 8 more if we are lucky.