Henceforth, preserving Erdogan’s own power (and life itself) will be his principal preoccupation. This will make him at once more subject to various influences, and even more irascible.
But, henceforth, regardless of the substance of his moves, these can only be weaker. Erdogan’s support for his favorites in former Syria must decline. Mere non-interference will be the best he can do for them. Even his war on the Kurds must weaken. In short, he is riding on a course of events the driving forces of which he can no longer affect. With every passing day, he begins to resemble Assad – the plaything of others.
For those who deal with Turkey, Erdogan’s growing hunger for support opens opportunities. Through his Saudi creditors, the U.S. can press him to cut all traffic of food as well as arms and people to Sunni rebel areas. While it would be disastrous for the U. S. to bargain away any support for the Kurds, it might well promise to use its good offices to help draw fair borders for the new Kurdistan.
For any good to come from Turkey’s self imposed disaster, U.S policy makers would have to open their minds to the reality that current maps no longer reflect the region’s realities, and, yes, that all of their “schools” should take a lesson from the Putin School Of International Affairs.