For three months running, U.S. manufacturers’ new orders excluding transportation have shown negative growth year-on-year. The disappointing factory orders print this morning (-0.4% for April vs. an expected -0.1%) translates into a 7% year-on-year decline for factory orders excluding transportation. That’s the combined effect of the oil investment bust, the strong dollar, and the cautious consumer. Asia Unhedged has been pessimistic about the U.S. economy since inception, but it looks worse than even we expected.
We haven’t had negative year-on-year factory orders data ex-transportation except during recessions (2001 and 2008-2009).