By Norman A. Bailey

At least the meeting wasn’t held in Iran’s Holy City of Qom as the Munich summit was held in the birthplace of the Nazi Party. The terms of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal are also more artfully crafted to sound convincing, but consider the following:

-Military facilities are not mentioned and are thus not part of any final agreement.

-Spent fuel and heavy water are to be “sent out of the country” but no country is specified.  Iraq, Syria and Russia are all out of the country.

-The strongest language on “tough” inspections is meaningless if the country involved simply ignores the provisions, as Iran has been doing for years and North Korea before it, which happily signed a similar “agreement.”

But most telling of all is a sentence from the State Department communique, saying that an Iranian nuclear “breakout” is estimated to be in two or three months.  Come again?  If accurate, that means that it will happen before there is any final agreement on June 30, at which point the Iranians can laugh all the way to their first bomb.

In the case of the U.S., any final deal will be an executive agreement and Obama obviously has no intention of submitting it to Congress for approval.  He also has the authority under existing legislation to suspend all sanctions he wants for successive 120 day periods.  Congress can pass legislation demanding that it be sent the agreement for approval but he will veto it.  Whether Congress will pass any anti-deal legislation over his veto is questionable.

Thus, there are only two outcomes at this point:  either Iran reaches breakout before June 30th, in which case no deal will be signed or a deal will be signed and Iran will honor only those parts it wishes to.  Either way, Iran will become a nuclear country, as did North Korea, under the noses of the so-called “great powers”. And that means that all the major regional players in the Middle East will want their own nuclear arsenals, which some of them can simply buy, or Israel will attack by itself.

The latter is unlikely.  Most will not remember that the larger bunker-buster bombs ordered by Israel from the U.S. were on their way and had reached the Indian Ocean when Obama ordered them back.

We can compare this situation with the additional marine reinforcements requested by the U.S. embassy in Tehran when rumors started of a pending mob attack.  The marines had reached the U.S. base in the Azores when Carter ordered them back. The result was the embassy occupied and its employees imprisoned for months.  In this case, the results will be much more serious.

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Norman A. Bailey

Norman A Bailey is the author of numerous books and articles and recipient of several honorary degrees, medals and awards and two orders of knighthood. He also teaches economic statecraft at The Institute of World Politics and has experience on the staff of the National Security Council at the White House, in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and in business, consulting and finance. He is professor emeritus in the National Security Studies Center, University of Haifa, and a columnist...

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