The Chicago MNI Business Barometer came out at 46.3 in March, barely above the 45.8 reading in April, indicating more contraction. The consensus estimate called for a recovery to 51.7. That’s another miss for CCC (the Consensus Cargo Cult).


We’ve noted that the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index (the difference between consensus estimates and actual) is at the lowest level since 2009. The 3-month average of the gap between the consensus and the Chicago manufacturing gauge is at the worst EVER. That’s worse than any time during the financial crisis.


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