India is pushing to indigenize its defense capabilities with plans for a third aircraft carrier, underscoring Delhi’s strategic concern of a two-front naval war against Pakistan and China in the Indian Ocean.
Naval News reported India is considering ordering a third aircraft carrier based on its INS Vikrant design. The indigenization plan includes local production of arresting and restraining gear for launching aircraft, both previously sourced from Russia. India aims to have three of each system ready by 2028, the report said.
Naval News notes that Precision Approach Radar for aircraft carriers will face an import ban in 2031, adding urgency for India to develop the technology indigenously.
Meanwhile, various parts of the MiG-29K carrier-based fighter will be made in India, including the Multi-Function Display, Integrated Standby Instrument System, tires, ground support equipment, chaff and flares.
India is also bidding to become self-sufficient in repairing the MiG-29K landing gear, self-protection jammer, oxygen generation system and Optical Locator Station.
In addition, Naval News says India plans to acquire six additional P-8I Poseidon long-range maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), while India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is developing medium-range MPAs based on the Airbus C-295.
India’s plans for a third aircraft carrier may face the same challenges as those of its long-delayed INS Vikrant, its first entirely indigenously-made aircraft carrier.
In August 2022, Asia Times outlined the difficulties encountered over the 13 years it took India to construct the INS Vikrant, ranging from technical issues, funding and purchasing challenges, and corruption.
India requires three aircraft carriers to ensure continuous security on its maritime borders. Two carriers would be deployed at sea while one would undergo maintenance and refit.
Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL) says a larger 55,000-ton version of the INS Vikrant design could be completed within five years.
However, plans for a third carrier could face delays as the Indian Ministry of Defense is currently focused on advancing the development of nuclear-powered submarines.
Several variables will affect and guide the scope of India’s aircraft carrier ambitions. In a September 2023 article for the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Sarabjeet Parmar says that plans for a third Indian carrier may quickly reignite debate between policymakers and defense planners on costs and operational efficiency.
Parmar notes that the Indian Navy’s previous fleet expansion plans had to be broken up into several phases due to a lack of funding and training facilities for officers and sailors.
However, he says that the fast-evolving security landscape vis-à-vis China and Pakistan underscores India’s current requirement for a strong and well-rounded military, with aircraft carriers playing a crucial role.
The Indian Navy focuses on a carrier-centric sea control naval operational concept, with a focus on establishing sea control or denial in more than one area.
In fighting a two-front naval conflict between Pakistan and China, India can implement a sea control strategy against Pakistan and a sea denial strategy against China, with aircraft carriers playing a vital role in both.
In an article for the Indian Naval War College Journal, Sanjay Sachdeva says that the Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers could provide land attack capability along with power projection and blockade enforcement in a conflict with Pakistan.
However, Sachdeva cautions that geography favors Pakistan as it can quickly re-route maritime trade routes closer to its littorals.
In a March 2021 article for The National Interest (TNI), Robert Beckhusen notes that Pakistan has several means to attack India’s aircraft carriers using near-undetectable submarines and shore-based anti-ship missile batteries.
Beckhusen says that India’s small deck carriers would in a conflict have to maneuver close to Pakistan’s shores and thus come within the range of Pakistani shore-based anti-ship missiles and aircraft.
He adds that the threat of Pakistani aircraft could force India’s carriers to dedicate a large proportion of their air wings to fleet air defense, limiting their striking power against Pakistani targets.
In a War on the Rocks article this month, Prashant Suhas and Christopher Colley mention that while China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) is qualitatively and quantitatively ahead of the Indian Navy, it is not yet geared for a conflict in the Indian Ocean.
The writers mention that while India still has the home field advantage in the Indian Ocean, China is slowly addressing its disadvantages, namely the lack of resupply bases and inadequate air cover for its warships operating in the region.
Noting India’s home-field advantage in the Indian Ocean, Yang Zhen notes in a November 2021 Cfist.net article that India asserts control over the region using three concentric “fences,” with aircraft carriers critical for its sea denial strategy.
Zhen describes the first fence as the “total control zone,” consisting of the sea area up to 500 nautical miles off India’s coasts. The second fence is the “medium control zone,” defined as sea areas within 500-1,000 nautical miles. The third fence is the “soft control zone,” which consists of the rest of the Indian Ocean.
He says that the Indian Navy views sea denial as an effective strategy for securing the medium control zone and preventing potential adversaries from reaching the total control zone.
Carrier-based aircraft can control 800 x 1,000 kilometers of sea and airspace while four carrier battlegroups can control nearly one million square kilometers of sea space. Zhen adds that aircraft carriers are effective as electronic warfare platforms and for mounting land attack operations.