China’s just not that into you

Just for fun, I asked my Facebook friends to guess the ratio of Chinese exports to China’s gross domestic product (GDP). They are all avid consumers of news.

The average guess put China’s US exports at 30% of GDP, with a standard deviation of 22% (see chart). The actual number is less than 3%.

This admittedly unscientific sample overestimated China’s economic exposure to the United States, that is, by an order of magnitude. My friends’ guesses are displayed in this histogram: