The EU is nervous about a Trump presidency’s hostile policy towards Iran and threats to destroy the nuclear deal.
There has been a barrage of articles from European Council on Foreign Relations, Carnegie Europe, Deutsche Welle and others issuing warnings not to unilaterally dismantle the multilateral nuclear deal. Otherwise, the EU and others in the P5+1 will deem American deals as unreliable and break ranks to go their own way with Iran.
EU, China and Russia coalesce
Already there is discussion of how remaining members of the P5+1 can hedge themselves to salvage the deal if such a scenario does occur. In addition to European leaders issuing a statement on November 14 to reiterate their “resolute commitment” to the deal, there are also proposals to work with China and Russia to salvage key nuclear restrictions by offering meaningful sanctions relief to Iran, such as lifting European banking sanctions and oil embargo, and protecting European companies against enforcement of American sanctions aimed at prohibiting business with Iran.
The US previously tried to isolate Iran in 1996 by threatening US sanctions on foreign companies that developed Tehran’s oil and gas industry. As a counter measure the EU forbade companies from complying with the sanctions, and eventually the US backed down from enforcing them.
As a further insurance policy if the deal is scuttled, ideas have also been floated to quickly resolve banking and regulatory hurdles now faced by companies seeking to execute major deals already made with Iran.
The Europeans are mainly grappling with uncertainty surrounding a few key issues with the incoming Trump administration. Besides the Iran nuclear deal and possible US military action, they are also concerned with a US trade war with China and the demise of NATO.
As such they are forging their own path to decrease tensions with Russia, and deepening economic cooperation with China. On November 23-24, Germany convened a Sino-European business conference—“Hamburg Summit. China meets Europe”—to discuss ways Beijing and Brussels can cooperate to weather unpredictable US trade and foreign policy.
Berlin for one sees China as a reliable partner in global trade, and wants to push for further alignment between China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiatives and EU’s existing regional institutions and programs, as well as bilateral investments. It wants to use its influence in Brussels to include China for joint investments in third countries on the emerging European-Chinese economic corridor in Eurasia, and sees Sino-EU cooperation to create wealth and stability in the region is feasible without a visible US contribution.
Iran, China and Russia integrate
Iran likewise foresees continuing its Eurasia integration with China and Russia without US contribution, due to the extension of US sanctions for another 10 years.
Since geography matters, Iran is very important from the Eurasian perspective. It is a littoral state on both the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, and an important source of energy for Asian giants such as China and India. Indeed, Iran has already overtaken Saudi Arabia as the top supplier of oil to India.
It is also key for both Russia and China’s Eurasian integration projects, especially on China’s OBOR as a strategic hub in the Middle East and Central and South Asia.
In fact, some of Trump’s advisors are considering having the US join the AIIB to become a stakeholder and participate in OBOR projects, and on November 30 helped launch the inaugural US-China Belt and Road Forum. How the US can de-conflict its desire to potentially cooperate on China’s OBOR and yet isolate the key node of Iran remains to be seen.
But should the new administration decide to oppose or ignore the OBOR, and adopt a combative stance towards Iran, then this would likely impel the EU, Iran, China and Russia to quicken the pace of Eurasian integration.
Which brings us back to the Cloverleaf world.
As this author had previously discussed, in 1581 German Pastor Heinrich Bunting portrayed the world that mattered was comprised of the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa, with each depicted as a cloverleaf. They converged in Jerusalem, and the rest of the world was irrelevant.
With the US increasingly focused on domestic infrastructure and job creation, scaling back on its military presence overseas, and absence from the Eurasian integration project, we may indeed witness a wider US-EU rift.
Along with this, a return to the Cloverleaf map as the likely depiction of the unfolding global geopolitical architecture of the 21st century.
Many have talked at length about the emergence of disagreements between the EU and the new incoming American administration when Trump goes into the White House in January of the coming year, that is to say if he is going to pursue the foreign policies he advocated during his presidential campaign. At the top of that seems to be the stance regarding the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump, is in favour of continuing the animosity towards Iran threatening to pullout US from the deal , and to continue the illegal imposition of sanctions (economic aggression) for another ten years and may be more in blatant violation to the signed nuclear deal and the spirit of trying to achieve peace on our planet.
What is striking, is to see that Europe with its history of planting the seeds of democracy hundreds or thousands of years ago, Europe of the French Revolution fought for achieving "liberity, equality and fraternity", Europe with its profound cultural heritage and the renaissance you see and smell in every corner when visiting its cities, to see it subservient in so many ways whether on domestic level of foreign policy to the wishes and the dictates of the US. The exceptional country and people, that Obama and other American leaders want us to believe. Its exceptionality lies in the extermination of millions of America indigenous inhabitants the Red Indians and wiping out their heritage, culture and building settlements on their land they have confiscated. Its exceptionality lies in the fact that US wants to dominate the whole universe not only the planet that we live on. Its exceptionality lies in the belief that everything that happens on this planet called earth even if it is thousands of miles from America falls within its national security.
The question that always comes to mind is how long will it take Europe to wake up to the realities and see to what extent it has been used and abused by the US? How long will it take it to realize that the NATO has become a pivotal tool for achieving the strategic interest of the US which is not necessarily coincide with the interest of the countries of Europe and its people? Up until when the economy and politics of Europe will be held captive to the White House?
When will Europe awake from it slumber? Will the coming of Trump to the White House will produce that effect? Guess we have to wait and see.