In the push and pull of contemporary US-China relations, few moves reveal more about shifting power balances than the quiet rejection of a proffered gift. On December 8, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would permit Nvidia to export its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, replete with a 25% fee to the US Treasury.
This was billed as a pragmatic compromise: a way to keep American firms competitive in the world’s largest AI market while denying Beijing access to even more advanced models like the Blackwell series. Trump framed it as a win for national security and economic leverage, allowing sales only to “approved customers” vetted by the US Commerce Department.
Yet Beijing’s response has been cautious and calculated. Regulators convened emergency meetings with major firms, discussed potential limits on access such as requiring approvals and justifications for purchases over local alternatives and signaled a preference for domestic options, exposing the challenges in Washington’s tech diplomacy.
Far from drawing China closer, the gesture appears to have reinforced its drive toward technological independence, turning what might have been a concession into further impetus for self-reliance.
The backdrop to this episode is a trade war that has evolved from blunt tariffs into a sophisticated battle over supply chains and innovation. Earlier this year, Trump imposed a 20% “fentanyl tariff” on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing on opioid precursors, later halved to 10% in October after talks in Busan yielded promises of stricter export controls on those chemicals.
China, in turn, paused new restrictions on rare earth minerals – vital for producing everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets – for a year, while issuing general export licenses for materials like gallium and germanium.
These steps, alongside resumed purchases of US-grown soybeans, suggested a fragile detente. But the chip decision reveals deeper fault lines. US export controls, tightened since 2022, have long aimed to starve China’s AI ambitions by limiting access to high-performance semiconductors.
Nvidia, once reliant on China for up to a quarter of its revenue, adapted by designing downgraded versions like the H20. Even those faced bans in September, forcing firms such as Tencent and ByteDance to pivot to domestic options from Chinese tech giants Huawei and Alibaba.
Trump’s H200 approval was meant to thread the needle: unlock sales worth billions for Nvidia, fund US priorities through the surcharge and potentially extract further concessions on fentanyl or trade imbalances.
Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, met with Trump in early December, expressing cautious optimism about resuming shipments. Yet reports indicate Beijing is weighing limited access to the H200, potentially through vetted uses and prioritizing local providers, while private demand from Chinese firms remains robust, highlighting how export controls continue to carry backfire risks.
Rather than crippling Chinese innovation, the controls have fostered ingenuity. Companies are optimizing algorithms to squeeze more performance from restricted hardware, reducing the need for cutting-edge imports. This is not mere defiance; it is a calculated strategy to build an ecosystem resilient to external pressure.
Consider DeepSeek, the Hangzhou-based AI startup that has emerged as a quiet disruptor. Founded in 2023 by hedge fund veteran Liang Wenfeng, DeepSeek has released models claiming strong performance relative to global leaders, trained efficiently on restricted hardware at low cost through innovations like mixture-of-experts architectures.
Backed by state-linked funds, the firm exemplifies how restrictions have spurred efficient, adaptive AI development that appeals worldwide, including in the Global South.
This pivot extends beyond startups. Huawei’s latest chips now power AI training at scales rivaling Nvidia’s older generations, bolstered by SMIC’s advances in mass production. Beijing’s Politburo, in its December 8 economic meeting, reiterated calls for “core technology breakthroughs,” channeling billions into semiconductors.
The result is a domestic market where Nvidia’s share has plummeted and firms such as Alibaba report seamless transitions to homegrown alternatives. Analysts note the irony: Trump’s “art of the deal” dangled chips amid ongoing debates over China’s acceptance.
For the US, the implications are stark. Export controls were sold as a firewall against Chinese military AI and economic espionage, yet they risk isolating American firms instead.
The US Congress, already fractious, saw bipartisan senators introduce a “Safe Chips” bill on December 4 to block such easing for 30 months, citing security risks. But blocking sales outright could accelerate Huawei’s global rise, as seen in its growing footprint in Europe and Africa.
Trump’s approach – dangling tech carrots amid tariff sticks – assumes Beijing values access over autonomy. History suggests otherwise. China’s 2010 rare earth embargo on Japan spurred Tokyo’s diversification, much as today’s chip curbs are doing for semiconductors.
Beijing, meanwhile, is treading carefully. Rejecting the H200 outright could invite Trump’s retaliation, like renewed fentanyl tariffs or entity list expansions. Instead, it has opted for graduated restrictions, buying time to scale domestic production.
This mirrors President Xi Jinping’s doctrine of “dual circulation”: fortifying internal markets while engaging globally on more equal terms. By framing US tech as a security risk and echoing Washington’s own rhetoric, China justifies its barriers without alienating partners.
The broader geopolitical lesson is one of unintended momentum. US controls have bought time, slowing China’s AI ascent by perhaps two years, per certain think tank estimates. But they have also seeded a rival innovation engine, leaner and more adaptive.
As the H200 situation remains fluid, with potential for limited sales amid China’s self-reliance push, the US faces a choice: double down on isolation, ceding moral high ground in the global tech race, or recalibrate toward alliances that include Europe and partners such as Australia in setting joint standards.
Trump’s H200 gambit, while perhaps well intentioned, highlights the peril of treating technology as a unilateral lever. In the end, the real masterstroke belongs to Beijing, which has turned constraint into capability, one optimized algorithm at a time.
This was predictable. The US is leaving China no choice. It CANNOT allow itself to be blackmailed on something this important. It is a Manhattan Project moment for China.