US-China war will come down to protecting or destroying Guam

The Pacific island of Guam is one of America’s most strategically important overseas territories, holding some of the US Air Force’s most critical military assets and staging many of its most crucial operations in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

As such, Guam’s strategic positioning and prominence to US force projection make the island a prime target for key Asian adversaries such as China and North Korea. Both Beijing and Pyongyang have recently developed ballistic missile capabilities specifically to be able to reach and penetrate Guam’s defenses.

To shield Guam from these rising threats, Washington has finalized plans for an Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense (EIAMD) system to protect the island. By fully converting Guam into a forward-operating base, the Pentagon can use EIAMD to combat rising threats in the Indo-Pacific while continuing to bolster its regional assets.

A shield named EIAMD

The EIAMD is built to serve as a multi-layered air defense system. Plans for better fortifying Guam have been ongoing since at least August 2022, when the US Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) top leadership provided details of upgrades to protect the island’s forward assets.

Under the plan, Guam will be covered by a 360-layered EIAMD, with 16 locations on the island used for various batteries and interceptors. Both the US Army and MDA were awarded the contract to develop and deploy the US$8 billion EIAMD to Guam.

The Aegis, Standard Missile 3 and six missile interceptors (SM-3 & SM-6) will reportedly be incorporated into the system.

Along with various missile interceptors, the Pentagon is considering deploying six radar systems to help track and plot ballistic missile interceptions. According to the Arms Control Association, EIAMD’s implementation will require 400 construction contractors and an additional 2,300 permanent and civilian personnel to operate the system.

Supplementing Aegis within EIAMD, the US Army and MDA plan on including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), the Typhon Mid-Range Capability System (MRC) and the Enduring Shield Indirect Fire Protection System. Deploying the various systems will help support the lower layers of Guam’s air defenses.

In a May 2023 article, Asia Times noted that Guam would also receive a disaggregated Aegis Ashore system, which could be installed at Anderson Air Force Base. Furthermore, Guam has strategic topography, from which interceptors could be well fired.

Despite the numerous systems that can supplement Guam’s defense, integration will pose many challenges. For example, integrating key sensor fusion across the different domains of each missile defense system will be needed to keep EIAMD in sync.

Guam’s strategic positioning allows for rapid reinforcements if any conflict were to break out in the Indo-Pacific, including over Taiwan, as Guam is situated only a few thousand kilometers away from key allies and American military locations in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia.

Guam’s Anderson Air Force Base is crucial for maintaining US strike packages and capabilities. B1 Lancers and B2 Spirit Bombers are stationed there for critical missions, including US military operations in the Middle East during the spring and summer of 2025. Anderson’s runways are modified to support all aircraft in the US military’s inventory.

At the same time, Guam is the central hub for supplementing US naval fleets such as the Fifth and Seventh in their areas of operations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, respectively. The Defense Logistics Agency’s regional headquarters is also located in Guam to oversee logistical operations in the Asian Pacific.

The island is also home to Naval Base Guam, along with a Marine Corps base known as Camp Blaz. Currently, 22,000 military personnel, contractors and civilian dependents are located on the island, with stated plans to increase numbers by 50% to 33,000 by fiscal year 2027.

EIAMD vs China

In a potential conflict with China, American wargame planners have calculated that Beijing’s growing ballistic missile arsenal will heavily target Guam.

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) would likely utilize long-range Dongfeng (DF) ballistic missiles to target military bases in the region, especially those located on Guam. The PLARF would almost certainly fire the Ying-Ji (YJ) 21 hypersonic missile and DF-27 at Guam’s crucial military assets.

For Chinese ally North Korea, its strategic rocket force (KPASF) could deploy the Hwasong-15, the Hwasong-17 and as many as 20 different types of ballistic missiles against US forces in Guam.

The Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17 are both capable of delivering nuclear weapons and can reach the continental US. US military planners would have time to counter Hwasong-type missiles as they are not perfected to re-enter the atmosphere.

Guam’s EAIMD is thus a much-needed layered air defense system to protect Guam’s critical assets. While China and North Korea’s ballistic missile capabilities are improving, so too are America’s defenses for a potential battle of seismic implications and consequences for the Indo-Pacific.

Julian McBride is a defense analyst and contributing editor at 19FortyFive.