Recently, Dhaka and Tokyo have been discussing possible defense cooperation, marking the development of a potential new chapter in the bilateral history. According to one news report, they have “reached an understanding in principle to sign an agreement on the transfer of defense equipment and technology.”
For Japan, this ought to enhance the security and deterrence capabilities of like-minded countries, not only Bangladesh. And it brings a new dimension to Bangladesh’s foreign policy.
Under this pending agreement, Tokyo is to be empowered to supply military equipment and share technologies with Dhaka. The agreement is built on a memorandum of cooperation signed in 2023 and it promises joint research and capacity-building, in areas including maritime surveillance and cybersecurity, alongside hardware transfers.
This development has come at a time when Japan is seeking to take an influential share in world dynamics, and Bangladesh is diversifying its military procurement. It’s worth examining the treaty’s strategic calculations and the likely implications.
Transformation from ODA to OSA:
Not all foreign aid is the same. While official security assistance (OSA) refers to military development-based projects, official development assistance (ODA) broadly denotes social and economic development projects.
Bangladesh is already deeply linked with Japanese ODA, with only a shallow link observed in OSA. However, Japan’s vigilant focus on OSA – which rose from about US$13.8 million in 2023 to US$34.6 million in 2024 to about US$56 million for the 2025 fiscal year – highlights a potentiality in Japan-Bangladesh defense relations.
Tokyo’s vision & the multilinear dependency of Bangladesh
Tokyo’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) attracts the northern rim of the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, where Bangladesh is a key stakeholder whose higher maritime capabilities help secure the sea lines of communication but require regional stability.
The greater the presence of Japanese ships and advanced systems in the Bay of Bengal with the collaboration of Bangladesh, the more Dhaka’s fortified position will be established in the northern rim of the Indian Ocean.
Beyond security development, Japan can accelerate its partnership in manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology transfer, boosting its soft power and connectivity with Bangladesh. Their defense cooperation, like defense equipment supply and joint research, gradually connects Bangladesh with Japan, showcasing a fresh dynamic in the Bay of Bengal area.
Beijing is Dhaka’s dominant military appliance supplier. Bangladesh was the second-largest recipient of Chinese arms exports (around 11%), from 2019-2023, when China exported over 70% of Bangladesh’s arms.
But Dhaka is reshaping its military procurement policy, concentrating on Japan, Russia, China, Turkey, Pakistan, and others, to connect with everyone, advancing towards the policy of “reaching out to everybody.” Tokyo’s willingness to sign a formal defense agreement fits into that policy.
Future preparedness and cybersecurity
The next fight won’t be confined to guns and traditional weapons. Coastal radar, sensors and communications will play significant roles. The defense agreement between Japan and Bangladesh will enhance Bangladesh’s capabilities to exert better surveillance in the Bay of Bengal area, on one edge of the Indo-Pacific region.
Though less publicized, an effective weapon to make closer relations between Japan and Bangladesh is cybersecurity. As South Asia is prone to experiencing cyber threats, Japanese support fortifies Bangladesh in soft security development.
But, in the long run, it increases its dependency on Japan in many aspects, including satellite monitoring, data encryption, government systems and financial institutions, raising concerns for China and other stakeholders due to security concerns about their information.
Maritime security and ease of geopolitical concern
This agreement not only elevates Bangladesh’s prestige but also helps secure Bangladesh’s supply chain (accounting for 90% external trade and 100% of energy import) through the Bay of Bengal Area. It enhances Dhaka’s maritime domain awareness, upscales the capability to monitor ship movement and guards its exclusive economic zone.
Though concerned, India also sees advantages from the Japan-Bangladesh defense treaty because Japan is deeply aligned with India’s policy through QUAD, bilateral and multilateral interest sharing and Indo-Pacific policy determination. Ultimately, Bangladesh’s diversification of its dependency beyond China is good for India.
Furthermore, the US is also eager to retain its military procurement share in Bangladesh on account of Dhaka’s geopolitical advantages – but the high cost and Bangladesh’s limited experience of involvement with US military equipment make it tougher to make an immediate link. Bangladesh’s involvement with Japan, a QUAD member, could help to ease the US’s geopolitical concern.
In sum, this new agreement complicates China’s long-standing influence on Bangladesh’s military equipment procurement, eases the concerns of India and the US and aligns Bangladesh with Japan.
Mehedi Hasan (mhmehedi505@gmail.com) is a Dhaka-based researcher and analyst.
India likes this? lol.