Turkish media recently claimed that Russia offered to buy back the S-400 surface-to-air missile system that it delivered to the country in 2019, reportedly to then resell them to other clients.
Turkey is supposedly receptive to the idea as it seeks to end its spat with the US over the long-range system adept at detecting, tracking and destroying aircraft, drones and missiles, and is developing a domestic analogue to replace the system.
Polish media added that “Ankara still does not actively use them. They were never integrated into NATO, their missiles are already halfway through their shelf life, and maintenance costs pose a burden.”
Meanwhile, Indian media suggested the deal could lead to the country finally receiving its delayed S-400s, which would first need to be upgraded by Russia before likely being deployed to put China and Pakistan in check.
While neither Russia nor Turkey has confirmed the report, it is credible enough to be taken seriously – for now, at least. Russia can’t spare any S-400s from the Ukraine war front for export, Turkey has since largely reconciled with the US and no longer needs the systems, while India is eager to receive more as soon as possible.
Each party’s interests are more urgent than ever because: Russia needs to regain its rapidly declining role in the global arms market, as most of its production has been redirected from export to the front since 2022; the new TRIPP Corridor creates the basis for a US-Turkish military-strategic partnership along Russia’s entire southern periphery – provided the S-400-related US sanctions are lifted; and spring’s Indo-Pakistan clashes made air defense a renewed priority for New Delhi.
The original reason behind Turkey’s import of the S-400s is no longer relevant. At the time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan deeply distrusted the US over its – at minimum – indirect role in failed coup in mid-2016, which is why he agreed to this air defense deal a year later.
Turkiye was also strongly opposed to direct US military support for Kurdish groups in Syria that Ankara designates as terrorists. After the launch of the TRIPP Corridor and the rise to power of Jolani and Sharaa, however, those earlier imperatives have largely become outdated.
The stage is therefore set for a grand deal between the US, Turkey, Russia and India – at least in theory and only tacitly in the case of US-Russia, US-India and Turkey-India. But it remains to be seen whether a deal will materialize.
Some forces could still torpedo the deal, chiefly hardliners in the US and Russia, who might respectively object to the principle of a NATO ally selling military equipment back to Moscow and Russia buying back a weapons system that it sold to a NATO ally that now funds Ukraine.
Each side’s hardliners would need to be sidelined for the deal to go through, and it can’t be assumed that either US President Donald Trump or Russian President Vladimir Putin can do so, given the current political conditions amid escalating US-Russian tensions.
Furthermore, the US is taking a hard line against India, now led personally by Trump, which lowers the odds it will agree to Turkey indirectly supplying India with Russia’s S-400s – especially after Trump just punitively tariffed India for continuing to buy Russian oil.
Accordingly, while the details of this proposed arrangement align well with each side’s interests, political factors, including the calculations of American and Russian hardliners, could ultimately ruin any chance of the deal.
If political will exists the US and Russia highest levels, then they should encourage their respective media surrogates to articulate the inherent strategic benefits to help persuade hardliners to reconsider their resistance.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
I thought both India and Turkiye can’t stand each other? This is because of India’s anti-Muslim stance and the ill treatment of their minority while Turkiye sides with Pakistan over India?
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The last sentence of this article is severely misguided and uninformed. The US government, including the President, cant dictate to the media what to cover or how to cover it. That phenomenon only exists in outright dictatorships like Russia, China, and North Korea.