From an abstract threat to an existential challenge, climate change has accelerated across the planet – wrecking ecosystems, sinking social structures and destroying livelihoods. Among the most vulnerable nations, Pakistan stands out as acutely exposed.
The 2022 floods – arguably the worst in Pakistan’s history – submerged a third of the country, affected 33 million people, caused 1,700 deaths and resulted in US$30 billion worth of damages and economic losses, according to the World Bank.
Islamabad has rapidly climbed up global climate vulnerability indexes. In 2020, GermanWatch’s Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan fifth among countries most affected by extreme climatic events. Pakistan now tops that list, largely due to exceptionally high relative economic losses during the June-September 2022 monsoon season.
A climate catastrophe looms. In the current rainy season alone, climate-related disasters have killed 802 people, including 203 children – most of them in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Infrastructure, crops and livestock have also suffered widespread damage.
Glacial melt, driven by rising temperatures, has led to the creation of thousands of glacial lakes in Pakistan’s northern areas. These lakes pose the risk of sudden glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can unleash millions of cubic meters of water and debris within hours—threatening the lives and livelihoods of 7 million people in KP and Gilgit-Baltistan.
While Pakistan often highlights “climate injustice” and the slow disbursement of green financing—receiving just $2.8 billion of $10 billion pledged by international donors—it has shown little political will to address its own governance failures or to scale up climate adaptation.
For example, the UN-backed $37 million GLOF-II project has faced criticism for failing to enhance disaster preparedness and deliver early warning systems, partially because the funds were allegedly misused. Other projects have been plagued by institutional incompetence and corruption, or eroded in value due to rampant deforestation.
At COP27, the creation of a loss and damage fund was hailed as a quantum leap in climate finance. But as of June this year, only $789 million had been pledged by 27 countries – a minuscule fraction of the hundreds of billions required annually.
While developed countries bear historic responsibility for the climate crisis, Pakistan cannot afford to sleepwalk into climate catastrophe. The government must urgently address its failings and gaps, and urgently adopt a more proactive stance.
To sustainably confront climate change, Pakistan must not rely solely on international climate relief financing. Rather, it needs to mobilize domestic resources and reform its climate governance structures.
Rather than shifting blame entirely onto richer nations, Pakistan should encourage more private investment in renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure that boost productivity and cut emissions.
The country must accelerate the rollout of risk-sharing mechanisms such as crop insurance, promote green bond issuance and explore alternative climate finance models such as debt-for-climate swaps.
Pakistan’s energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, including oil, gas and coal. Circular debt in the energy sector now poses a dual threat – undermining both climate adaptation and economic stability – and may rival terrorism and insurgency as the country’s most pressing challenge.
Given Pakistan’s fragile economy and limited foreign exchange reserves, dependence on fossil fuels may be unavoidable in the short term. But it must be treated as a transitional phase—one that leads toward a cleaner, more resilient energy future.
Addressing systemic inefficiencies—such as the low tax-to-GDP ratio, power transmission losses, and poorly targeted subsidies—can help free up fiscal space to support climate initiatives. Accountability and institutional reform must be part of this effort.
Fixing systemic inefficiencies – such as the low tax-to-GDP ratio, power transmission and distribution losses, and poorly targeted subsidy regimes – could help free up the fiscal space to finance climate initiatives. Accountability and institutional reform must be part of this effort.
In the decades ahead, Pakistan is projected to remain among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country’s high exposure to torrential rain, floods, cloudbursts and GLOFs demands a united, nonpartisan national response.
Tying climate action to climate injustice—while letting cosmetic measures stand in for real progress—is a dangerous distraction. Experts note that while adaptation financing has dropped from 40% to just 10% of total climate finance in the past decade, new tax measures are being disingenously framed as climate mitigation efforts, further eroding public trust.
The monsoon, once a harbinger of joy and renewal, now brings pain and devastation. Climate change is partly to blame – but so is poor governance. And while the former may be inevitable, the latter is not.
Azhar Azam is a geopolitical analyst with a keen interest in economy, climate change and regional conflicts.