European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to a framework deal with the US whereby the EU will be charged 15% tariffs on most imports, commit to purchasing US$750 billion in US energy exports and invest $600 billion in the US economy, some of which will be military purchases.
US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum exports will remain at 50% while the EU agreed not to tariff the US at all. The alternative to this lopsided arrangement was for Trump to impose his threatened 30% tariffs by August 1.
The EU’s macroeconomic strength was greatly weakened over the past 3.5 years as a result of the anti-Russian sanctions that it imposed in solidarity with the US on what had hitherto been its cheapest and most reliable energy supplier.
It was therefore already at a critical disadvantage in any prospective trade war. The EU’s failure to reach a major trade deal with China since Trump’s return to office, evident during their most recent summit late last week, made Sunday’s outcome a fait accompli in hindsight.
The end result is that the EU just subordinated itself as the US’s largest-ever vassal state. The US’s 15% tariffs on most imports will reduce EU production and profits, thus making a recession more likely.
The bloc’s commitment to purchasing more expensive US energy will become more onerous in that event. Likewise, its pledge to buy more US arms will undermine the “ReArm Europe Plan”, with the combined effect of the aforesaid concessions further ceding the EU’s already reduced sovereignty to the US.
This, in turn, can embolden the US to press for better terms in its ongoing trade negotiations with other countries. On the North American front, Trump envisages reasserting the US’ hegemony over Canada and Mexico via economic means, which can enable him to more easily expand “Fortress America” southward.
If he succeeds in subordinating Brazil, then everything between it and Mexico will naturally fall in line. This series of deals, along with last week’s one with Japan, would bolster Trump’s hand with China and India.
He ideally hopes to replicate his Japanese and European successes with those two Asian anchors of BRICS, which together represent around a third of humanity, but it can’t be taken for granted that he will.
Trump’s best chance of coercing them into similarly lopsided arrangements requires him to place the US in the most advantageous geo-economic position possible during their talks; hence, the need to rapidly build “Fortress America” through a series of trade deals, and then prove that his tariff threats aren’t bluffs.
As explained in this analysis, this variable and the US’s Kissingerian triangulation policy most significantly determine the future of their trade talks. If he fails, then Trump might not impose 100% tariffs on China and/or India, but some would still be expected.
Nevertheless, with Japan, the EU and likely “Fortress America” on his side, this “Global West” could insulate the US from some of the consequences.
The grand strategic importance of the EU subordinating itself as the US’s largest-ever vassal state is therefore that it places the US on the path of restoring its unipolar hegemony via sequential trade deals as it likely sets its sights on the Americas next before finally taking on Asia.
There’s no guarantee that the US will succeed, and a series of lopsided trade deals with major economies would only partially restore US-led unipolarity, but Trump’s moves still represent a possibly existential threat to multipolarity.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
The 2009 Greek debt fiasco marked the beginning of the end of the Euro. The 2022 orchestrated war in Ukraine, Mi6 and CIA terrorist attacks against Nordstream and this unequal treaty will accelerate the Japanifcation of the EU. Europe is toast. It has handcuffed itself to the sinking ship and surrendered independence. This is like Japan agreeing to the Plaza Accord – self defeating. European standards of living will plunge, de-industrialization is accelerating, inflation will rise and Europe will be left, after the dust settles, as nothing but a tourism industry, servicing American and Chinese economies. The evil empire has bought more time for itself with this cannibalization. The desperation of the act suggests time is not in favor of the USA.
Ursula, the witch and her cohorts selling out EU to the US, is a predictable outcome. EU politicians, journalists, generals, and elites are basically the fifth column working for the US interests. Many of them have business ties, second home, fat bank account and think thank jobs waiting for them in the US after they retire. It is pretty much the same with many elites in Asia, Australia, Latin America and Africa. That is how the US maintain its hegemony. That is why the US hate the way China conduct businesses because China give a deal that will let the elites profiteering but they don’t have to leave their countries since China paying them upfront, unlike the US who make them wait to cash out until they retire to the US.
The EU along with its people (and most americans) are skrewed. didn’t take china to do this to them. Took a few like senile Biden and Chump. Europeans elites will invest in the US and China. The rest will be poor and sl@ves to chinese manufacturing, AI machines and AGI.
Funny how EU stands up to China and caves to the US. MAGA
Translated to roosterese: ladida
1. I (little gelded rooster) am a boasting but total loser in life.
2. I (little gelded rooster) will never ever have kids even in my driest dreams.
3. My (little gelded rooster) life really really really sucks.
4. I (little gelded rooster) suffer from imaginary gigantism as well as from multiple personality disorder.
5. Every single second of every single day, I so wish that I could come.
6. The above five statements are the only truths I have ever told..🐔
The EU really had no leverage against Trump. He had only to threaten to pull Nato funding, or out of Nato altogether, for them to drop on their knees begging. Doubt he actually would have been able to do it, because of congress, but those cowards would’ve began panicking instantly and wetting their diapers.
Trump is on a roll. USA the most powerful country ever.
Only after Israel.
Israel does not even qualify for a civilized society. They cannot function without Western largesse. Their locusts of lobbyists and handlers understand that
MAGA by definition, means American is no longer great. Even Trumpty Dumpty understands that. This is desperation to commandeer markets. The USA is absolutely hopeless, like Israel, when it comes to compet ition. It lies, steals, cheats and kills. This is the modus operandi of the degenerated experiments in America and Israel.
Seems to be greater then EU, and soon China will cave in.
Russia is finished
Remember De Gaulle when France, in the midst of the Cold War, left NATO ,
as a matter of national pride? Can you imagine the French general,hero of the anti-Nazi resistance, going belly -up in front of an American millionaire, son of American millionaires, with the ego of a small-time South American dictator and the negotiating skills of a used-car salesman?
The current crop in Europe resemble more a group of school board trustees debating over whether to have pizza lunch.
No he let NATO unified command, but the Fr would still have fought with NATO vrs Russia. Mind you who trusts the French?
The US has exhausted all diplomatic means to maintianing its grip on power. It really can only shake down Western “allies” now, who are helplessly shackled to the sinking ship. They have purchased front row seats on the ship after it has hit the iceberg. For the rest of the globe, the unipolar era is gone. The West has run out of road and worn out its welcome. We can live happily without the West and its fake culture, its monstrous foreign policy will always be remembered as a dark stain on mankind. Their technology is being replaced. Their CIA social medias, thrown in the bin. Good riddance to Hollywood too. The world is a bigger place now. Even the slaves of America will wake up one day. And then the scam that is America would have truly run out of victims.
Comical Ali. Another bunch of nations kowtow to the USA.
How are things in Syria?
The EU has sacrificed itself at the altar of American hegemony. Too bad for them, they scored a big own goal.
Guess what Comical Ali, in most EU countries they dislike their leaders (UK-Starmer, Fr-Macron) and the EU even less. Alot of folks are cheering Trump on for exposed their uselessness and for them putting controls on the inet.
Ode to little gelded rooster who loves ‘western’ locker rooms:
There is an adorable pet troll/‘His’ name is little gelded rooster, a capon/‘He’ fondles and strokes his one true love/A gray keyboard from Amazon/‘His’ steadfast companion of 8 years/Thank the Lord/For we know little capon cannot come….just cannot come/‘He’ wants a gang/‘He’ wants a bang but alas/‘His’ beak wants to swallow and rim but alas/‘He’ dreams and dreams of rim ming three lady boys but alas/‘He’ cannot afford a vacuum pump to pucker up ‘his’ rim, alas/You can’t always get what you want/But if you try sometime/You get what you need….(Rolling Stones)🐔