China positions itself as an alternative to ‘unpredictable’ Trump

After the second world war, the US and its western allies created a set of international agreements and institutions to govern attitudes to mutual defense, economics and human rights. For decades this created stable alliances and predictable economic plans.

But, unlike his predecessors, Donald Trump believes that international organizations undermine US interests and sovereignty. He has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization, and there is speculation he could reduce the US commitment to the United Nations. US investment in NATO’s mutual defense pact remains under discussion.

But while Washington is busy sounding the retreat from the very world order it had a hand in building, Beijing is looking to increase its international role. Chinese leadership in international agencies affiliated with the UN has increased over the years, and so has its financial commitment to international institutions.

That’s not all. China is also a prominent member of trade coalitions such as the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the ten-member Brics group (led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These groups not only promote greater economic integration among its members, but may reduce members’ reliance on the US economy and the US dollar. Given an increasingly volatile US, China’s presence as the second largest economy in the world in these trade groups would be useful.

Now with the whole world negotiating new US trade deals, most nations see their relationship with the US as unstable. China sees this as a golden opportunity to position itself as a global counterbalance to the US. One of its policies is to “deliver greater security, prosperity and respect for developing countries” – and this is particularly relevant in African nations, where US aid is being reduced rapidly.

A Sino-US trade deal was reached in London on June 10, 2025. US tariffs on Chinese goods now stand at 55%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will remain at 10%. But how long this trade deal will last remains uncertain, when Trump has a tendency to change his mind.

Just a month earlier, on May 12, Washington and Beijing concluded a major trade accord in Geneva aimed at diffusing massive trade tensions. Unfortunately, this deal only lasted for 18 days before Trump started accusing China of violating the agreement.

But Trump’s tendency to escalate trade tensions and then diffuse them is not just China’s problem. His allies are also a victim of his frequent wavering. This leaves nations around the world, whether traditional US partners or not, in a crisis of not knowing what the Washington’s next move will be, and whether their economies will suffer.

In February 2025, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada but temporarily called off the tariffs a month later. Then in early April 2025, Trump raised tariffs on 60 countries and trading blocs, including traditional US allies such as the EU (20%), Japan (24%), South Korea (25%) and Taiwan (32%). Hours later, Trump unexpectedly rescinded these tariffs, but that caused massive damage to the global economy.

If there is a time that the world needs a more predictable partner, it would be now. But what’s needed isn’t a Trump-helmed US. A recent annual report on democracy and national attitudes indicates that, for the first time, respondents across 100 countries view China more favorably than they do the US. So, could China be the partner that the world seeks?

Why China needs trade

While the world needs a stable environment to promote economic growth, Beijing needs this stability for reasons that go beyond economics.

Unlike liberal democracies that derive their legitimacy through elections, a large part of Beijing’s legitimacy comes from its ability to deliver sustained economic prosperity to the Chinese people. But with a battered economy, the troubles first triggered by a real estate crisis in 2021, this task of maintaining legitimacy has become more difficult.

Exporting its way of out the economic slump may have been on Beijing’s books, as this was one of China’s traditional methods for promoting economic growth. But Trump’s trade war has made exporting an increasingly difficult prospect – especially to the US, which imports 14.8% of total Chinese exports.

As a result, fixing China’s economy has become a priority for the Chinese government, and it is because of this that Xi tours neighboring Asean countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia to promote trade and strategic plans to maintain economic stability.

Obstacles for China

Despite everything that China is doing, its image remains a problem for some. For instance, China has claimed sovereignty over the South China Sea and has built ports, military installations and airstrips on artificial islands across the region, despite territorial disputes with neighbors including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

But there are other concerns about China. The country’s rapid advancements in military technology, for example, have the potential to destabilize security within the Indo Pacific, potentially allowing China to take control of strategically placed islands to use as bases for its navy. China is also becoming a dominant hacking threat, according to UK cyber expert Richard Horne, which is likely to cause problems for worldwide cybersecurity.

Polish prime minister Donald Tusk once remarked: “With a friend like Trump, who needs enemies?” Many other national leaders are likely to share Tusk’s sentiment today, and may see opportunities to extend trade deals with China as an alternative to a turbulent relationship with Trump.

Chee Meng Tan is an assistant professor of business economics at the University of Nottingham.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.