Reuters reported earlier this month that the latest version of Trump’s resource deal with Ukraine includes an “Easter egg” that would give the US International Development Finance Corporation control over its international gas pipeline between Russia and the EU.
This prompted another Reuters report alleging that French and German firms are open to the possibility of resuming imports via that route. These reports together suggest that the US wants to control Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe.
The rationale would be to obtain further leverage over the EU amid their escalating trade war, buoy the EU’s struggling economy so that it’s a more stable market for American exports if a deal is reached and incentivize Russia into agreeing to a Ukraine war ceasefire by restoring some of its lost energy export revenue.
Furthermore, the US might also try to obtain control over the four Nord Stream pipelines, the scenario of which was analyzed here and here.
While control over the Kiev-owned Ukrainian pipeline could be obtained via Trump’s proposed resource deal with Ukraine, which might require forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to form a government of national unity if he doesn’t agree to this on his own, different means would be needed for the Russian-owned Nord Streams.
Hypothetically returning the estimated US$5 billion of seized Russian assets under American jurisdiction wouldn’t suffice for replacing the nearly $20 billion that Nord Stream 1 and 2 cost in total.
The additional $15 billion (or more if Russia demands such and the US agrees) could be obtained by pressuring the EU into releasing that amount of seized Russian assets under its jurisdiction.
If the EU refuses, then Russia and the US could agree to a creative financial arrangement whereby Russia transfers legal ownership of this sum to the US, the US transfers this same amount to Russia, and then Trump weaponizes the $15 billion of newly US-owned assets under EU jurisdiction as a chip in their trade war.
This formula for handling Moscow’s seized assets could also be utilized for facilitating Russia’s reported requested purchase of US-made Boeing jets, which a Bloomberg source said it would consider if and when a Ukraine ceasefire is in place.
Taken to its extreme, the estimated $300 billion worth of assets that the West seized from Russia over the Ukraine war could be transferred to the US via these means for large-scale purchases across a range of industries that would conceivably solidify the two sides’ strategic economic partnership in a post-conflict era.
Along those lines, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt recently said, “There is an incentive for Russia to end this war and perhaps that could be economic partnerships with the United States.”
Russia has survived the war without those seized assets and doesn’t expect them to be returned in full, perhaps not even at all, despite official rhetoric to the contrary. That is why this would potentially be the most mutually beneficial use of them in the context of the nascent Russian–US “New Detente.”
This creative financial diplomacy would also give the US considerable new leverage over the EU. US control over most Russian pipeline gas imports would incentivize the EU into concessions on their trade war.
At the same time, whatever seized Russian assets the US obtains legal ownership of from Moscow could serve to justify ramping up pressure on the bloc in this same context.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
US lost all leverage in Europe and is not asked anymore for almost any serious issue, with it NATO became obsolete dinosaurus too… future is EU in security, military, energy, trad it is not US nor Russia those days are gone.
Do that and the US loses Western Europe’s loyalty they had won in WW2 and Eastern Europe’s loyalty that they gained from forcing the USSR’s collapse.
While we at it, the Russians can control US pipelines too. Tame the silly Europeans.
Brilliant logic.
Blirriant rogic. No they can’t, unlike the Pwer of Siberia which can be cut with 1 cruise missile.
One would hope the Russians are not so gullible as to fall for American faustian bargains. This “detente” is built on quicksand. Anybody can tell you after Trump comes another Russia-hating circus. You simply cannot trust the US of A. This is just a show to re-arrange the deck chairs. Russia relying on Boeing planes? Handing Russian pipelines over to US custodianship? I hope this is not a joke. This Korybko guy is a hit and miss.
Correct. A gun (control of pipelines) can be pointed both ways.
How’s that boat trip across the Med going? Still got cell coverage?
Blah blah and then pull your pants down and open defecate.
On an inflatable boat in the Med?
No other options there, maroon!